Intelligent Hockey: Highlighting some intriguing NHL player futures at FanDuel

Scoring milestones have become much easier to achieve. During the 2016-17 season, there were only three 40-goal scorers, with Sidney Crosby in first with 44. There was one 100-point player: Connor McDavid.

Six seasons later, things have radically changed. Nineteen players scored over 40 goals last season and five notched 50 or more. Eleven players amassed 100 or more points. Perhaps most strikingly, in 2021-22 there were 17 40-goal scorers, four players with 50 or more goals, and eight players with 100 or more points.

The tilt toward prolific scoring in the NHL is where I see value in alternative goal and point totals. The key for betting purposes is identifying which young players in their prime, or just entering their prime, could post gigantic stats this season despite perceived long odds.

Clayton Keller 40+ regular-season goals 2023-24 (+800)

My dad watches at least one hockey game a night and reads about hockey on his phone, but when I told him about the idea for this article, he admitted he had never heard of the Arizona Coyotes’ Clayton Keller. When you are on a team that has been abysmal over the last few seasons and plays in a 5,000-seat college arena, it stifles name recognition.

Keller has averaged a point a game over the last two seasons, quietly posting monster numbers in the desert. In 2022-23, he notched 37 goals (and finished in the top nine in even-strength tallies), albeit with a very high shooting percentage.

Even if regression inevitably reduces his shooting percentage this season, Keller’s shots per game have increased over the past three seasons. More shots can mitigate worse puck luck.

The Coyotes were dreadful last season. Their play on ice was mostly ugly. Only the Anaheim Ducks had a worse shot differential. But overlooked in all the losing is that, when Keller played with Nick Schmaltz and Barrett Hayton, the trio excelled. In the 464 minutes they logged together, they outshot opponents by 50 shots at 5v5 and had a 56.66 and 56.99 per cent expected goals and high-danger chances percentages respectively. And what makes me especially bullish about Keller this season is that I expect Arizona to be much improved. 

The Coyotes had a strong off-season. They acquired a bunch of quality veterans in Alexander Kerfoot, Jason Zucker, Nick Bjugstad, and Sean Durzi. They bought low on Matt Dumba, for whom I have not ruled out a career resurgence. And most importantly, the young players they drafted are promising.

While Hayton was capable as Keller’s pivot, there could be an even better option. Former No. 3 overall pick Logan Cooley is slotted to play No. 2 centre, but I see his potential being much higher than Hayton’s, and as we saw with the Seattle Kraken’s Matty Beniers, it is possible for a mega-talented rookie centre to lift his wing (Jared McCann) to 40-goal heights.

An improved defensive group and better teammates should help Keller see more opportunity at 5-on-5 and possibly on the power play. Even anticipating a shooting percentage dip, asking for three more goals from Keller this season is a great bet.

Jack Hughes 50+ regular-season goals 2023-24 (+800)

Because of his talent, Jack Hughes is quickly ascending to the company of the very best in the game. He isn’t McDavid because no one is McDavid, but among mortals, he belongs in the same working suite as Nathan MacKinnon, Matthew Tkachuk, and Auston Matthews. His speed, puck-handling, and vision allow him to transport the puck anywhere he wants on the ice and generate chances at will. Per Evolving Hockey, only six players finished ahead of the 22-year-old last season in expected goals.

When Hughes first came into the league, I wasn’t sure he would ever finish top three in goal-scoring because I didn’t know if the shot volume would be there. Well, that is no longer a question worth debating. Last season, Hughes finished top five in shots on goal, and three of the players in front of him played four more games.

The path from scoring 43 goals last season to 50 or more this season is less complicated than you might think for Hughes. Maybe the most astonishing stat from last season is that Jonathan Toews finished with the same number of power-play goals (9). Colorado Avalanche forward Valeri Nichushkin played 53 games, scored 17 goals, and somehow finished with more goals on the man advantage than Hughes. Hughes’s incredible goal numbers came despite his not lighting it up on the power play. It wouldn’t stun me if Hughes increased his shot volume on the man advantage, saw better puck luck, and finished in the top 10 among power-play goal-scorers this season.

Right now, Hughes is expected to play with Jesper Bratt and Tyler Toffoli (who finished last season with the Calgary Flames in the top 10 in expected wins above replacement) in what will almost certainly become one of the best lines in hockey. NHL analyst Mike Kelly has it ranked second-best among NHL first lines using a three-year, weighted model. Since Toffoli is a new addition to the Devils, we haven’t seen Hughes and Toffoli together before, but when Hughes plays with Bratt the results are magic. At 5-on-5, they outshot their opponents by 124 shots and posted a scorching 63.58 expected goals percentage.

The Devils will be a juggernaut this season, which will annoy many people who root for opposing teams. At the very least, bettors having a vested interest in New Jersey’s best player’s success is a way to lessen the pain.

Brady Tkachuk to record 100+ regular-season points 2023-24 (+830)

It’s fun to look at the hockeydb of superstar hockey players and cackle at the crazy numbers they put up in college. Cale Makar scored 49 points and 16 goals in his last season at UMass-Amherst! Jack Eichel notched 71 points in 40 games at Boston University! And then there is Brady Tkachuk. He scored eight goals and 31 points in 40 games. Needless to say, his strong, but not outrageous, numbers in his only year at college were not a harbinger of things to come.

Last season, Tkachuk scored 83 points in 82 games and tallied 35 goals. In offensive rating, he finished first on the Senators. In goals above replacement (GAR) and wins above replacement (WAR), only Claude Giroux was ahead of him among Ottawa forwards. Tkachuk is a blend of power and finesse, and he gets better each season.

One reason to love Tkachuk’s chances of hitting the century mark this season is that he may not be the best player on his own line. Tim Stutzle is the best player from the 2020 NHL draft and is quickly becoming one of the NHL’s top forwards. At 21, Stutzle nearly scored 40 goals last season, and when he played with Tkachuk (which was a lot) they dominated their adversaries in expected goals and high-danger chances.

Because health issues can derail an over bet on a player’s point total, there is a logic to betting unders. But Tkachuk has an excellent track record health-wise. Over the last three seasons, he has missed a total of three games. Only 11 players scored 100 points last season, but if Jack Hughes or Mitch Marner played a few more games they would likely be in that club too. If the admissions standards for accruing 100 points is lower than it has been in recent history and maybe 15 players hit that number this season, Tkachuk playing all or nearly all of the 82 games is a critical factor.

Ottawa’s offence may be awesome this season, and partly that could be because Tkachuk and his linemates get aid from the back end. The Senators enter the season having one of the best defensive groups in the Eastern Conference, rostering a bevy of blueliners (Thomas Chabot, Jakob Chychrun, and budding future No. 1 defenceman Jake Sanderson) who can function as playmakers to alleviate the pressure on the forwards and provide secondary scoring.

I think there is a good chance Tkachuk cracks 40 goals this season (+480 on FanDuel) because he is a volume shooter on the power play and at even strength. Only three players in the league had more shots than Tkachuk last season. I think adding sharpshooter Josh Norris (who missed last season due to injury) to the power-play mix also presents the opportunity for Tkachuk’s man-advantage assists to spike. At these long odds (+830), Tkachuk certainly has the talent and personnel surrounding him to make a serious stab at 100 points.