The New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs have already clinched their playoff berths entering Week 14.

However, both teams still have work to do as they aim to lock down the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences.

For all of the talk about how Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers posed a legitimate threat to the Saints’ supremacy atop the NFC South heading into the year, that simply hasn’t been the case.

New Orleans can clinch a division title with a win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay still needs a strong finish in order to clinch a Wild Card spot.

 

Here are our best bets for Week 14 in the NFL.

 

Domenic Padula: New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles - Under 43.5

The Saints are a combined 8-0 against the spread without Drew Brees dating back to last season.

I locked in New Orleans -6.5 earlier in the week, but that number has since climbed all the way to -8.

Rather than take the Saints -8 here, I’ll pivot to the total and take the under 43.5

Philadelphia hasn’t hit its implied team point total since Week 6, which is the longest streak in the NFL.

Now they have asked a rookie second round pick to make his first NFL start against the league’s top-ranked defence.

The Eagles have struggled to run the football all year, while New Orleans hasn’t allowed a rushing score since Week 7.

The Saints will force Jalen Hurts to try to beat them with his arm.

How do you think that will work out?

After watching how terrible the Philadelphia offence looked with Carson Wentz at quarterback, there is no way I can trust the rookie against this defence.

Meanwhile, with Taysom Hill at quarterback I expect Sean Payton to lean heavily on his rushing attack on offence.

ill, Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray will all help New Orleans move the ball efficiently and dominate time of possession.

I’ll take the under in this one.

Pick: Saints at Eagles - Under 43.5

Chris Amberley: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sure things simply do not exist in the NFL, but the closest thing to one seems to be Tom Brady against the spread following a loss.

TB12 is 34-12 ATS in his career off a loss, including a 4-0 ATS record this season.

Digging deeper, Brady is 26-3 ATS as a favourite of seven points or less following a defeat, which is simply incredible.

That streak nearly ended two weeks ago versus the Chiefs, but Brady orchestrated a furious fourth quarter rally to pull the Buccaneers within 3 points and covered as a 3.5-point underdog.

This week, Tampa Bay clashes with a Minnesota team that is ill equipped to take advantage of Brady’s biggest weakness.

The one common trend in all of the Bucs losses this season is that they’ve come against teams that rush the passer well.

Minnesota simply does not fit into that category.

The Vikings rank 24th in adjusted sack rate, bottom-10 in QB hit rate, and 30th in pass rush productivity.

Give Brady time to throw and he’ll pick you apart.

Per Pro Football Focus, Brady has an adjusted completion percentage of 79.0 in a clean pocket, compared to just 58.2 when facing heat.

His TD-to-INT rate is 25-6 with no pressure, compared to 3-5 when under duress.

Tampa Bay is 5-0 this season with a 19.4-point average margin of victory versus teams that rank outside the top-10 in pass rush.

I’ll take the Bucs coming off a loss and coming off a bye week.

Pick: Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Vikings

Luke Bellus: New York Giants +2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals + Under 45.0

Last week was a massive swing and a miss on my end.

So this week I’m coming back looking to give you not one, but two winners.

I’m buying into the defence of the New York Giants after they took down Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks.

After starting the season 1-7, New York has ripped off four-straight wins, and I believe they will make it five-straight this week.

Arizona’s Kyler Murray just hasn’t seemed right since he banged up his shoulder a few weeks ago against the Seahawks.

Since that game, Murray has thrown for just 343 yards and three touchdowns, while also turning the ball over three times.

His impact on the ground game has really taken a hit.

After averaging 9.7 carries per game through the first 10 weeks, Murray has rushed just 15 times in his last three games.

With Murray not having an impact on the running game, Arizona has suffered and is 0-3 in those games.

Meanwhile, the Giants defence has been great - holding every team they’ve played to under 26 points since Week 6.

I trust this Giants defence to hold Murray and the Cardinals to a low number, and force a turnover or two to put the offence in a good position to score.

The under has gone 9-3 in Giants games this season, while the Cardinals have had eight of their 12 games fall short of the number.

This game is a game of two teams on different paths: Arizona has lost four of their last five, while the Giants have suddenly been able to turn around their season.

Take the Giants to win and take the under.

You can get this at +241 if you parlay them.

Pick: New York Giants +2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals + Under 45.0