The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were not one of the NFL’s best franchises heading into this season. In fact, they were probably the worst.

In their 45 years of existence, Tampa Bay had the lowest winning percentage (.393) of any active team in NFL history. They had the second-longest playoff drought at 12 years and were coming off their third straight losing season at 7-9.

Only four teams have had a losing record the year before winning the Super Bowl. Before the Buccaneers, zero franchises reached the big game while holding the league’s worst active winning percentage.

But when Tom Brady made the jump from New England to Tampa last March, he changed everything for the Bucs, as star quarterbacks often can.

The same is true for the Kansas City Chiefs. Under Alex Smith from 2013 to 2017, K.C. reached the playoffs in four of the five seasons but did not advance past the divisional round. Since Mahomes took over as starter in 2018, the Chiefs have gone 38-10 during the regular season and have three straight AFC Championship appearances while gunning for their second consecutive Lombardi Trophy. Dominance is an understatement for what Mahomes and the Chiefs have done lately.

Sure, not every Super Bowl winning team needs a Hall-of-Famer under centre. But it certainly helps. And what better theatre than to get the best of all-time taking on the best of right now Sunday?

With quite possibly the most intriguing quarterback showdown in any Super Bowl ever, here is a statistical look at the continued dominance of Brady and Mahomes.

Watch Super Bowl LV LIVE Sunday on TSN1/4/5 and on CTV at 6pm ET/3pm PT.

 

No signs of stopping

Sunday will mark Super Bowl No. 10 for Brady. Whether he wins his seventh or not, it’s already one of the more impressive seasons of Brady’s career.

He threw 40 touchdown passes during the regular season, his most since 2007 and the most ever by any player in his first year with a new team. At 43, Brady will become the oldest player – not quarterback, not starter, but player – to take the field in a Super Bowl.

Now consider what he had to do to get here.

Brady played on the road in the Wild Card round for the first time in his career and has been the visitor in each of his three playoff games in 2021. After a favourable matchup with the Washington Football Team to get things started, Brady’s Bucs took down Drew Brees – the league’s all-time leader in passing yards – and the New Orleans Saints. Next, they eliminated Aaron Rodgers – who may win his third MVP award this season – and the Green Bay Packers in the conference championship.

If he’s able to take down Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday, Tampa Bay would become the second team to dethrone three Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks in a single post season (2009 Saints, led by Brees) and the first team to dispatch of three former Super Bowl MVP-winning QBs.

Brady’s continued success has been due in part to his ability to throw the ball downfield in head coach Bruce Arians’ air-raid offence as well as fit passes into tight windows. Including the playoffs, Brady has 13 touchdowns on throws of 20 or more yards downfield this year, second only to Rodgers.

On tight-window passes, defined by Next Gen Stats as less than one yard of separation between a receiver and a defender, Brady has 11 touchdowns. That’s more than any other quarterback and six more than he had all of last season. He also ranks second in tight-window completions (40) behind only Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill.

Father Time will get Brady eventually, just like he does everybody else. It just won’t be now, and it might not be any time soon, either.

 

Can he do it again?

Mahomes won the MVP award in his first year as a starter. He won the Super Bowl the following year. He has the best quarterback rating of anybody over the past three seasons and has led the Chiefs to more wins in that same span than any other team.

Like Brady, Mahomes has the arm strength to air out the deep ball and the accuracy to fit throws into windows inches wide, but he’s also elite when faced with pressure. The best by a long shot, actually.

Since 2018, Mahomes has a quarterback rating of 73.5 when pressured, by far the highest of any other pivot. There’s only one other quarterback who has been close to as effective as Mahomes under pressure and that’s 2019 MVP winner Lamar Jackson (62.4), who makes his living off of broken plays and scrambling out of the pocket.

The league average for QBR when pressured this season is 19.6, 53.9 points lower than Mahomes.

One of Tampa Bay’s strengths on defence is an elite pass rush. Mahomes threw three separate touchdown passes on blitzes in K.C.’s victory over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship game. On the season, Mahomes has 17 TDs and zero interceptions against the blitz. In the Week 12 meeting between Kansas City and Tampa Bay earlier this season, Mahomes went 9-for-12 for 144 yards and two touchdowns against the blitz.

If the Bucs are going to send pressure, they better get there in a hurry. And even then, it might not matter.