The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off their first loss of the season, but at 4-1, they remain the Super Bowl favourite.

The Buffalo Bills are also coming off their first loss of the season, but at 4-1, they aren’t even among the top eight choices to win the Super Bowl.

In terms of perception, last week’s 26-point loss to the Tennessee Titans certainly didn’t help the Bills.

Buffalo is the only team in the NFL with a record of 4-1 or better and a negative point differential this season.

The Bills could make a statement with an upset win over Kansas City as a 5.5-point underdog at home on Monday night.

However, that will certainly be easier said than done.

The Chiefs have never lost against the spread with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback on Monday night.

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Line: Kansas City -5.5
Total: 55

Monday Night Mahomes

Mahomes is 4-0-1 ATS in Monday night games.

The 2018 NFL MVP is 27-13-1 ATS in his career overall.

Kansas City will be without wide receiver Sammy Watkins, but Mecole Hardman, DeMarcus Robinson and even Byron Pringle are more than capable of filling the void left by Watkins behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in the pass game.

Plus, the Bills’ defence has struggled early this season, giving up 28.4 points per game.

Last week, Buffalo gave up a combined six touchdowns to Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. Now they have to go up against Mahomes and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

The Bills will once again be without cornerback Levi Wallace, while Pro Bowl cornerback Tre’Davious White is listed as questionable.

Buffalo’s defence has blitzed on 40.6 per cent of its snaps – the third-highest rate in the NFL entering Week 6.

Meanwhile, Mahomes has completed 70 per cent of his passes for 9.8 yards per attempt against the blitz so far this season.

Head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier might want to re-evaluate their approach as they attempt to slow down Mahomes in this one.

Meanwhile, the rookie CEH was put on notice when Kansas City signed Le’Veon Bell to a one-year deal.

Bell won’t play in this game, but Edwards-Helaire should be motivated against a Bills’ run defence that ranks in the bottom third of the league.

Bills Leaning Heavily On Allen

On the other side of the football, it will be on Josh Allen to try to keep up with Mahomes.

Allen is coming off his worst performance of the season against Tennessee, but he still threw a pair of touchdowns in that loss.

Stefon Diggs has averaged a career-high 101.8 receiving yards per game so far this season.

My guess is that Allen will continue to force the ball to Diggs in an effort to capitalize on big plays and stretch out a Kansas City defence that has been pretty good against the pass early on despite a poor performance in last week’s loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.

The problem is that with the defence struggling, Buffalo will likely have to continue to lean far too heavily on its young quarterback.

Can the Bills score enough points to keep up with the Chiefs? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Back The Chiefs

Kansas City is coming off an upset loss to the Raiders, so I’m counting on a bounce-back effort on the road in this spot.

Andy Reid’s teams have done well for the most part with extra time to prepare.

Considering the injuries in their secondary and how bad they have looked early on this season, I can’t trust the Bills’ defence to slow down Mahomes enough to cover less than a touchdown.

I’ll take the Chiefs to win and cover.

Pick: Chiefs -5.5