Morning Coffee: Reaction to FanDuel’s updated odds for Maple Leafs to advance

The Toronto Maple Leafs were the favourite to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel at the beginning of the week.

Five days later, there’s only one team with longer odds to win it all.

If you’re a fan of the team, I know what you’re thinking as your read this column right now.

After all, the Maple Leafs have been the betting favourite to win each of their first five home games so far this postseason.

Toronto has a 1-4 record in those five contests.

Just when it seemed like their fans were finally willing to buy into the idea that the Maple Leafs could end their Stanley Cup drought, the team’s trajectory has taken a turn for the worst.

Still, this is the same team that was the favourite to win it all at FanDuel just a few days ago.

What are the chances that Toronto rallies to advance?

Based on FanDuel’s updated series winner odds, it’s too early to write off the Maple Leafs just yet.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday May 5, 2023.

Reaction to FanDuel’s updated odds for Maple Leafs to advance

Two nights after winning Game 1 as a +155 money line underdog, the Florida Panthers beat Toronto 3-2 as a +168 money line underdog in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead.

If you bet $10 on the Panthers to win Game 1 at FanDuel, then doubled down and put your winnings on Florida to win Game 2, you’d be up a profit of $58.34 right now.

In that scenario, would you be willing to triple down on the Panthers to win Game 3 at +105?

Under the circumstances, it’s an important question to consider.

If Florida wins on Sunday night to go up 3-0, the series could very well be over.

However, if the Maple Leafs could find a way to take care of business as a -126 money line favourite for Game 3, then all of a sudden they’ll be right back in it.

What are the odds that Toronto rallies to win the series?

The Maple Leafs were -176 to advance to the third round at FanDuel entering Game 1 on Tuesday night. That number translates to a 63.8 per cent implied win probability.

After falling behind 2-0 in the series, Toronto is +235 to win the series at FanDuel. That number translates to a 29.9 per cent implied win probability.

While it’s obvious why the Maple Leafs are an underdog to win the series, those odds imply that they have a better chance to advance than history would suggest.

After all, teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series when starting on the road are 85-21 all-time – an 80.2 per cent win rate.

I won’t bet on Toronto to win the series at +235.

However, I do think it’s interesting that they are a road favourite for Game 3, and if they can find a way to bounce back with a win on Sunday night they will be right back in the series.

Warriors catch fire in win over Lakers

Klay Thompson made eight three-point shots and scored a game-high 30 points as the Golden State Warriors beat the Los Angeles Lakers 127-100 last night.

Thompson went 8-of-11 from beyond the arc and is up to 14 made three-point shots through the first two games of the series.

The Warriors joined the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers as the only teams in postseason history with 21+ made three-point shots.

Meanwhile, the scorching hot NBA playoff trend that I highlighted in Thursday’s column continued as the home team responded to a Game 1 loss with a Game 2 win.

That’s now 16 straight instances in which a home team that loses Game 1 of a playoff series responds with a win in Game 2.

Golden State went from the underdog to the favourite to advance past the second round at -124 at FanDuel.

The Lakers opened as a 3.5-point favourite for Game 3 and are +106 to win the series.

A FanDuel Best Bet for Friday’s NBA action

After stringing together a 3-1 run over the past couple of days, we’re looking to end the week on a winning note with the FanDuel Best Bets in Morning Coffee.

With just one game in both the NHL and NBA, we don’t have much to work with.

However, we cashed an NBA Same Game Parlay for Game 2 between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday night, and I’m going to take a similar approach for Game 3 tonight.

Jaylen Brown led the way with 25 points, four assists and two steals in the Game 2 win. Meanwhile, Malcolm Brogdon finished with 23 points and two assists. Marcus Smart recorded 15 points and five rebounds.

Smart 10+ points, Brown 2+ assists and Brogdon 2+ assists have each cashed in every single Celtics’ game so far this postseason.

A three-leg NBA SGP with those three selections is -110 at FanDuel.

I’ll lock in an NBA SGP with Smart 10+ points, Brown 2+ assists and Brogdon 2+ assists as my FanDuel Best Bet.