Every week TSN CFL stats guru Jon Perlberg takes a deep dive Inside The Numbers to give bettors an edge.

This week, he takes a closer look at the edge the Hamilton Tiger-Cats have had at home as well as Cody Fajardo’s clutch play.

Tiger-Cats back home versus Montreal

There is no denying that the Hamilton Tiger-Cats are an entirely different team when they’re playing at Tim Hortons Field.

In fact, the Tiger-Cats have been perfect in protecting home turf since the 2018 East semifinal, going 13-0 since then at ‘The Donut Box’ including the playoffs.

The opportunistic Hamilton defence has created seven turnovers to just one by their opposition in two home games this season.

That plus-six differential has translated heavily in favour of the Tabbies, who have outscored their opponents 23-3 in points off turnovers at home.

What this represents is 10 extra points supplied per game on the strength of their stout defence alone.

It also doesn’t help that Montreal quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. has had the misfortune of turning the ball over at the most inopportune times.

Even if Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli is unable to return to action this week, David Watford has proven to be capable of running the offence and leading his squad to victory in each of his first two career starts.

Over the past two weeks, Watford has led a balanced offensive attack, which has featured 59 rushes and 47 pass attempts.

Managing the game within his comfort levels has been key for Watford, as he looks poised to earn his third straight win on Saturday against the visiting Alouettes.

Prediction: Hamilton -2.5 over Montreal

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Riders wrap up Week 9 in Calgary

Cody Fajardo is a winner. Plain and simple.

Last week on the road in B.C., the Nevada Wolf Pack alum engineered his fifth game-winning drive since the start of the 2019 season.

For those wondering, that is the most by any quarterback in the CFL.

Down by six points with 1:42 left on the clock, Fajardo put the Riders on his back, connecting on all four of his passes for 56 yards, and then punching in the winning score himself from the one-yard line.

After not finding the end zone in the first half, the Riders were able to overcome the incredible efforts of Lions’ receiver Lucky Whitehead to claim a tough West Division win.

This week, the Riders will continue to roll on the road when they tackle the Stamps in Cowtown.

From 2012 to 2019, the Calgary Stampeders posted an impressive 60-12 record at home – by far the best in the league.

After two consecutive off-seasons, the intimidating mystique of McMahon Stadium has faded away and the same ground doesn’t seem as imposing as it once did for visiting teams.

The same can be said for star quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell.

It’s no secret that he has struggled mightily this season, with two touchdown passes to seven interceptions. It’s been painful to watch.

While backup Jake Maier has shown more promise when commanding the Calgary offence, it still won’t be enough to take down the Green Riders.

Prediction: Saskatchewan -2.5 over Calgary

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