Week 16 in the NFL kicked off with the Tennessee Titans rallying from down 10-0 to beat the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 as a +160 underdog.

NFL favourites still lead 139-83-1 straight up this season, but underdogs are 117-104-2 against the spread.

The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys have been the best teams to bet on against the spread with identical 11-3 ATS records.

Meanwhile, the New York Jets, Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars are all 4-10 ATS this season.

Here are some of our best bets for Week 16 in the NFL.

Domenic Padula: A.J. Dillon Over 45.5 Rushing Yards

The Packers are a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread at Lambeau Field this season.

While they’ve got the NFC North title wrapped up, Green Bay is in pole position to earn the top seed in the conference, home field advantage and a first-round playoff bye, so there’s no reason to think they will let their foot off the gas at Lambeau Field against the Cleveland Browns on Christmas Day.

The Packers should win and cover against a Browns’ team that is still dealing with COVID and injury absences, and had to travel on a short week after an ugly loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.

While I like Green Bay -7, I think the better bet is to take Dillon to go over 45.5 rushing yards.

Aaron Jones is expected to play on Sunday despite being limited by a knee injury in practice.

Still, the Packers could do better than pushing Jones’ work load in the frozen tundra against an opponent that they should beat, so Dillon should be in line for more touches than he had in last week’s win over the Baltimore Ravens.

Dillon had rushed for 46 yards or more in six straight games before getting just seven carries for 22 yards versus Baltimore.

He should be rested and ready for a busy day on Saturday against a Cleveland defence that has allowed 105.6 rushing yards per game this season.

I like Green Bay to win and cover, but I think the best bet is Dillon to go over 45.5 rushing yards.

Chris Amberley: Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders Under 41.5

It’s not fun rooting for the under in NFL games, but sometimes you just can’t help yourself from betting against two anemic offences in the same game.

That’s especially true when one of those team’s is quarterbacked by Drew Lock.

Lock has more turnovers (19) than touchdown passes (16) in his past 13 starts, and has failed to lead the Broncos to more than 21 points in nine of those outings.

Last year, he had the worst passing grade of any starting quarterback in the NFL.

This season, he hasn’t been much better.

Lock is completing only 55 per cent of his passes in 2021, with an adjusted yards per attempt of 5.8. For context, that’s more than three yards per attempt fewer than Aaron Rodgers, and 1.5 yards fewer than his own teammate Teddy Bridgewater, who he’s filling in for due to injury.

On the other side of the ball, the Raiders offence is broken. They’ve scored more than 17 points just once in their last seven games, and needed 166 penalty yards by their opponent to help them do so.

Last week versus a Browns team full of backups, Las Vegas managed just 16 points and now has to face a Denver defence that’s surrendered 15 or fewer points in three of its past four contests.

Also working in favour of the under in this spot is the snails pace the Broncos like to play at. Denver games average the fifth fewest combined plays and an NFL low 37.7 points.
The under has hit in seven of the Broncos’ past eight contests, and in 11 of its 14 games overall.

I’ll bet on that trend to continue and take the Under 41.5 in Sunday’s game between Denver and Las Vegas.

Luke Bellus: Jonathan Taylor Over 121.5 rushing + receiving yards

I’m going to steal a method from my man Dom Padula for this week and ride with Jonathan Taylor.

As a Colts fan, watching Taylor run through the entire league this season has been a treat.

And although I think they have a great shot at winning this weekend, something about the entire public betting them down from four-point underdogs to nearly a pick'em has me worried.

So I’m taking the over on this prop.

Taylor’s rushing yards alone would cash this prop three of the last four weeks and I expect him to be involved with the passing game against this Cardinals defence.

On average, Arizona is allowing 93.86 rushing and 41.43 receiving yards per game to the running back position this year.

Last week Craig Reynolds of the Detroit Lions ran for 112 on 26 carries.

We’ve also seen elite running backs take advantage of this defence throughout the season.

Christian McCaffrey had 95 rushing with 66 receiving yards in Week 10, while Aaron Jones had 110 yards from scrimmage against them in Week 8.

Don’t look now, but a few more big games down the stretch and this Colts running back might win MVP.

He makes another statement this week.

Take the over.