Morning Coffee: QBs go early in Round 1 of NFL Draft

With the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Atlanta Falcons selected Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr..

It took a little longer than most of us expected to get the major surprise that would shake up the first round.

Apparently, nobody was more surprised than the QB already on the Falcons roster in Kirk Cousins.

As somebody who was heavily invested in the over 4.5 quarterbacks to be selected in the first-round prop, it was a dream scenario to see five go inside the top-10.

The Denver Broncos drafting Oregon QB Bo Nix 12^th overall was icing on the cake as we cashed the FanDuel Best Bet in Thursday’s column with Nix to go in Round 1 at +125 odds.

Meanwhile, the best team in football somehow got even better with a major addition at the end of the first round.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday, April 26^th, 2024.

Quarterbacks Go Early in Round 1 Of NFL Draft

The Kansas City Chiefs are the back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

They’re also the second choice to win it all again this upcoming season at +600 odds.

Anybody who already locked in a wager on Kansas City to three-peat must be thrilled with how the end of the first round of the NFL Draft played out last night.

With the No. 32 overall pick in-pocket, the brain trust that built a modern-day dynasty offered their AFC rival a trade to move up four spots and get the wide receiver they coveted.

The Chiefs traded picks No. 32, 95, and 221 to the Buffalo Bills in exchange for picks 28, 133, and 248.

Kansas City then selected Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy with the 28^th overall pick.

Perhaps the Bills flip the extra assets they got from the Chiefs to the San Francisco 49ers in a trade for Brandon Aiyuk or to the Cincinnati Bengals for Tee Higgins.

Wide receiver is an obvious position of need for Buffalo.

Regardless of what the Bills do with the extra draft capital, the Chiefs brain trust is clearly confident their AFC rival just helped them get much better on paper.

Meanwhile, the biggest surprise of the first round was the Falcons’ selection of Penix Jr. at eighth overall.

Per the traders at FanDuel, Penix Jr. to go No. 8 overall closed at 50-to-1 odds.

Penix to go in the top-10 was 17-to-1.

Rather than bolstering a roster that is already favoured to win the NFC South at FanDuel with a player that could contribute immediately, Atlanta used its top-10 pick on the succession plan for the veteran QB they just signed to a four-year, $180 million contract in free agency.

Apparently, Cousins was “disappointed” by the decision.

Listen to how Falcons GM Terry Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris responded to a reporter question about how Cousins reacted when he found out about the pick.

As somebody who recommended a play on over 4.5 QBs to be selected in the first round to anybody who would listen to me, I was thrilled with Atlanta’s decision at 8.

I also fully understand why Falcons fans wouldn’t share that sentiment.

Two picks later, the Minnesota Vikings selected Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy with the 10^th overall pick.

Over 4.5 quarterbacks selected in Round 1 hit cashed within the top-10 picks.

Then two picks later, the Broncos selected Nix with the 12^th overall pick.

As it turned out, Nix to go in Round 1 at +125 never even came close to being a sweat.

Looking forward, FanDuel has a long list of markets available for Round 2 of the NFL Draft.

That list includes wide receiver being the favourite in the position of team’s first drafted player market for the Bills.

There’s also markets for the first running back drafted, the first safety drafted, and the first linebacker drafted, as there wasn’t a single player from either of those three positions selected in the first round.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I’m running it back with another wager on the Stanley Cup Playoffs after a 5-1 start with the NHL postseason picks.

I’m still bitter about how Wednesday’s parlay picks played out, but let’s just keep that between you and me.

The FanDuel Best Bet is Adrian Kempe over 2.5 shots on goal at -174 odds.

I don’t love the juice on this prop, but Kempe has been absolutely money through the first two games of the series between the Los Angeles Kings and the Edmonton Oilers and I expect that to continue tonight.

After registering one goal, two points and five shots on net in Game 1, Kempe was even better in Game 2 when he scored twice on seven shots on goal.

We’ll need less than 50 per cent of that shots on goal production from Game 2 to cash our FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s slate.

Anybody who doesn’t love the juice could consider a Same Game Parlay with Kempe 3+ shots on goal and Leon Draisaitl to record 2+ shots on goal or even 1+ shot on goal depending on the price you are trying to find.

All of those should be good bets, but I’m sticking with Kempe over 2.5 shots on goal as my FanDuel Best Bet for Friday’s NHL slate.

Meanwhile, anybody looking for a longshot at better odds might consider the FanDuel Same Game Parlay posted below.

Sure, that shots on goal SGP is nearly 26-to-1 for a reason, but I’m confident that each individual leg has a legitimate chance to hit tonight and cashing that lottery ticket would be a fun way to capitalize on a loaded slate of Stanley Cup Playoff games tonight.

Enjoy the action and have a great weekend!