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Morning Coffee: Blue Jays over 86.5 wins a popular bet at FanDuel
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MLB Opening Day 2024 has arrived, people.
Technically, the 2024 MLB season began last week when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres split a two-game series in Seoul, South Korea.
The other 28 MLB teams were supposed to begin their season today.
That number is down to 24 teams set to open their season today after a couple of games were postponed due to weather.
Hopefully, the rest of the Opening Day slate isn’t affected.
The Dodgers are the obvious favourite to win the World Series at FanDuel after they made several splashes in the offseason, headlined by the additions of Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernandez, and James Paxton.
After spending around $1.2 billion this offseason, LA better be the favourite to win it all at FanDuel.
Meanwhile, Canadians can find the Toronto Blue Jays a little further down the list of the top choices to win the World Series at FanDuel this season.
Toronto is the eighth choice to win it all at 18-to-1.
Is this the year the Blue Jays win a World Series?
At the very least, FanDuel bettors are optimistic about the team’s chances to exceed expectations.
This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday, March 28th, 2024.
Blue Jays Over 86.5 Wins A Popular Bet At FanDuel
The Blue Jays went 89-73 last season – good enough for the third-best record in the American League East.
Toronto’s win total for this season is set at 86.5.
According to the traders at FanDuel, bettors are optimistic that the Blue Jays will exceed those expectations this season.
81 per cent of the stakes on Toronto’s win total at FanDuel are on the over 86.5.
That number jumps to 89 per cent when tracking results from Ontario bettors only.
However, it’s interesting to note that when it comes to their odds to make the playoffs, FanDuel bettors have opted to fade the Blue Jays.
89 per cent of the stakes in that FanDuel futures market are on Toronto to miss the postseason.
A year ago, the Blue Jays made the playoffs as Wild Card, only to be swept by the Minnesota Twins.
It’s interesting to me that this season, the heavy majority of the stakes are on Toronto to go over 86.5 wins but also to miss the playoffs altogether.
Of course, playing in the same division as the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles doesn’t help the Blue Jays’ chances on paper.
The Yankees are the favourite to win the AL East at +165.
The Orioles are the second choice in that market at +200.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox join the Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays among the top-10 choices to win the American League at FanDuel.
The fact that exactly half of the top-10 choices to win the AL play in the same division is a testament to the strength of the AL East on paper.
Per the FanDuel traders, the Yankees and Orioles are the second and third-most popular picks to win the World Series behind only the Dodgers, in terms of stakes.
It’s also worth noting that it wouldn’t be a surprise if Toronto struggled out of the gates this season.
The Blue Jays open the year with a 10-game road trip, beginning with a four-game series in Tampa.
Toronto is currently a +116 moneyline underdog for today’s opener with Jose Berrios scheduled to start opposite Zach Eflin for the Rays.
After the four-game set in Tampa, the Blue Jays will travel for three games against the Houston Astros, followed by three games against the Yankees.
Houston and New York are the top two choices to win the American League at FanDuel, while the Rays are also among the top-10 contenders.
Toronto won’t play its home opener until April 8th against the Seattle Mariners.
With a tough schedule on the road to open the season, it will be interesting to see what the Blue Jays’ record is by the time they return home to host the Mariners.
Anybody who already bet on Toronto to finish with 87 or more wins at FanDuel will be hoping for a strong start.
Anybody who didn’t bet the over yet might want to wait and see how they perform with a difficult schedule out of the gates, anticipating a lower adjusted season win total if the Blue Jays struggle through their first 10 games.