Way too early Super Bowl LIX odds

Luke Bellus

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Congratulations to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Sunday night, Mahomes secured the third Super Bowl of his career with a 25-22 overtime win over the San Francisco 49ers.

With this season officially in the rear view mirror, there is no time to waste looking ahead to next year.

Next year’s Super Bowl will take place at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. It will be the eighth time the Big Game happens in the Big Easy, with the most recent coming in 2013 when the 49ers lost to the Baltimore Ravens. 

This season, the Chiefs and the 49ers entered the year with some of the shortest odds to win it all. Kansas City were the favourites, and the 49ers were tied for the third-shortest odds. 

But that hasn’t been the case in recent memory. 

At this time two years ago, the Philadelphia Eagles were 40-1 to win the Super Bowl. But the addition of A.J. Brown and a fantastic off-season by general manager Howie Roseman catapulted the team closer to the top of the odds board when September rolled around. 

Looking back three years ago at this time, the Cincinnati Bengals were coming off a 4-11 season and nobody expected a run to the Super Bowl the following season. Cincinnati opened with odds of 66-1 and fell just short of cashing those tickets, losing 23-20 to the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI.

In February 2020, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were stuck in neutral and hadn’t made the playoffs in 12 years. They opened at 40-1 to win Super Bowl LV. However, adding Tom Brady to the team changed everything and Tampa Bay went on to win its first Super Bowl since 2002. 

So yes, the teams at the top of the odds board are there for a reason. But that doesn’t mean a team in the middle of the pack can’t make a leap to shake up the league's landscape. 

Let’s look at who the oddsmakers expect to be in contention for the 2024 season. 

Unsurprisingly, the two teams we just saw in the Super Bowl are the favourites to get back there in New Orleans next year. 

Four of the top six teams on the list are from the AFC. Any team coming out of that side of the bracket next year will need a good off-season to elevate them in a loaded conference.

In the NFC, the conversation at this time last year was about the 25-1 Detroit Lions. While they failed to achieve the ultimate goal, a successful season has seen their Super Bowl odds slashed in half. 

The up-and-coming Green Bay Packers sit at 25-1 after exceeding expectations last season. Can they one-up the Lions and have a better season than Detroit in 2024? 

Here is a look at the top 13 teams on the odds board to win the Super Bowl from this time last year and how they did this season. 

Chiefs +600: Reached Super Bowl (won division)
Bills +850: Eliminated in Divisional round (won division)
Eagles +900: Eliminated in Wild Card round 
Bengals +900: Missed playoffs 
49ers +900: Reached Super Bowl (won division)
Cowboys +1600: Eliminated in Wild Card round (won division)
Ravens +1700: Eliminated in Championship game (won division)
Chargers +2000: Missed playoffs 
Jaguars +2500: Missed playoffs 
Lions +2500: Eliminated in Championship game (won division)
Jets +2500: Missed playoffs 
Rams +3000: Eliminated in Wild Card round
Dolphins +3000: Eliminated in Wild Card round

Of the top 13 teams listed, nine were playoff teams, six were division winners and all four teams who reached championship weekend appear on this list. 

The two divisional winners not on the list are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who sat at 75-1, and the Houston Texans, who sported the longest odds at 250-1. 

For context, based on this year’s list, that would mean the Carolina Panthers win their division next season. It’s remarkable how quickly Houston was able to turn things around. 

Of the four that missed the postseason, two (Bengals and Jets) lost their starting quarterbacks to a season-ending injury and never recovered. And the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars fell flat on their face, ending up way short of expectations. 

Here are two teams that have caught my eye to win the Super Bowl next year at their current price. 

Houston Texans 25-1 

At this time last year, I liked the Detroit Lions as a team to contend in the NFC. Their Super Bowl price was 25-1. I didn’t feel it was long enough, so I passed. 

And there they were in the NFC Championship game, one of the last four teams standing. While Detroit didn’t convert on their chance to win a Super Bowl this year, it’s a good reminder to myself to trust what I like and play what I want to play. 

Would I prefer the Texans at a longer number? Sure. But that won’t matter when they make a deep run in the playoffs next year, 25-1, 30-1, 50-1. It’ll all feel like value when they’re still one of the few teams in the league standing. 

This Texans team feels legit. 

I love the influence of the 49ers culture that this team has as well, with head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik both being just one season removed from that San Fran coaching staff. 

At quarterback, there might not be a player who provides more value to his current team than C.J. Stroud. 

Two years ago, my guy Andrew Marini told me, “In a salary cap world, being able to contend with a QB on a rookie deal is the window.” 

And he’s 100 per cent right. 

With Stroud at quarterback, the Texans have answered the most important question this league will ask of your roster: Can your quarterback elevate your roster?

He can. He’s a difference-maker.

Houston currently has the most cap space of any playoff team this season, and I expect them to use that money wisely. 

Atlanta Falcons 50-1 

The Arthur Smith era is over in Atlanta. 

And a disappointing one it was. 

Hand up, I got duped by the Falcons this year and liked them to win the NFC South, a division I assumed would be one of the worst in the NFL.

It was. But that still wasn’t enough for the Falcons to take advantage of. 

Instead, it was another year of Smith and quarterback Desmond Ridder tripping over themselves to lose one-score games. 

After going 5-8 in one-score games last year, Atlanta followed that up with a 4-6 record in those games this year. 

Twenty-three games decided by one score or less over the last two seasons. Nine wins. That just isn’t good enough.

But Smith is gone, and I’m willing to wager on Ridder not being this team’s No. 1 quarterback next year.

Earlier, I talked about how a big summer can leapfrog teams into contention before the season even begins. 

I like how Atlanta has started their off-season, and their $29 million of cap space is currently $14 million more than the league average. 

If I were in charge in Atlanta, I would do whatever I could get to Russell Wilson or Baker Mayfield as my QB for 2024. 

The roster on both sides of the ball is good enough to not only be competitive, but win the division. 

And at 50-1, if I believe a team can have at least one home playoff game, I’m comfortable playing that.