For the first time all season, a new name appears at the top of Bob McKenzie’s draft rankings.

And for the first time since the NHL Draft betting market opened up on May 11, Shane Wright is no longer the overwhelming favourite to go first overall.

THE NUMBERS

When the NHL Draft betting market opened on May 11, the first pick seemed like a lock as Wright opened as a -750 favourite.

That number peaked on May 17, when his odds shifted to -900 and was followed up by a move to -1100.

This means at his peak, Wright was given the implied odds of 91.67 per cent to be selected with the first pick of the draft.

Meanwhile, when the market opened, Juraj Slafkovský was a longshot at +1500 to go first overall.

While his number slowly dropped as time went on, he never got below +450. Until today.

PLOT TWIST

TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie sent a shock through the hockey community on Tuesday with Slafkovský taking the number one spot by a slim margin over Wright on his final draft rankings of the season.

Before we move any further, it’s important to note that this isn’t McKenzie predicting the draft order.

This means five of 10 scouts surveyed by TSN ranked the 6-foot-4 Slovak left winger at No. 1, while four scouts slotted the Kingston Frontenac centre in the top spot.

This also means if you surveyed 10 other scouts, you might get 10 different opinions and that could lead to different results.

Click here to read McKenzie’s final draft ranking.

REACTION

While the move to No. 1 on the list doesn’t mean Slafkovský will go first overall, it has led to a drastic shift in the betting market.

Following the published list, Wright’s number to go first sunk like a rock in water.

As of writing this article, the forward is hovering around -320, while Slafkovský is suddenly just a +140 underdog to go ahead of Wright, first overall.

The -320 number now gives Wright a 76.19 per cent implied probability of being selected first in the draft, while Slafkovský is hanging around 41.67 per cent.

DO YOU GET DEJA VU?

If this story sounds familiar, it’s because we saw something slightly similar last week in the NBA.

ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski lit the entire NBA betting market on fire the morning of the draft when he reported who the first three picks of the draft would be.

We saw swings in the betting market that I had never seen before and it was all for nothing as Wojnarowski got it wrong!

Again, we must note that these are two different situations. Wojnarowski was reporting on the opening three picks of the night (and ended up reporting the correct player to go first overall several hours later), while McKenzie is simply putting forward a list of rankings based on conversations he has had with scouts.

Where certain teams sit in the draft order is not a factor in the survey of scouts and TSN’s ranking of players.

But still, when a very well-respected insider such as Bob McKenzie puts out a ranking ahead of the NHL Draft, it’s not surprising to see it have ripple effects on the betting market.

WHAT NOW?

So, what’s the play?

If you believe that Wright will go first overall, perhaps this is an opportunity to buy low on a guy who was once given over a 90 per cent chance to be selected first overall.

Unfortunately, if you’re a believer in Slafkovský, you have probably missed your best opportunity to bet him to go first overall at a long number.

Whether you’re comfortable betting him at +140 isn’t for me to decide, but if I was a betting man (which I clearly am), I would steer clear of this for the time being and let things develop more ahead of the draft.