The unvarnished truth is that the final week of the NHL season is mostly devoid of drama. Almost all 32 teams know where they are going before game 82. With playoff teams resting players and bad teams incorporating young players into bigger roles, weird stuff can happen. Remember last season when the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Florida Panthers lost their final game of the season to the Montreal Canadiens 10-2 because they rested nearly all of their regulars?

Before things get too silly, I want to base my favorite bets around games that have actual weight to them. 

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

Thursday April 6 – 7:30 PM ET

Lightning coach Jon Cooper isn’t worried about his team’s scoring. Cooper’s concern is the indulgent attitude at times of his team’s defence. The Lightning can be slow to backcheck. They can make foolhardy decisions with the puck or make a bad read. After a fourth straight loss to the Boston Bruins two Saturdays ago, Cooper shook up the lines. 

The super line of Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Steven Stamkos was reunited. Brandon Hagel got moved off the first line to play with Nicholas Paul and Ross Colton. Anthony Cirelli and Alex Killorn were teamed with Pat Maroon. The second and third lines are nominally checking lines now, and this all has worked. Through three games, the Hagel and Cirelli lines have combined to allow one goal against. The Point line has four goals while allowing zero. Tampa Bay has won all three games.

But the next 48 hours should be tough. While the Lightning waxed the Islanders last Saturday 5-0, I envision a very different game Thursday night. The Lightning will be playing the second night of a back-to-back. New York will be rested, not having played since Sunday. The Islanders will be at home, where they are dramatically better. I expect Islanders coach Lane Lambert to utilize Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock against the Point line in an attempt to neutralize it. 

A hamstrung Lightning first line is one reason why I am endorsing an under of 1.5 points for Nikita Kucherov. While fading Kucherov sounds harrowing, he has accrued two or more points in only three of Tampa Bay’s 14 second-game-of-a-back-to-back contests. Even when he’s not playing two nights in a row, the percentage of games where Kucherov has collected two or more points is under 40 percent. 

The Islanders don’t play pretty hockey. They will inevitably struggle on their gaps and breakouts. They will spend long stretches chasing the puck around their own end. But they are top-five in goals against this season because they have Ilya Sorokin in goal, the league’s leader in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).

Given the checking mandate for the Cirelli and Hagel lines, it is hard for me to imagine either forward contributing points on Thursday night. Neither player is on the first unit of the power play, and currently Hagel is pointless in seven straight games. Cirelli’s recent stat line isn’t much better, having gone scoreless in five of his last six games. 

Unsurprisingly, the Cirelli and Hagel lines don’t have the same offensive versatility as the Point line. They try to forecheck and cycle, and sometimes Cirelli uses a pick to open up space or Hagel steals a puck and creates a chance. But, again, they will need to beat Sorokin. A tall task.

I can absolutely see this game being 2-1 in a shootout with a coin flip as to who wins. Of course, with Brian Elliott likely minding the net for Tampa Bay, there is a risk in playing the game total under. Regardless, I want to fade the Lightning’s scoring prospects in a big way, and I see Kucherov, Cirelli, and Hagel’s unders as the best path. 

Picks: Nikita Kucherov U 1.5 points -175, Anthony Cirelli U 0.5 points -195, Brandon Hagel U 0.5 points -130 

Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators

Thursday April 6 – 8:00 PM ET

The last time former Norris Trophy winner Roman Josi played a game for the Nashville Predators was March 18th. In the subsequent 10 games, the Nashville’s offence has cratered. In expected goals created at 5-on-5, the Predators are last. In goals per 60 minutes and shots per hour, they are third to last and second to last respectively. 

But it’s not just Josi. The Predators are missing Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Juuso Parssinen. They traded away Mikael Granlund and Nino Niederreiter. Sometimes when you watch them, it seems like a miracle when they carry the puck over center ice. 

Personally, I see durable NHL careers for Cody Glass and Luke Evangelista. Glass can transport the puck and distribute. His defensive rating on Evolving Hockey is the best on the team. Evangelista has good hands and instincts below the circles. He has 13 points in 19 games and is playing bumper on the first unit of the power play. But even with their upset of Vegas Tuesday night, I am dubious of the Predators’ prospects with these two players logging top-six minutes. 

Nashville intends to make Thursday a low-event game by controlling territorial time and grinding Carolina below the goal line. But the Glass and Evangelista lines derived their greatest success from Vegas’s puck management miscues and failed forechecks that led to odd-man rush looks. 

The Hurricanes have a suffocating forecheck and one way they avoid beating themselves is by endlessly hemming in their opponent. The Predators have struggled to exit their own zone since Josi’s injury, and it will be difficult for Nashville’s defencemen to escape the pressure of Carolina’s forecheckers.

On Tuesday against Vegas, Nashville’s power play saved the day. But it had a woeful track record before that victory, and the Hurricanes have the second-best penalty kill in the NHL. 

This may seem reminiscent of the faux-polite rejection popular in middle school: “I like you, but not in that way.” I think Glass is a nice player and Evangelista has a bright future. Playing their third game in four nights, I think a tired Predators team will struggle to generate any offence against Carolina.

Picks: Cody Glass U 0.5 points -120, Luke Evangelista U 0.5 points -120

The incentives are plainly obvious. If the Hurricanes keep winning, they stave off the New Jersey Devils and win the Metropolitan Division. That would give them home-ice advantage for at least the first two rounds, and PNC Arena has been a friendly environment, with Carolina possessing one of the best home records in the league. 

Additionally, winning the division would allow the Hurricanes to avoid a first-round meet-up with the New York Rangers, the franchise who knocked them out of last year’s playoffs. With home-ice advantage, Carolina would get last change, allowing it to sic shutdown center Jordan Staal on opponents’ best players.

For most of March, the Hurricanes’ losses came against playoff teams, but on March 30th, they lost to the mercurial Detroit Red Wings. So even against a decimated Nashville team, it is hard to see Carolina taking this game lightly. Bottom line: If the Hurricanes play their brand of hockey, they should shred Nashville.

The offensive stats for the Predators since Josi’s injury are cover-your-eyes gruesome, but the Predators’ defensive metrics are brutal too. In high-danger chances allowed, they are fifth worst. In expected goals against, they are fourth worst. The Hurricanes have the highest dump-in rate of any team in the NHL, and they excel at starting their point of attack below the circles and then wearing teams down by firing shots into traffic and reclaiming possession. 

Carolina is a score-by-committee team, and especially without star forward Andrei Svechnikov, its defencemen will be expected to add secondary scoring.  With three defencemen in double digits for goals, Carolina can threaten adversaries with its back end and around the crease. The Hurricanes also aren’t afraid to get their hands dirty, and they will clean out their opponents with interference on faceoffs to open up room.

If the Predators pull off an upset Thursday night, it will be because of their goaltending. Juuse Saros has been spectacular this season, and Frederik Andersen has been adequate. The Hurricanes are a volume shooting team, so the possibility of a 45-50 save performance by Saros seems distinctly possible. Nevertheless, even with Nashville having a sliver of hope for slipping into the playoffs, the personnel for Carolina are significantly better. I am happy to take the moneyline for Carolina.

Pick: Hurricanes -175