Come playoff time, I like to think about various series with “If X happens, then what?” scenarios. For example, if the New Jersey Devils don’t dominate the New York Rangers at 5-on-5, then what? Or, if the Tampa Bay Lightning can’t thwart the Maple Leafs’ forecheck or stop the Toronto rush, then what? And finally, if the Winnipeg Jets’ can’t stop the Vegas Golden Knights from stretching the zone, then what?

In their respective series, the Devils have more speed and skill while the Jets and Lightning have better goaltenders in Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy. But I am picking these teams’ opponents to win because they have a larger margin for error. With bets for each series and for Game 1 available, I am happy to be your guide for betting the start of the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

It’s a question that has gnawed at me for the last four months. Are the Tampa Bay Lightning in an irreversible decline or is the most successful franchise of the past three seasons simply bored to death by the regular season and this has seeped into their play?

The decline narrative has momentum because, following the All-Star Break, the Lightning couldn’t stop losing games, going 14-15-5. The Bolts’ offence looked top- heavy and opponents found success creating chances off the rush. The defensive group was sloppy in its puck management and gaps, and the power play was leaned on to buoy the Lightning’s uneven 5-on-5 play.

The biggest whoopsie moment may have been the move to acquire power forward Tanner Jeannot at the trade deadline. The Lightning traded a lot of capital for a player who has merely one goal and three assists to his name in 20 games since joining the Bolts. And, currently hurt, he isn’t expected to play in Game 1. Watching the Lightning flail when trying to exit their own zone, one has to wonder if more help among the back end would have been wiser.

But like a sitcom where the characters never change their behavior, there is a familiarity with this group that begs for tamping down the alarmism. It’s the playoffs, so Vasilevskiy will inevitably look fantastic. Coach Jon Cooper is a genius, the game’s best problem-solver when it comes to identifying and harnessing which matchups and tactics will work in a seven-game series. The playoffs are when Brayden Point becomes a superhero—plus, Nikita Kucherov stayed healthy this regular season. The Lightning were underdogs last year against Toronto but survived in seven games.

Still, 12 months make a difference, and I think Toronto has finally figured out the right roster composition this year. Their tetrad of superstar forwards (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares) allows the Leafs to go toe-to-toe talent-wise with Tampa Bay’s nucleus. I love the move to bring in Ryan O’Reilly as the shutdown forward, and his making life hell for Kucherov and Co. could singlehandedly swing this series.

The decision to bring in goaltender Ilya Samsonov looks brilliant too, as Samsonov has literally thrived in Toronto (as those who celebrate his home record acknowledge). Vasilevskiy finished the season with the league’s sixth best Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), but Samsonov is in the top nine.

Finishing top seven in goals against isn’t just a testament to the Maple Leafs’ strong goaltending, as Toronto finished in the top ten in expected goals against at 5-on-5. Unlike Tampa Bay, Toronto’s best forwards have positive defensive ratings on Evolving Hockey.

The Maple Leafs are going to power the puck below the goal line and force the Lightning to chase them around the offensive zone. Toronto has a mobile defence and its five-skater attack excels because of how tenacious it is on retrievals. Moreover, Tampa Bay has shown vulnerability to aggressive forechecks of late (see recent contests against Ottawa).

Vasilevskiy might keep the game close, but my concern with Tampa Bay is two-fold: Can they get secondary scoring, and, if the power play flops, can they score at 5-on-5? I think Tampa Bay spending excessive time hemmed in its end will lead to shot attempts from Matthews and Tavares in the middle-to-high slot. I envision transition opportunities off Marner’s bump passes in the neutral zone when the Bolts try to step up. The Lightning had a nice run, but this iteration is too thin to keep pace with Toronto this season. 

Picks: Maple Leafs Series Winner -150, Maple Leafs Game 1 moneyline -145

New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils

Gregor Samsa excluded, a metamorphosis generally doesn’t occur overnight. To be clear, the Devils were a top-six team in high-danger chances percentage last season and demonstrated a high-octane transition game. But their goaltending was atrocious, Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton got injured, and they finished with an abysmal record.

This season has been kismet. Hughes and Hamilton stayed healthy and had career years. Signing goaltender Vitek Vanecek in the offseason was one of the best moves of last summer. And players in the Devils’ nucleus took steps forward. Nico Hischier is now a point-a-game player. Dawson Mercer nearly tallied 30 goals at 21 years old. Jesper Bratt finished with a career high in goals and tied his high in points. And the speed the Devils imposed off their rush was evident over 200 feet. Now, the Devils are almost unquestionably the best under-25 franchise in the league, and they enter the postseason as favorites against their cross-town rival. All that said, I’m taking the underdog Blueshirts.

If the Rangers manage the puck well in this series, they will win. The Devils thrive at generating chances off turnovers, but if New York can establish its forecheck and set up on the cycle, it can wear New Jersey down with territorial advantage. The Rangers interchange well in the offensive zone, and extended possession will enable them to spread New Jersey out and try to shoot for fly-by-tips in the middle slot to their wingers. Furthermore, the Rangers need to create traffic in the slot, partly to take away Vanecek’s sightline and also to open up looks around the crease. Putting the Devils into scramble mode is also a nice way to eliminate their potent rush attack.

But say all that fails to happen, and if you watched the last time these two played, you might think that’s likely. The Devils won 2-1 on March 30th, but the score belies how dominant New Jersey was. The Devils finished with 14 high-danger chances to the Rangers’ six. New Jersey yielded 21 more shot attempts. It is solely because the Rangers have Igor Shesterkin that kept it a one-goal game.

When comparing the two goalies in this matchup, February 1st is an interesting date of demarcation. From October to the end of January, Shesterkin and Vanecek were bunched together in the instructive goaltending stat GSAx. Since the start of February, Shesterkin has played like a top-six NHL goaltender in GSAx, while Vanecek has played like the 28th best goaltender among netminders with a minimum of 500 minutes.

The Devils are a young roster and many of the core players are making their first appearance on the postseason stage. I think this will be more competitive than the regular season advanced stats suggest. And in a tightly contested game, I want Shesterkin on my side.

Pick: Rangers Series Winner +100

Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. For most of the season, I was bearish on the Golden Knights. The team had health and goaltending concerns. I worried about its forwards getting bullied in the slot and being too reliant on the rush. I quietly had reservations that its top minute-loggers were past their prime. But everything is relative, and now that Vegas is playing the Winnipeg Jets in the first round, its warts can be camouflaged!

The roadmap for the Jets to win this series is plain as day. The Jets are big and can play physically and their coach exhorts his squad to pursue the forecheck. When the puck is in the offensive zone for the Jets, they will be looking to utilize their defencemen on the cycle and try to shoot around Vegas’s attempts to front the puck. That translates to high-slot tips and off-net tips, and the pressure will be on the Winnipeg defencemen to find the shot and pass lanes. But it is after the shot that things get interesting.

The Jets’ defencemen will be looking to step up to stanch the zone exit and maintain the forecheck. But Vegas is a rush-centric team, so it will be looking to stretch the zone on loose pucks as a way to attack in transition and push the Jets’ defencemen back. Can the Jets keep the Golden Knights in scramble mode and avoid allowing Vegas to get behind them?

It’s too simplistic to say the Jets could win this series by being more physical. The more nuanced take is that Winnipeg must use its size both to deny entries when Vegas tries to carry the puck in with speed and to keep Vegas at bay and out of the slot. If the Golden Knights allow Hellebuyck to see the puck, he is hard to beat. On the cycle, the Jets should aggressively set picks to create space for the puck-carrier.

But folks, consistency matters, and the Jets have had an extended period of mediocrity since January. Over their last 41 games, which is a half-season sample size, the Jets have lost more games than they have won. Their advanced stats are very good in that span, but their shooting percentage is dreadful, so they have certainly suffered from some bad luck.

But the odd thing is, in the first half of the season, when the Jets were one of the best teams in the West, their advanced stats were much worse. Despite improved underlying numbers in the months of 2023, they nearly fell out of the playoff picture. It’s also worth noting that Vegas fared well in the advanced stats too, so Winnipeg doesn’t have a defined edge.

It is fitting that the Jets beat out the Calgary Flames for a playoff spot because they have similarities: appealing rosters but completely undependable. There is a world-weary emotion from betting the Jets, like a cocktail with too much sugar – you should have known better.

 

The Golden Knights are very strong at home and on the road this season despite a spate of injuries. With coach Bruce Cassidy, I know they’ll defend well which helps allay my concern over the goaltending mismatch Winnipeg enjoys. Even with injuries, Vegas has the deeper roster. I think it’ll be a very competitive series, but I like Vegas to eke it out in Game 1 and to win the series.

Picks: Golden Knights Series Winner -170, Vegas Golden Knights Game 1 moneyline -15