As the new year approaches, the NHL regular season holds uncertainty but lacks mystery. It is uncertain because we don’t know all the teams that will make the playoffs or what their very important positioning will be.

But the veil has been lifted; any illusion or mystery in terms of who is good and who stinks has dissipated. With the NHL entering its holiday break, bettors have a final opportunity to post some wins for 2022. 

Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes
Friday, December 23 – 7:00 PM ET
The drama over Flyers forward Kevin Hayes’ benching and then being a healthy scratch is a reminder that the John Tortorella experience has a very obvious shelf life. The present Flyers iteration is saddled with bad contracts and debilitating injuries while embedded in an Eastern Conference laden with playoff-caliber teams and up-and-comers. All of this begs the question: Will Torts turn this franchise around before things completely unravel? 

Carolina is a formidable opponent to face in the final game before the break. The Hurricanes are 5-0 on the second of back-to-backs. They have the best expected goals percentage of any team in the NHL during December and rank third in high-danger chances percentage. They also have one of the best shutdown lines, which they can sic on opponents’ top players when playing at home with the last change. This spells trouble for Travis Konecny, the Flyers’ most dynamic player and a very likely candidate to see a lot of Canes defensive wizard Jordan Staal.

In 279 minutes of 5-on-5 time, the Staal line is doubling its foes in goals 14-7. It enjoys a 143-106 shot advantage. In high-danger chances, it boasts a +29 differential. I am way too scared to fade Konecny for fear of getting burned on the power play, but I’ll happily take the under points total for linemate Joel Farabee, who plays on the second power-play unit. At 5-on-5, it’s a safe guess that Konecny and Farabee will spend a lot of time defending in their own end.

Scott Laughton has been hot lately, and it is not surprising that Torts is drawn to him because of his ability to win puck battles and make the gutsy shot-block. But even with Laughton currently on the same line as Hayes, who has close to a point per game this season, the appeal of taking Laughton’s under is too tempting. 

Laughton has registered a point in only 13 of 30 games this season, and he currently is stationed on the second power-play unit. The most versatile and dangerous line for the Flyers was the Owen Tippett, James van Riemsdyk, and Morgan Frost triumvirate, but after falling behind 4-1 to the Maple Leafs on Thursday, Torts moved Frost to center Konecny and the line exploded for two quick goals. 

The lesson: Torts is going to shuffle the lines at 5-on-5, so avoiding the players featured on the first power-play unit is the shrewd move. With Laughton relegated to the second power-play unit and facing a Hurricanes team that will look to beat them down with their forecheck, I don’t see many goals for the Flyers at 5-on-5. With Noah Cates ostensibly Tippett’s center, I feel comfortable taking the under for Farabee, Tippett, and Laughton.

Picks: Joel Farabee U 0.5 points -180, Owen Tippett U 0.5 points -175, Scott Laughton U 0.5 points -175

Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars
Friday, December 23 – 8:00 PM ET

A team participating in a rebuild inevitably invites tension. There are the foundational players whose primes will forge a bright future. Then there are the placeholders, who operate on borrowed time. Montreal forward Mike Hoffman falls into the latter category. 

For a player who had a PTO with the Blues two years ago, a clear signal he was nearly out of the league, one would assume Hoffman has managed to cling to a job in the NHL by dint of his goal scoring. After all, with the Canadiens this season Hoffman has seven goals and three assists in 23 games. In the offensive zone, he can be found roaming around the high slot and point in hopes of utilizing his big shot. 

But Hoffman is quietly tapping into another way to make himself useful, which is as an energy shutdown player. Coach Martin St. Louis played the trio of Hoffman, Christian Dvorak, and Evgeny Dadonov against the Colorado Avalanche’s Mikko Rantanen line on Wednesday and had them take many defensive zone draws. 

When Hoffman played for the Florida Panthers in 2018-19 and 2019-20, he was one of the worst players in defensive rating per Evolving Hockey. Currently, he has a 2.2 defensive rating, one of the best on the Canadiens. Who says an old dog can’t learn new tricks at age 33? 

What this evolution of Hoffman’s game doesn’t portend is offence. On Wednesday, Colorado posted eight scoring chances while the Hoffman line registered zero. Hoffman is very fast and has demonstrated that he is a dangerous player at 3-on-3 in overtime, having notched multiple game-winners this year. But at 5-on-5, if the Stars can force Hoffman to forecheck and create off the cycle, they should easily bottle up his line.

The Stars are just outside the top ten in the league in goals against. Dallas will be aggressive trying to contest the Canadiens’ entries and keep tight gaps, understanding full well that the Habs live and die from their offence off the rush. With Hoffman possibly facing the redoubtable Jason Robertson line and not getting first power-play unit ice time, his getting on the scoresheet seems unlikely.

Pick: Mike Hoffman U 0.5 points -180

Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks
Friday, December 23 – 10:30 PM ET

The temptation has proved irresistible. The Ducks are consistent losers, racking up defeats and struggling to stay competitive. Their roster is overmatched against most opponents. But for a fleeting minute, when Anaheim coach Dallas Eakins puts Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras together, the ice suddenly tilts in the Ducks’ direction.

How to harness the few highly skilled forwards on the Ducks roster is an issue Eakins is wrestling with very publicly. Even when Eakins starts the game with Zegras and Terry split up, there is little hesitation about reuniting them when things stall. This is dramatically important for B-list players Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano.

The Ducks finished the first period against the Minnesota Wild Wednesday with 36 seconds of offensive zone possession time and one scoring chance manufactured off the cycle. It’s no surprise Eakins rushed to put Zegras and Terry back together to gin up offence. And what Eakin settled on during that game feels like a best-case scenario for bettors who want to aggressively fade Strome and Vatrano’s scoring prospects. They aren’t playing with Zegras or Terry, but Strome and Vatrano aren’t together either, so in the unlikely event one of them does collect a point, it doesn’t hurt bettors twice.

In the nearly seven minutes at 5-on-5 Vatrano spent with Mason McTavish and either Brett Leason or Jakob Silfverberg as his opposite wing, the Ducks were outshot 6-1. Strome had far more success generating looks when he was bookended by Max Comtois and Slifverberg, but his line failed to tally a point. Arguably the best playmaker and offensive creator of the group is McTavish, who is a rookie.

For the Ducks, who currently rank as the NHL’s second worst offence, the Flames defence will be a stiff test to score goals against. Calgary is allowing the fewest shots per game per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in December and is top ten in expected goals against this month. Strome and Vatrano have been generating more points of late, but with neither playing on the Ducks’ first power-play unit, the likelihood is points will need to come from 5-on-5, an area where the Flames are likely to control play.

Both teams will be playing their third game in four nights, but Calgary will be the only one playing on Thursday night. That isn’t necessarily good news for Anaheim. With goaltender Dan Vladar starting on Thursday, the Ducks will face Jacob Markstrom, who has a 4.26 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in his last seven starts. After a poor start to the season, Markstrom is starting to look like himself again. 

Furthermore, the Ducks were the worst team in the NHL in the advanced stats this month and can look completely lifeless during long stretches. The Flames are a very good defensive team who will be eager to forecheck and put pressure on a wobbly Ducks defensive group. For bettors, any opportunity to fade Ducks forwards who aren’t on the same power-play unit or 5-on-5 line as Zegras and Terry is a chance that simply cannot be passed up.

Picks: Frank Vatrano U 0.5 points -150, Ryan Strome U 0.5 points -165