Mar 7, 2023
Five Longshots to Keep an Eye on at TPC Sawgrass
Happy Players Championship Week to all that celebrate. Unfortunately, Bryson Dechambeau isn’t here this year to top another 3 wood into the creek on the fourth hole but, thankfully, his caddie, Tim Tucker, will be in attendance on the bag for Kurt Kitayama after a massive win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Kitayama went off as a 150-1 longshot to win last week, and it has me thinking.
By Luke Bellus
Happy Players Championship Week to all that celebrate.
Often referred to as golf's fifth major, it’s no surprise that all of the game’s biggest stars, well … at least the players that aren’t suspended from PGA Tour events, have arrived in Ponte Beach Florida in an attempt to win the 2023 Players Championship.
Unfortunately, Bryson Dechambeau isn’t here this year to top another 3 wood into the creek on the fourth hole but, thankfully, his caddie, Tim Tucker, will be in attendance on the bag for Kurt Kitayama after a massive win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Kitayama went off as a 150-1 longshot to win last week, and it has me thinking.
On Tuesday, TSN’s Bob Weeks will give you his Pick Six, a column that has seen him correctly pick the winner of three events since January.
Today, I want to dive into some numbers lower on the oddsboard and see if we can find out very own Kurk Kitayama.
Chris Kirk 75-1
A winner just two weeks ago, your friend and mine Chris Kirk has worked his way from a DFS Darling into a contender on the PGA Tour.
It’s been the tail of two seasons for Kirk on Tour this year.
He played six events during the fall portion of the season, with his best finish being a T30 at Sanderson Farms.
Since the turn of the calendar, Kirk has teed it up five times and has finished inside the Top 5 in three of those, with only one missed cut.
He has gained at least six shots on the field Tee to Green in three of his last five events.
The 37-year-old is also rolling the rock well, and has been a positive putter in six straight tour events. He also has a best rate on Tour for Three Putt Avoidance.
Kirk has struggled with the putter at Sawgrass since 2019, however he has putted well here before and I’m hopeful his recent form will help navigate these tricky greens.
Here’s a fun stat for you.
Since 2021, Chris Kirk leads all players in this field with an average of 1.83 Strokes Gained Tee to Green per round at a Pete Dye designed course.
After missing the cut here in 2022, I fully expect Kirk to give some of the bigger names a scare this week.
Brian Harman 150-1
All right. Let’s get weird.
Brian Harman has missed three of his last four cuts.
And the lefty has lost strokes to the field ball-striking in four straight.
But let’s take a moment and zoom out from the numbers.
Harman missed the cut at the API last week, something he has done in three straight trips and his best finish there was a T13 in 2017.
The week prior, he missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational, an event he has not cracked the Top 40 in since 2014!
In 2021 he finished outside of the Top 35 in his three events leading into the Players Championship before tying for third.
In 2019 he missed five of his previous seven cuts before tying for eighth in this event.
It’s a total dart at 150-1, but so was Kurt Kitayama last week.
Davis Riley 180-1
After cracking the Top 10 six times last season, expectations were upped this season for Davis Riley.
And like many 26-year-olds, Riley had to fall on his face a few times before getting his game back in order this year.
Riley opened the season with a missed cut, his best finish over his next 10 starts was a T19 at Sanderson Farms, which was a disappointing result given the strength of the field.
And yet, it seems like better days have arrived.
Riley, after failing to crack the Top 60 in four straight tournaments, found his game at the Honda Classic a few weeks ago.
And he very quietly worked his way up the leaderboard at the Arnolad Palmer last week, finishing T8, thanks in large part scoring the low-round of the day, a 6-under 66.
Last year, four of Riley’s Top 10’s came over a five-event stretch.
He can be very inconsistent with his game, but it seems like he’s found something with his game recently.
If you’re holding a ticket on him at 180-1 and see him on your TV on Sunday, you should be happy that he’s in the mix.
Tread lightly with this one, it has boom or bust written all over it.
Taylor Montgomery 190-1
If a putting contest ever breaks out, Taylor Montgomery is the guy you want.
Montgomery was promoted from the Korn Ferry Tour this season and hit the ground running.
The rookie finished inside the Top 15 in eight of his first nine PGA Tour events and his flatstick was a major factor.
According to RickRunGood.com, Montgomery leads the PGA Tour this season in several putting categories
One-Putt Percentage
Putting Average
Putting from 4-8 feet
Putts Per Round
He also ranks inside the Top 10 in:
Average Distance of Putts made (6)
Putting inside 10 feet (6)
SG: Putting (4)
Montgomery isn’t the best with a driver in his hand, however if he’s able to plot his way around TPC Sawgrass, there’s a timeline where he gives himself some looks for birdie and converts.
With most players, you hope they hit it extremely well and putt to average. This week for Taylor Montgomery, I’m hoping he stays out of trouble and gives himself plenty of looks to score.
Doug Ghim 310-1
Throw every stat out the window.
Doug Ghim hasn’t finished inside the Top 20 of a Tour event since the 3M Open in July.
He’s missed eight of his last 12 cuts and hasn’t gained more than one shot on the field in Strokes Gained: Total since that same tournament in July.
And yet TPC Sawgrass is the perfect place for him to turn it all around.
Ghim has played here just twice in his young career, making a run at the championship in 2021 and tying for sixth here last season.
I fell in love with Doug Ghim watching him in the penultimate group at this very tournament on Sunday in 2021.
Alongside Justin Thomas, Ghim imploded en route to a 6-over 78 while Thomas masterfully worked his way around Sawgrass carding a 68 and winning the tournament.
Doug Ghim has found his way into the winning group on Sunday at this tournament before.
Why not win the whole damn thing this time around?