Playoff hockey is around the corner. Like the food at a cocktail hour, there is a certain buzz as the crowd devours the appetizers. Even with Kirill Kaprizov inactive, the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild battling on Wednesday night is must-see television. 

A possible preview of what might be an epic playoff series, this is a mid-week convergence of two teams with similar styles of play: speed through three zones, a five-man attack, and reliable team defence. I envision this contest as a tight-checking, low-scoring affair. Instead of picking the game, which amounts to a coin flip, I am aggressively playing the unders.

Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche

Wednesday, March 29 – 10:00 PM ET

Matt Boldy is surface-of-the-sun hot right now. In his last nine games, he has 11 goals and four assists. His line, with Marcus Johansson and Joel Eriksson Ek, has crackled, with the different skill sets of the forwards working in perfect complement. Understandably, I want to bet against the players who mostly don’t share the ice with Boldy. And the first candidate for that designation is Frederick Gaudreau, the Wild’s third-line center. 

Unless you’re financially invested, most hockey fans want to root for someone like Gaudreau. A late bloomer, he had under 100 games of NHL experience in his late 20s before landing in Minnesota for the 2021-22 campaign. He has been a consistent starter and top-nine forward for the Wild, and coach Dean Evason believes in him.

After scoring career highs in goals and assists last season, Gaudreau hasn’t quite matched the same point production this season, albeit he has been hot lately, notching seven points in his last ten games. This productivity overlaps almost exactly with the trade acquisition of Oskar Sundqvist, who has been attached to Gaudreau since he arrived in Minnesota. And yet, something doesn’t smell right here.

At 5-on-5, Gaudreau and Sundqvist have been outshot 24-45. They are under 50 percent in high-danger chances and expected goals. Over the last handful of games, Brandon Duhaime has played alongside them, and their expected goals and high-danger chances percentages have gotten worse. But puck luck has been on their side, with their PDO a whopping 1.058, thanks to high shooting and save percentages. Luck runs out eventually, though, and on Evolving Hockey, the only other Wild top forward besides Gaudreau with a negative offensive rating is Marcus Foligno.

It’s hard to imagine Gaudreau’s current scoring pace continuing due to present circumstances. Evason is comfortable with the Gaudreau line playing against other teams’ best players, and he doesn’t play first unit on the power play. With probable shifts spent chasing Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, I’m happy to take my chances betting against Gaudreau posting a point.

Pick: Frederick Gaudreau U 0.5 points -180

One cool element of the current Wild roster is that it features role players who flopped in other situations before arriving in Minnesota. Ryan Hartman made several stops before he got to the Wild, but he has flourished since joining the team, providing a tenacious forechecking spirit with an underrated knack for facilitating the rush. 

Hartman’s offensive versatility has at times allowed him to commandeer the No. 1 center spot with Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello as his wings. Kaprizov and Zuccarello play a two-man game and need the puck. Hartman intuitively understood how to retrieve the puck and distribute it to them in open ice. But with Kaprizov injured, Hartman currently finds himself with a playmaker in Zuccarello and grinder in Foligno. 

Like the Gaudreau line, this Hartman trio has not exactly been torching its opponents. It is being outshot, and the lack of quality chances is the most concerning. In expected goals, the Wild’s percentage is 34.62 and their high-danger chances differential is -6 when the Hartman line is on the ice. 

The Wild have a terrific record since the Kaprizov injury. They have played elite defence and scored enough to win. But as for the future, I think it is much more likely that the Boldy line, which has truly dominated play, will likely see its success continue while the remaining three lines struggle to engineer offence. Against Colorado, this might be especially true because the Avs’ team defence has been among the best in the league.

With Avalanche backup goaltender Jonas Johansson having played Monday night, Alexandar Georgiev likely will see the crease on Wednesday, and the former Rangers goaltender has thrived in his first year with Colorado. In Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), Georgiev ranks top ten among starters. In Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA), he ranks top five. The Avs have had dry spells this season, struggling to score amidst the torrent of injuries, but Georgiev has buoyed the team. The Avs currently rank sixth in goals against despite Georgiev being forced to withstand a heavy workload.

Hartman is on a three-game point streak, and another game with a point would be his longest streak of the season. With Hartman not getting first unit power-play minutes, I think 5-on-5 goals will be tough to come by. I am happy to fade Hartman’s scoring prospects.

Pick: Ryan Hartman U 0.5 points -105

It doesn’t happen often, but when it does it is a treat for viewers. Once in a while, an opposing skater thinks it is a wise idea to try to challenge Mikko Rantanen with a bodycheck when competing for the puck. Big mistake. The Avs’ power forward not only is supremely skilled, but also has freakish strength, and he is a terrifying force when he is vying for a puck in the corner. In multiple games this year I have seen him chuck massive men into the boards. Not coincidentally, the Avs like to have him post up in the slot and try to screen and deflect shots for goals. But if one team could thwart his plans, the Wild have a convincing case.

The Wild rank first in the NHL in high-danger chances against at 5-on-5 and fourth in expected goals against. They take pride in their active sticks and staying on the right side of the puck. It is a fast team that gaps up well and challenges both blue lines. 

Rantanen is currently playing with the all-world Nathan MacKinnon, which means the Avs are going to get some clean entries. Still, trying to shed Minnesota will be challenging. The Avs will look to bring a forward high and run their motion above the circles and shoot into layers of screens. Minnesota has a viable chance of using its skating to kill plays and force Colorado into a bunch of one-and-done’s. 

Rantanen has scored two or more points in 28 of 73 games this season, which is a reminder of how incredibly difficult it is to generate multi-point games with consistency. And on Wednesday, Rantanen will be facing Filip Gustavsson, the NHL’s most underrated goaltender and the biggest reason why the Wild are a dark horse to come out of the West. Gustavsson has been unreal for Minnesota since being acquired from Ottawa, ranking top five in Goals Above Replacement (GAR) and GSAx. 

With a decent chance the game finishes 1-0 or 2-1 in a shootout, I believe Rantanen’s under of 1.5 points is primed to hit.

Pick: Mikko Rantanen U 1.5 points -165