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Intelligent Hockey: Best bets for Saturday's slate
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With less than 20 games left in the regular season, no team wants to see its defence get leaky. But in the first two games of their five-game road trip, the Boston Bruins allowed 11 goals over the course of two games. The Carolina Hurricanes lost last weekend by a combined score of 7-0, alarming for both their lack of offence and squishy defence. And the New Jersey Devils lost consecutive games for the first time in 2023, allowing four goals in two successive outings against the Lightning.
The Bruins’ defensive pushback started on Thursday night when they shut out the Winnipeg Jets, and I am anticipating a strong defensive response from the Hurricanes and Devils as well. As such, my wagers are built around top teams bouncing back and shutting things down defensively.
Boston Bruins at Minnesota Wild
Saturday, March 18 – 2:00 PM ET
The Minnesota Wild have played without superstar forward Kirill Kaprizov for three games and have tallied four or more goals in every contest. The scoring has come from different forwards lines, at 5-on-5 and on the power play, and even from their defencemen. But here’s the problem: The Wild’s three opponents were the San Jose Sharks, the Arizona Coyotes, and the St. Louis Blues, three of the nine worst teams in the NHL in goals against. The Boston Bruins are a different beast entirely.
A team that wins nearly 80 percent of its games inevitably loses focus. Such was the case when Boston lost the first two games of its road trip against Detroit and Chicago, two teams far below the Bruins’ caliber. But on Thursday, the Bruins quickly dispatched the Jets, jumping out to a 2-0 lead fourteen minutes into the game. The Jets finished with more shots simply because the Bruins shifted their attention to salting away the game since they had a multi-goal lead.
Try as the Wild might, Kaprizov is irreplaceable. He currently ranks in the top ten in in the NHL in individual expected goals and has a knack for pushing the defence back on the rush. The two-man game he ran with teammate Mats Zuccarello on the cycle buoyed the Wild’s offence many nights. I suspect the Minnesota power play will soon stumble without its rudder.
To beat an attentive Bruins team requires detailed defensive coverage and impeccable puck management. On Thursday night, the Bruins’ triangle offence capitalized on the Jets’ defensive coverage gaffe to seize a 1-0 lead. The Jets committed consecutive turnovers in the neutral zone later in the period, the second of which resulted in Boston’s Pavel Zacha depositing a puck in the back of the net. It will be interesting to see if the Wild can stretch their wings against the Bruins, because one could envision Boston’s tight gaps disrupting the long pass, leading to counterattack chances and lots of time behind the Wild net.
Ultimately, even with the Bruins’ power play ice cold, they are so strong at 5-on-5 that they can still grind out victories. Even though their home record is preposterously good, they also are winning 70 percent of their games on the road. Less good is still quite good here.
I don’t envision a lot of scoring in this game, and I feel obligated to grab the Bruins any time their moneyline is available and the opposing team is missing its best player.
Pick: Bruins -165
Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers
Saturday, March 18 – 5:00 PM ET
Last summer, Flyers forward Joel Farabee underwent neck surgery. Farabee played in the season opener against the Devils and hasn’t missed a game since. But he hasn’t looked the same.
Farabee’s goals and assists are down from the past two years. In 2020-21, he finished third on the team in individual expected goals. In 2021-22, he finished fourth. This season he ranks eighth. In goals above replacement, he ranks sixth on the team and is faring worse than in 2020-21 and 2021-22 because his defensive rating is so atrocious.
Farabee hasn’t found the back of the net since January 9th, a drought of 26 games. He also isn’t drumming up offence and is hurting the team defensively. And Farabee isn’t alone in his offensive troubles as the Flyers’ scoring has cratered in their last nine games with the team held to two or less goals seven times.
If you can’t find the back of the net, the Hurricanes are not the team you want to play. Only the Bruins have a better goals against, and in expected goals against per 60 minutes, Carolina ranks first. The Hurricanes can be vulnerable off the rush if you bypass their pinching defenceman or when their blueliner tries to stand up at the line. But this is a Flyers team coached by John Tortorella, so I fully expect them to try to win through the forecheck and cycle, areas the Hurricanes are elite at defending. Even though this is the second game of a back-to-back, Carolina will want to win this game by hemming in the Flyers and pelting them with shots.
Given Farabee’s individual struggles engineering offence and the fact that he doesn’t get first power-play-unit minutes, I am bearish on him finding his way onto the scoresheet. I think his line, with Noah Cates and James van Riemsdyk, will spend a lot of the game chasing the puck.
Farabee has notched a point in 22 of 67 games this season. Since January 16th, he has two assists and zero goals. Against one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, I think this price is a bargain.
Pick: Joel Farabee U 0.5 points -165
New Jersey Devils at Florida Panthers
Saturday, March 18 – 6:00 PM ET
Welcome back to reality, Florida. I’m not sure exactly what I watched in the Panthers’ first period against Montreal on Thursday night, but for 20 minutes, any resistance or defence was an afterthought and goaltending an apparition. Pucks went in with stunning regularity.
To be clear, Florida did not play well, at least over 200 feet. The Panthers completely capitulated the neutral zone, they relinquished the puck too frequently on their half of the ice, and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky allowed three goals on his first three shots. Yet, somehow, Florida came away from the first frame with a four-goal lead.
This is the final game of the season series between the Devils and Panthers and each team has a 4-2 victory to its name. But I like the Devils on Saturday and one big reason is that New Jersey’s speed will overwhelm Florida defensively.
The Devils want to outrace their opponent. They try to use the stretch pass regularly and fly the zone as soon as they claim possession. If there are gaps in an opponent’s neutral-zone forecheck, the Devils will exploit them. New Jersey is one of the best teams in the NHL off the rush, and Jack Hughes is the tip of the spear in that facet. Defensively, the Panthers’ forwards can fail to support their defencemen when they try to gap up. Against the Devils, that is instant death.
The different ways the Devils can pick you apart were evidenced Thursday against a very defensively dialed in Lightning team. The Devils ran a nice breakout play from their own end, resulting in Tomas Tatar whacking the puck into the back of the net. In another instance, the Devils harnessed a quick-up to register a goal. Unless the Panthers’ forecheck keeps New Jersey trapped in its own zone, or Florida successfully denies clean entries, the Devils should have room to strike in this game.
The Panthers do have a potent offence (they rank second in the league in expected goals for per hour), and both their forecheck and rush looked dangerous against Montreal. I’m curious to see if they can make headway with shots from the point. On Thursday, the Lightning were able to get a lot of shots through against New Jersey, and if the Panthers can tip shots and get inside position, they can assert themselves offensively.
Nevertheless, besides the Devils’ speed advantage, my bet is on their consistency and team defence making the difference. The Devils haven’t lost three straight games since before Christmas, and they have a 25-4-4 record on the road this season. Furthermore, in the advanced stats and in goals against, the Devils are a top-ten defensive team.
Before last Saturday, Aleksander Barkov was scoring at a pace of barely over a point per game. But in each of his last two games, he has two points. Barkov hasn’t had multi-point games in three straight games this season, and he only has one other instance of two games with two or more points. In other words, if he collects two or more points, it would be his most productive streak of the season and would come against one of the best defensive teams in the NHL.
I don’t see the Panthers winning this game or Barkov posting two or more points. I like the Devils’ ML and Barkov’s under.
Picks: Aleksander Barkov U 1.5 points -150, Devils -105