With COVID-19 impacting almost every NBA team, totals and spreads have been fluctuating between open and close unlike any other week.

It feels like we’re all avoiding bad news on the wire.

The most recent game between the Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors is a great example. The Warriors opened as a 5.5-point favourite, but once Steph Curry and several other key players were ruled out, the number moved 14.5 points, all the way to Toronto -7.5. That’s a lot of room for arbitrage.

Navigating through all the ambiguity, I’ve spotlighted three notable hot streaks that have consistently cashed over the past couple of weeks.
 

Raptors’ recent ATS run

The Raptors’ social media hive has been riding high as they’ve gone 6-1 against the spread in December.

How have they been getting it done?

Both of Toronto’s losses this month were one-possession games. The Raptors have allowed the fourth fewest points per game in December, which correlates to their +8.3 net rating, also fourth best in the NBA.

The return of Pascal Siakam allowed the rest of the starting five to settle into their traditional roles. Fred VanVleet has been facilitating the offence for a while now, but in December he’s averaging 5.6 catch-and-shoot FGAs, which is up from the two months prior where he averaged just 3.6 per game. On those shots, he’s had an effective field-goal percentage of 84.6 per cent, supernova levels.

Another key factor has been their improved play from the second unit. Justin Champagnie has played 73 minutes in December, double the floor time of any month all season, and he’s had a productive +14 net rating.

And then there’s Yuta Watanabe, whose hustle and energy have been infectious. His presence has helped the bench stay competitive defensively, a unit that’s had a negative net rating all season. In December, the first five non-starters have been a -6, which means they’re keeping net-neutral in games (an improvement compared to October and November).

Toronto has closed as a favourite in six of seven games this month and covered in five of them. Their next two scheduled games come against over-performing teams in the Chicago Bulls and the Cleveland Cavaliers. While COVID-19 could force postponements, it’s worth keeping an eye out for an overcorrection in the lines when the Raptors return to the floor.
 

Lakers trending to the under

Prior to their battle with the DeMar DeRozan-led Bulls on Sunday, the Lakers went under the total six games in a row.

Averaging the fifth most points allowed this season, the Lakers have tightened up in December, dropping down to 104 opponent points per game – seventh best in the NBA (three games without Anthony Davis) over that span. Opponents are averaging 41.3 per cent from the field, a league-best mark during this stretch.

While you might hypothesize AD’s injury leads to leaky defensive performances, L.A.’s two best defensive performances in December were against the Magic and Thunder, both games where Davis didn’t play. 

And then there’s LeBron James. You can point at his minutes played, but the ageless wonder is averaging the most steals and blocks this season since his days in Miami. Wild.

Offensively, the Lakers have done a lot of things well this season – top-10 in points per game, field-goal percentage, and free-throw attempts.

The knock on their offence is possessions. They’re second worst in turnovers per game, third worst in second-chance points and they’ve maintained that position over these past seven games.

The total for tonight’s game is 224, which would be the highest mark for any Lakers’ game this month. Keep in mind, the Suns have the third highest-rated defence this season. I’d lean to the under in tonight’s game.
 

Spurs Totals Going Over

The Spurs have strangely had their two best defensive performances over the past two weeks on the second night of a back-to-back. In the other six games where they hit the over, their opponents averaged 122.8 points per game.

San Antonio hasn’t defended the three-point line well this season (fourth worst at 36.6 per cent), but over this eight-game stretch things got even more out of hand as they allowed opponents to shoot an alarming 41.5 per cent beyond the arc which was league worst.

I decided to dig deeper and see, was it simply bad luck or were the Spurs struggling to close out on the perimeter?

Of the seven opponents they faced (Denver played a double-header), those teams have averaged 19.2 per cent of their three-point attempts with no defender within six feet this season. Statistically, you’d assume for the Spurs to give up so many treys, they must’ve been leaving guys wide open, right?

In every game over that stretch, the Spurs allowed less wide-open threes than their opponents’ season averages.

What am I telling you? They’re eating some bad luck. It wasn’t their fault.

San Antonio’s next game is against the aforementioned Lakers, and depending on the number, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Spurs kept L.A. under its team total. 

A lot can change in a short period of time in the current NBA climate. However, these trends are still worth keeping in mind over the next couple of weeks.