Setting The Pick – Early playoff takeaways

NBA playoff basketball, pump it into my veins. 

The defensive intensity has really gone up a notch, refs are letting the boys play, and we’re getting superstar moments all across the association. 

If you weren’t sure how different these games have been compared to the regular season, consider this one stat from ESPN’s Zach Lowe: All 16 playoff teams are averaging less than 96 possessions per game, lower than the slowest team during the regular season, the New York Knicks. 

Certain players and coaches elevate when the lights are brightest, while others fail to adjust. 

Experience is always an asset in the playoffs, but youthful exuberance has been the difference in multiple series. 

Through the first week of playoff basketball, here are three observations I’m left with. 

1) Boston has better path, Nuggets better bet 

Boston might have the easier path, but Denver has more championship gumption. 

The Los Angeles Lakers deserve more credit for their performance, with Anthony Davis only behind Joel Embiid in playoff scoring and LeBron James still playing like one of the most influential floor generals in his age-39 season. 

Regardless of their play, the Nuggets somehow have snatched their souls again, opening back-to-back series up 3-0. 

What makes this year’s matchup so crushing is that L.A. has held double-digit leads in the first three games. 

But as if it was written in a script, Denver managed to claw back in every third quarter, anchored by the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic. 

The Nuggets’ starting lineup is collectively plus-35 or better in the second half during these playoffs with no other team’s starting unit in the same vicinity. 

They’ve gone a perfect 4-for-4 from the field and 4-for-4 from the line during their limited clutch time minutes so far. 

Perhaps their bench is susceptible, but when the stakes are highest, Denver has a better closing five. 

In the East, Boston continues to be heavy favourites to win the Conference at -190. 

Their opponents have significantly more flaws than Denver’s challengers out West. 

That said, Boston fans have a right to be concerned watching them lose as 14.5-point favourites against an injury-riddled Heat team. 

Will Boston get eliminated in Round 1? 

Absolutely not. 

But with Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier inactive, the talent disparity heavily favours the Celtics. 

They can argue that Miami won’t shoot 53.5 per cent from deep to steal another game, but where were the defensive adjustments in Game 2 to force the Heat into different offensive looks? 

If these two teams got fast-tracked into the Finals today, I’d put my trust in the defending champs (+210 to win the Championship). 

Denver’s path may be more jagged, but I still think they beat any opponent that challenges them out West. 

2) Minnesota showing their ceiling

Phoenix opened the playoffs as one of three lower-seeded teams priced as series favourites. 

They’re now +350 to make it to Round 2. 

After winning the regular season series 3-0 with two critical wins down the stretch, the Suns have wilted on Minnesota’s homecourt.

They’re fumbling dribbles off themselves, coming up short on most of their jumpers, and simply not matching Minny’s intensity. 

Ahead of this series, the Wolves were doubted for their lack of offensive playmaking, particularly in the fourth quarter. 

As it stands, none of that is on pace to be a factor. 

So far, over the first week of the playoffs, the Timberwolves are first in free-throw rate and second in offensive rebounding. 

Their effective field-goal percentage as a team sits seventh in the NBA, and it’s been good enough since they’ve held Phoenix to the second worst offensive-rating so far. 

Minnesota has taken 13 more shots from the field and eight more attempts at the line so far. 

They’re winning the possession battle, forcing Phoenix to have the most turnovers of any playoff team. 

The Wolves are also leading the league in shot frequency at the rim and fourth in corner three-point attempts – the two zones analytics gurus will tell you are most coveted. 

Anthony Edwards has done an admirable job making the right plays on offence and getting his teammates involved, averaging 7.0 assists, well above his career average of 4.1 APG. 

Minnesota was the league’s best defence this season, and they’ve shown over the first two games, their strengths on that end are enough to overcome any offensive deficiencies they’d have against other opponents. 

They opened the playoffs at 10:1 to win the West and are now down to +650. 

3) Knicks-Sixers and Mavericks-Clippers will go 7

We’ve gotten five games in total from these two series, and each has been a slugfest. 

There’s been a lot of talk about 90s-style basketball on display during this year’s postseason – these four teams are responsible for much of that discourse.

Both series sit in the bottom three of pace, well below the NBA’s regular season average. 

All four teams have a balanced mix of offensive and defensive proficiency with the type of superstar who can elevate their team to championship potential. 

Last year, only three of the 15 playoff series went the distance; there was just one in the first round. 

As it stands, the Sixers and Knicks are +120 to reach Game 7 while the Mavericks and Clippers are +175. 

Watching all five games, I can’t tell you which team has an indisputable advantage. I picked the Mavericks to win ahead of the series, and now I just pray. 

It’s not often you get such evenly contested battles in the first round.

Sit back, bust out the popcorn, and enjoy the show.