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Intelligent Hockey: Best Bets for Saturday's slate
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To advance in the NHL playoffs, you need consistency. And if you go an entire week without a win, the chances greatly increase that you will soon be eliminated. Such is the case for the New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Dallas Stars. But not all winless teams entering the second weekend of the first round are equal. The Stars’ chances of advancing are long but viable, while the Islanders and Lightning can merely hope to stave off their inevitable demise. With pressure rising as the front-runners try to double-down on their series advantage, Saturday will be a highly entertaining day for hockey and betting.
Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders
It has been a bit of a strange series for the Carolina Hurricanes. Game 2 was one of the most dominant performances I can remember seeing in an NHL hockey game, no less a playoff game. The Hurricanes outshot the Islanders 32-6 at 5-on-5 and had 43 scoring chances to New York’s 10. The Islanders barely spent time in the offensive zone, yet they managed to create a three-goal lead before an epic collapse.
Bracketing Carolina’s commanding Game 2 were two contests where the Hurricanes were outshot at 5-on-5. The Islanders clearly have had trouble against the Hurricanes’ forecheck, and Carolina did submit a strong rush game in Game 3, especially with the counterattack. But in Games 1 and 3, New York did find offensive traction.
On Thursday night, the Hurricanes struggled with their defence below the circles, allowing the Islanders to win inside position. Carolina also sometimes struggled to sort out its coverage. But results carry the day. The series is 3-0, and the Islanders are on the verge of getting swept. And taking care of business is paramount for Carolina with its sights on a Stanley Cup run.
For much of the series, the Islanders have struggled to kill Carolina’s cycle, as the Hurricanes can spend extensive time in the offensive zone by endlessly retrieving the puck, winning board battles, and using their points to create rebounds and tip opportunities. The Hurricanes’ forecheck can be a catalyst for offence by creating turnovers from the walls and by applying pressure in the neutral zone. Ultimately, I have doubts about the Islanders’ breakout and forecheck besting the Hurricanes over three periods.
While Islanders goaltender Semyon Varlamov has been better than Carolina’s Frederik Andersen (Varlamov trails only Jeremy Swayman among playoff goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Expected), I think Carolina will create enough offence to close out the series.
Pick: Hurricanes Moneyline -196
Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
It is hard to stay on top in the NHL. For a three-year period, the Tampa Bay Lightning were the envy of the Eastern Conference. They captured two Stanley Cups and lost in their third straight trip. Well, Tampa Bay will always have the memories, because it looks like the arrow is pointing down on the franchise and the Florida Panthers are bringing the Lightning’s doom into focus.
While the road to winning the series was always narrow for the Lightning, mapping out a way for them to pull an upset did seem imaginable. Tampa Bay’s power play would need to be a difference-maker. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy would have to outplay Sergei Bobrovsky. And the Lightning breakout would need to spur the team’s 5-on-5 play when the Panthers tried to impose their forecheck. Well, none of that has happened. And here we are, with the Panthers having a chance to close out the series.
The Panthers excel at recovering the puck and creating off their forecheck, and the Lightning have not been able to foil Florida’s dump-ins. When the puck rims around, Florida has been forceful at having its F1 arrive on time to connect with the F2 in position to make a play.
The Lightning defencemen haven’t been able to make short passes to their outlets up the boards, and they have gotten swallowed up when they have tried to skate away from trouble. Coach Jon Cooper has looked to have his forwards stretch the zone, but the Panthers defencemen gap up well to disrupt the long pass. In the end, the Lightning spend a lot of time looking for ways to cleanly exit their zone, and too many times the puck has ended up in the back of their net.
When they do reach the offensive zone, obvious what the Lightning want to accomplish. They’ve had spurts of success by spreading Florida out and using picks as they arc above the circles, hoping that they get a fortunate bounce as the puck arrives in traffic. Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos have both scored goals by gaining inside position.
Still, the real story is the lack of potency from the Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov duo. At 5-on-5, they are being outshot and have a mere two goals at 5-on-5. Tampa Bay has two goals on the power play, one of which came in Game 1 with ten seconds left while trailing by two goals. With Point and Kucherov hampered at even strength and defanged at the man advantage, the Lightning’s secondary scoring is expected to make a larger-than-possible contribution. Especially if the team’s defence is shaky.
At 5-on-5 in every game this series, the Panthers have had a better expected goals percentage and more high-danger chances. Unless Bobrovsky plays poorly or the Lightning’s power play has a terrific outing, it is hard to imagine Tampa Bay taking a game.
The Panthers have a slightly different roster this year, but they are a team that doesn’t take its foot off the pedal in Game 4, as we saw last postseason when they swept the Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes. I think the Panthers would derive a lot of glee by booting in humiliating fashion their close-in-proximity rival.
Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights
The first round is often full of surprises and plot twists, and the Dallas Stars’ early stumbles are one of the biggest curiosities of the 2024 playoffs. The Stars had one of the best offences in the NHL this season, led by their explosive rush offence. With a mobile defensive group that can quickly morph into a four-man rush and a forward group capable of flying the zone and using one-touch passing to capitalize off the stretch pass, Dallas has the depth and firepower for an extended Cup run. Or so it seemed until they drew the Vegas Golden Knights.
Vegas is one of the best in the league at standing up at the blue line and clogging the neutral zone, and it has been quite effective at hindering Dallas in transition. This has forced the Stars to chip the puck in and generate offence off the forecheck and cycle. To the Golden Knights’ credit, their shot-blocking and ability to seal off the slot have stymied the Stars’ penchant for high-slot tips and rebound goals.
The other part of the story is Dallas’s uncharacteristic sloppiness. The Golden Knights have short-circuited the Stars on zone exits, leading to more times that the Stars must defend in their own end. Then there are Vegas’s rush looks, whether it is Dallas getting caught beneath the puck or a bad turnover feeding the Golden Knights’ counterattack.
Stars Goaltender Jake Oettinger wasn’t good in Game 1, but he had a better Game 2. The same can’t be said for Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski, who have not been making the type of impact that one would expect.
At all strengths, through two games, Hintz and Pavelski have identical numbers: four scoring chances at 5-on-5 and seven shot attempts. Both have looked sleepy at moments. Pavelski is a player who excels in the interior. Hintz is terrific in motion, a jetpack on skates. The Golden Knights’ defensive triumph has been stripping these two Stars of their powers and making them seem pedestrian. In their stead, other Dallas players have tried to step up.
Wyatt Johnston leads the Stars in shot attempts and Jamie Benn and Logan Stankoven rank first and second in high-danger chances. Stankhoven, especially, has been strikingly effective, a real pleasant surprise for Dallas given that he is a rookie. Nonetheless, while the Stars’ offence was fueled this season by the Pavelski line and the Matt Duchene triumvirate, these two lines have been stifled, apart from Jason Robertson. Coach Peter DeBoer has looked to shake things up with mixed results.
To win Game 3, the Stars need to try to create more plays from below the circles and engineer battles in the crease. The Golden Knights gap up well to deny entries, so if the Stars need to get the puck deep, they need the F1 to have support. In the first two games, that wasn’t always the case. Furthermore, too many times on clean entries in the first two contests, the Stars forfeited a shooting opportunity with a failed slot pass. Logan Thompson has a good GSAx in the postseason right now, but he also allowed Mason Marchment to score an atrocious goal in Game 1. The Stars need to be comfortable shooting from bad angles and use that to force Vegas to check and box them out around the low slot.
In Game 2, the Stars did a good job keeping Vegas off the power play. They didn’t control play as well at 5-on-5, which is something they will need to improve. If the Stars can support better on their forecheck and make smarter puck management decisions, they have the skill and depth to outmaneuver Vegas. This team is too good to fall to 0-3 against Vegas, and I am looking for a strong response on the road.