Nov 26, 2022
FanDuel Best Bets: TSN EDGE Staff Picks For Week 12
As for the TSN EDGE team, we are feeling pretty confident about our picks following another 5-1 week. Here are our FanDuel Best Bets for Week 12 NFL Sunday.
For the first time in NFL history, a defending Super Bowl champion will be an underdog of 14+ points this Sunday.
The Los Angeles Rams, which will be without Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp among others, are currently a 15.5-point underdog at FanDuel for Sunday’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Rams are a league-worst 2-7-1 against the spread, which is the worst 10-game ATS start by a reigning champion in more than two decades.
While LA has been the worst team in the NFL in terms of covering the spread, two of the league’s best ATS teams will go head-to-head on Sunday.
The Cincinnati Bengals are 7-1 against the spread dating back to Week 3.
The only team with a better ATS record over that span?
The Tennessee Titans at 8-0.
The Titans and Bengals are a combined 15-1 against the spread dating back to Week 3.
Cincinnati is currently a 1-point road favourite for Sunday’s showdown.
As for the TSN EDGE team, we are feeling pretty confident about our picks following another 5-1 week.
Here are our FanDuel Best Bets for Week 12 NFL Sunday.
Domenic Padula: Dolphins Team Total over 30.5
The Miami Dolphins won four straight games before their bye in Week 11.
They scored 31+ points in each of their past three wins.
After getting two full weeks to prepare for their Week 12 opponent, they’ll host the 1-8-1 Houston Texans.
The Texans have lost five straight, and they just gave up 23 points to Taylor Heinicke and a Washington Commanders offence that doesn’t have nearly as much talent at the skill positions as the Dolphins.
While I strongly considered some player props, Miami is a 14-point favourite in a game with a total set at 46.5, and the blowout potential could cause some issues when it comes to targeting individual players.
I’ll still circle some Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle player props, but in terms of a best bet, I like the Dolphins team total over 30.5 points.
Miami has gone over this mark in four of their past six games have Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished.
I’ll bet on them to do it again versus Houston on Sunday.
Eric Cohen: Seattle -3.5 vs Las Vegas
We are getting a nice price here because people still don’t believe in the Seahawks or Geno Smith. Off a bye Seattle has another opportunity to show the NFL they are a legitimate playoff team.
Seattle is 6-4, they are at home and well rested. Would you believe me if I told you Geno Smith had a better passer rating than Patrick Mahomes, Jalen hurts, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. In fact the only quarterback in the league with a better passer rating than Smith is Tua Tagovailoa.
Seattle had won 4 games in a row before falling just short to a desperate Tampa Bay team in Germany. With Kenneth Walker now the focal point of the Seahawks offence they are extremely well balanced as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are having productive seasons.
The Raiders looked to have hit rock bottom losing to the Colts a couple weeks ago. They got a lucky overtime win last in Denver but I certainly don’t think that is enough to take them seriously. If Seattle can contain Davante Adams this game could get out of hand quickly. How do you not take a Pete Carroll coached team over a team being led by Josh McDaniels.
Keep riding Seattle until they get the respect they deserve.
Chris Amberley - Ravens / Jags Under 43.5
On the other side of the ball, don’t expect too much production from the Jags. Baltimore is a top-10 scoring defence, surrendering an average of 14.5 points over its past four games.
Finally, the trends support the under as well. In Trevor Lawrence’s 14 career home games, the under is 12-2, falling short of the total by an average of over 7 points.
Evan Render: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 at Jaguars
We're rolling with these picks right now, so let’s keep it going...
To be honest, the Ravens looked terrible last week against Carolina in a game they somehow won by double-digits and were a few lucky breaks away from covering. However, I think it was a one-off for this Baltimore sqaud that were coming off impressive victories in Tampa Bay and New Orleans.
On the Jacksonville side, they're just not a good team. I think it's time the public starts grasping this. There's not much they do well, plus the don't really have much of a home field advantage. This is a good spot for Baltimore in a "get right" game after last week’s dud.
They picked up Roquan Smith a few weeks ago to shore up that line, and he has 12 tackles in two games since coming over. Combine him with Justin Houston and the rest of this vaunted Baltimore defensive unit, and i think it'll be a long day for Trevor Lawrence.
On the offensive side, I think the Ravens should be able to run all day up and down the field. They're averaging over 173 yards on the ground during this current four-game win streak. I look at both rosters and just feel 3.5 points is too small of a gap between a perennial playoff contender against a team looking like it's headed for another top ten pick in the NFL draft.
Give me Baltimore -3.5
Connor Ford: Terry McLaurin Over 62.5 Receiving Yards
Terry McLaurin remains one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL.
After an inconsistent start to the season, McLaurin has had a clear resurgence with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. Here is where McLaurin ranks in some key metrics over the last five weeks:
Terry McLaurin Weeks 7-11
1st in Yards Per Route Run (3.57)
2nd in Targets Per Route Run (2.77)
2nd in Air Yards (579)
2nd in ADOT (13.5)
McLaurin has the fifth-most receiving yards during that span, despite the Commanders taking a run-heavy approach on offence. Only the Bears have more rush attempts since week 7, yet ‘Scary Terry’ continues to produce.
This week’s matchup is a smash spot against an Atlanta Falcons defence that ranks 28th in Pass DVOA. They’ve allowed the third-most receiving yards to the wide receiver position this season.
15 different receivers have seen 8+ targets against the Falcons this year. 13 of them have gone over McLaurin’s receiving total of 62.5. He’s averaging 8.6 targets with Heinicke under center, so he should be a safe bet to go over if he sees his usual volume.
Terry McLaurin over 62.5 receiving yards is my FanDuel Best Bet for week 12.
Luke Bellus: Juwan JohnsonTouchdown +420
All Juwan Johnsondoes is score touchdowns.
I'm not overthinking my best bet this week.
I'm taking a guy with at least one touchdown in four of his last five games, and I'm getting him at +420.
Since Week 7, Andy Dalton has thrown for 11 touchdowns, five of them have been to Johnson.
I believe this 49ers-Saints game could be higher scoring, and when the Saints get down to the redzone, expect Dalton to look for his guy.
Enjoy the games.