Betting Breakdown: PGA Championship storylines

The 2025 PGA Championship tees off on Thursday from Quail Hollow, and wow do we have a lot to talk about. 

It feels like just yesterday Rory McIlroy was beating Justin Rose in a playoff for a Green Jacket in what will go down as one of, if not the, most historic golf tournaments of all time. 

But somehow it’s been one month, and we have arrived at the second men's major of the season. 

The venue for this 2025 PGA Championship is a familiar one as the PGA Tour schedule normally features this course . 

If you’re like my good pal Reno, and need a reminder, here a few major storylines to follow this week at the PGA Championship. 

Rory: Floodgates? 

Now that McIlroy has completed the career grand slam, one has to wonder if this could be a floodgates situation. 

Sometimes elite golfers break through with a big win that gets the monkey off their back. Then we see them go on a hot streak, winning multiple events in a short period of time. 

Just last year, we saw Xander Schauffele go from someone who couldn’t win the big one, to a two-time major winner. 

McIlroy enters this major free of the narrative/pressure on him having a 10-year long drought between majors. 

Now he arrives at Quail Hollow, a course he’s won at four times, looking to make it majors in a row, something he has already done when he won the PGA Championship and Open Championship in 2014. 

If he wins this week, McIlroy would become just the fourth player in men’s golf to win consecutive majors twice, joining a list with Bobby Jones, Ben Hogan, and Tiger Woods. 

Scottie and Bryson 

Why not put these two together at the Ryder Cup this fall…?

I digress.

Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau are the biggest threats to Rory this week in my opinion and the betting odds reflect as such.

Scheffler and DeChambeau are the only two other golfers listed shorter than 10-1 to win this week and for good reason.

Scheffler looked like the 2024-version of himself the last time we saw him as he was tying the PGA Tour single tournament scoring record in 8-shot victory in Texas two weeks ago.

This year has been an interesting one for the World No. 1. Prior to his last start, he had five top 10s in eight starts, but hadn’t shown that Scheffler-ceiling we saw in 2024.

However, Scheffler’s victory in Texas is a reminder that when he finds his form he’s tough to keep up with.

As for Bryson, he won in his last start too at LIV Korea, giving him his first win of the season and his fourth-straight finish inside the top 5 in a run that includes last month's Masters.

Bryson’s recent performances in majors can not be overlooked as the American enters with four top 10s in his last five majors, including a win at last year’s U.S. Open and a runner up finish at the 2024 PGA Championship.

Bryson has finished inside the top five in three of his last four PGA Championship’s as well.

Thomas headlines The Chase Pack 

There is a very clear Big Three this week in the betting odds, with a chase pack of five golfers listed between 18-1 and 25-1. 

Jon Rahm, the 2023 Masters champ, leads that group with +1800 odds to win this week, but it’s Justin Thomas at +2200 getting most of the attention. 

Thomas won the RBC Heritage last month, giving him his first win in 1,064 days. 

The two-time major winner will look to break another drought this week as he seeks his first major championship since winning the 2022 PGA Championship. 

Thomas’ first major, also the PGA, came in 2017, the last time this event was played at this golf course. 

This group of five also includes Xander Schauffele (+2200), Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg (+2500). 

Schauffele enters looking to defend a major for the first time in his career, while Morikawa seeks his third major and Aberg has the best odds to win this week amongst all other golfers in the field looking for their first major. 

Canadians in the field 

It’s been 22 years since Mike Weir became the first, and only, Canadian to wins a men's major. 

We have five Canadiens teeing it up this week with Corey Conners at +7000 sporting the best odds to join Weir. 

In his last two starts at Quail Hollow, Conners has two finishes inside the top 15 with his best finish coming in a tie for eighth in 2023. 

However, among the five Canadians in the field it is Mackenzie Hughes with the best week at Quail Hollow among the bunch with a tie for sixth in 2024. 

Hughes is 250-1 to win the PGA Championship and has the third best odds to finish as top Canadian on FanDuel.