Jan 28, 2022
Best Bets: TSN EDGE Staff Best Bets for Championship Sunday
With only two games on the NFL schedule, there are more eyes on each of Sunday’s Conference Championships than at any other point in the season besides the Super Bowl. Rest assured, football fans, we have put in the work in an effort to give you an edge this weekend.

With Championship Sunday on the horizon, the reality is setting in that this is our final weekend with multiple NFL games this season.
Last week, we took advantage of a four-game slate by going 4-for-4 with our picks.
While we can’t tell you that we will sweep the board again on Sunday, we have put in the work in an effort to try to give our readers an edge this weekend.
With only two games on the schedule, there are more eyes on each of Sunday’s games than at any other point in the season besides the Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs were listed as a seven-point favourite against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game for most of the week, with the total set at 54.5.
As of Friday afternoon, we finally saw that number move to Kansas City -7.5.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams remain a 3.5-point favourite against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, with the total set at 45.5.
Here are some of our best bets for Sunday’s games.
Domenic Padula: Tyler Higbee Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
While I tweeted out a couple of player props that I like throughout the week, Higbee to go over 39.5 receiving yards remains my favourite of them heading into the weekend.
The Rams’ tight end really came on as he and Matthew Stafford got on the same page towards the end of the season.
Over his last six games, Higbee has finished with 48, 41, 69, 55, 46 and 51 receiving yards.
He’s gone over 39.5 in six straight, averaging 51 receiving yards per game over that span, including six catches for 55 yards and two touchdowns in L.A.’s Week 18 meeting with the 49ers.
The San Francisco defence will have its hands full dealing with Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson, which should open up some room over the middle of the field for the veteran tight end.
I’ll take Higbee to go over 39.5 receiving yards as my best bet for Championship Sunday.
Chris Amberley: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams – Under 46
It’s going to be next to impossible for this week’s Conference Championship games to live up to the offensive standard set last Sunday in the Divisional Round.
Especially in the 49ers-Rams matchup.
For starters, both of these teams are excellent defensively. The Niners are fresh off holding the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys – two top-six offences per DVOA – to a combined 27 points.
Meanwhile, the Rams held the Arizona Cardinals to 11 points in the wild-card round, and surrendered only 13 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first 57 minutes of play in the Divisional Round before stumbling late.
Offensively, L.A. would prefer to push the pace, but the same cannot be said for San Francisco. The Niners want to run the ball and bleed the clock dry. They ran at the league’s third-highest rate in the regular season, and averaged the seventh-fewest plays per game.
That strategy worked well for San Fran in two matchups versus the Rams. They racked up 75 total rushing attempts, and held the ball for an average of 12 minutes more than their division rival per game.
Six of the Niners’ last seven contests have fallen short of the total, including both playoff games by an average of 17 points.
Four of San Fran’s last five outings have failed to exceed 40 total points, despite four of their opponents being playoff teams.
Some bettors would assume that the Rams’ high-powered offence would lead to the majority of their games going over the total, but the under is actually 9-6 over their past 15 games.
I’ll bet on that trend to continue and take the under in the NFC Championship Game.
Luke Bellus: Cincinnati Bengals To Be The Highest Scoring Team On Sunday +450
I like the Bengals this week.
I think they have what it takes to beat the Chiefs, and I believe if they do beat K.C. it’ll be in a shootout.
The last time these teams met it in Week 17, it was the Bengals walking away with a 34-31 win.
I think that they can break 30 points again in the rematch, and if they beat the Chiefs, it might be enough to be the highest-scoring team of the week.
Looking at the NFC Championship Game, I think we can all agree that game should be lower scoring than this one.
So after crossing the Rams and the 49ers off my list, I’ll take the Bengals to be the highest-scoring team of the week at +450 over their odds to beat the Chiefs straight up at +285.
On Sunday, I’ll be on the Bengals +7.5, but in an attempt to hit a home run, I’ll also be taking a stab at this prop at +450.
Eric Cohen: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs - Over 54.5
Yes, the total is very high for the AFC Championship Game, but it’s for good reason.
The Buffalo Bills went into Arrowhead Stadium last week with the No. 1-ranked scoring defence and gave up 42 points.
In fact, the Chiefs have averaged 42 points over their last four home games and show no signs of slowing down.
In addition to their scoring totals, Kansas City has struggled to keep its opponents off the board, which has led to their total soaring over.
It doesn’t get any easier for their defence this week, with the Bengals in town as they torched the Chiefs defence for 34 points in their previous meeting.
Kansas City got burned last week by big plays, as Gabriel Davis lit them up for 201 yards and four touchdowns.
In their Week 17 loss to the Bengals, it was Ja’Marr Chase who had the huge day against this defence, with 266 yards and three touchdowns.
The one issue plaguing the Bengals is their much-maligned offensive line. Joe Burrow was sacked four times in the first meeting between these two teams. He was sacked nine times last week and still found a way to beat Tennessee. However, if the Chiefs elect to blitz, it could leave skilled Bengals play makers with favourable one-on-one match ups down the field.
The bottom line is that I don’t expect a lot of stops in this game, as both Patrick Mahomes and Burrow have been pretty close to flawless so far in this post season.
Don’t forget Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce also show up with monster performances when the stakes are largest, as the Bills found out the hard way last week.
Give me the over 54.5.
Evan Render: Joe Burrow Over 287.5 Passing Yards
When this AFC Championship was confirmed, the first thing that came to mind was points.
This one surely has all of the makings of a high-scoring affair, and the oddsmakers agree.
It has the second-highest total in the playoffs at 54.5.
Last week’s Divisional Round showdown between the Chiefs and Bills is the only game that closed with a higher total.
So what does that tell me?
Joe Burrow will probably be throwing equally, if not more, than he has these last few weeks.
Burrow threw for a ridiculous 446 passing yards against K.C. in Week 17, and somehow hit 348 yards against the Tennessee Titans last week in a game that finished with just 35 combined points.
It’s pretty realistic to envision a scenario where the Bengals are trailing heading into the fourth quarter, which is a spot where Burrow will have to come out firing, just like he did in the last meeting between these two teams when Kansas City got ahead early. He’s averaging 338 yards per game over his last seven contests, which includes the two playoff wins.
The Bengals are not going to win this game on the legs of Joe Mixon, or the stinginess of a mediocre defensive unit.
It’s Burrow’s arm.
The Chiefs secondary hasn’t exactly looked like the Legion of Boom this season, giving up the sixth-most passing yards per game in the NFL, which is the most among teams that qualified for the playoffs.
Right below them on the list?
Cincinnati.
This number seems too low to pass up.
Joe Burrow over 287.5 passing yards is the play.