Welcome to Week 15 of the NFL season.

If you bet on the San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at FanDuel, that bet slip turned green after they became the first team in the league to clinch a division title with a 21-13 win over the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.

There’s still a lot left to be determined over the final four weeks of the regular season, and division winners is one of them.

Heading into the final stretch, motivation will become a theme with some teams in a much more desperate position than others as they fight for playoff seeding.

That’s something to keep in mind when handicapping games this weekend.

The alternative is that you can tail the TSN EDGE staff picks, which has been a winning system this season.

Here are our TSN EDGE staff NFL Sunday picks for Week 15.

Domenic Padula: Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

After falling to 2-7 following a Week 9 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, Panthers’ fans were already looking forward to next season and beyond.

However, Carolina has won three of its past four games to improve to 5-8.

While they’d have the worst record in the division if they played in the AFC East, AFC North or the NFC East, the Panthers are currently one game back of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South.

Plus, Carolina owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Tampa Bay right now and will visit the Buccaneers on New Year’s Day for a game that could determine the NFC South winner.

In order to strengthen their position before that head-to-head meeting with the Buccaneers, the Panthers need a win over the Steelers on Sunday.

The Pittsburgh defence will provide a tough test for the Carolina rushing attack.

Still, the Panthers already have wins over the Bucs, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons and the Denver Broncos at Bank of America Stadium, and I think they can win this game on the strength of their defence with Kenny Pickett in concussion protocol for Pittsburgh.

Carolina has lost eight straight games as a favourite, which is one shy of the longest streak in the Super Bowl era.

I’ll take them to end that slide on Sunday and move into first place in the NFC South with a win and cover against the Steelers.

Chris Amberley - Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets Under 43.5 

The Lions offence was spectacular last week against the Vikings, but don’t expect a repeat performance versus the Jets.

Minnesota’s defence is a fraud. New York’s on the other hand, is a nightmare matchup.

The Jets will be in Jared Goff’s kitchen all game long. Goff has been phenomenal at home this season, but things change when you take him outside.

Goff has a 20-to-3 TD-to-INT rate at Ford Field. On the road, he has more picks (4) than touchdowns (2). He averages 277 passing yards per game at home, compared to only 227 as a visitor.

When the pressure heats up, he melts. Goff’s passing grade drops 33 points under duress, while his completion percentage craters to 43.8%.

On the other side of the ball, Mike White is out meaning the New York offence is in Zach Wilson’s hands. Wilson boasts the lowest passing grade of any QB with at least two starts this season.

The Jets are averaging just 14 points over his last four starts and New York will go out of its way to take the ball out of his hands. Expect a run heavy approach which will bleed the clock dry.

Eric Cohen: Buffalo Bills -3.5 vs Miami Dolphins (1st half)

The Miami Dolphins defeated the Buffalo Bills 21-19 in Week 3 in one of the most misleading scores you will ever see. One look at the box score and you would think this score can’t be right. Josh Allen threw for 400 yards. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 186. The Bills rushed for 115 yards, the Dolphins rushed for 41. The blistering heat played a huge factor in that improbable Miami victory, but it will be a much different story on Saturday night in Buffalo.

A lot has been made about the Dolphins needing heaters playing last week in Los Angeles. Now they step into a hostile environment with heavy winds and snow expected. Tagovailoa has never won in these conditions and he has been terrible in those loses. He is already in a slump with back-to-back ugly performances on the road in good conditions in San Francisco and Los Angeles. Tyreek Hill also was shaken up in L.A and his first meeting against the Bills he managed just 33 receiving yards when he was healthy.

At the end of the year it is very possible the narrative with the Dolphins will be they peaked too soon because right now they are a fragile team and are about to step into a place that has been a house of horrors for them since the Bills drafted Josh Allen. Miami has not won in Buffalo since 2016 and I think it could get ugly for the Dolphins again. Instead of risking Miami getting a back door cover in the game I feel like the best bet is to play Buffalo in the first half as they will be much more comfortable in these conditions and will jump out to an early lead. The Bills can clinch a playoff spot with a win and I think laying only 3.5 points in the first half is a very short price.

Evan Render: Kansas City Chiefs over 31.5 points

Immediately after Patrick Mahomes called himself out after throwing three interceptions against the Denver Broncos last week, the first thing I did was check the schedule to see Kansas City’s next opponent.

Low and behold, it’s the worst team in the league - The Houston Texans.

32 points seems a lot in todays NFL with missed extra points, missed field goals and low percentage red zone offenses. However, this is about as sure-fire of a “get right” game as you’re going to have. The Texans absolutely cannot stop the run no matter the circumstances, and their already lacklustre secondary is dealing with some serious injuries this weekend.

It’s a fairly simple play for me. I could see Kansas City scoring 35+ with relative ease in this one. Especially with all the short fields Davis Mills will be giving them throughout the game.  After all, they put up 34 last weekend in what Patrick Mahomes called one of his worst games in a long time.

He’ll be better this week. Book it.

Chiefs team total over is the play.

Connor Ford: Michael Pittman Over 5.5 Receptions

I know what you’re probably thinking. Can you really put your trust in Matt Ryan and the Indianapolis Colts? Well, just for this week I can. That’s how awful the Minnesota Vikings' secondary has been.

The numbers speak for themselves. The Vikings ranks 27th in Pass DVOA, while allowing the most receptions (15.2) and yards (208.4) per game to the wide receiver position. They’ve allowed over 300 passing yards seven of the last eight weeks. 

While the Colts offence leaves a lot to be desired (32nd in DVOA), Pittman has been a consistent target all season. His 6.3 receptions per game is tied with Davante Adams for the ninth most in the NFL, while his 8.9 targets per game ranks ninth as well. 

Most of the routes Pittman has run this season are shorter concepts, as indicated by his low ADOT of 6.7. As a result, Pittman is posting a 71% catch rate. While this dink-and-dunk offence isn’t a sustainable recipe for success, it sure is great for racking up receptions. 

Overall, Pittman has gone over this line in seven of the ten games Matt Ryan has started this season. While he can’t be trusted to have a big yardage day, I think Pittman will see just enough volume to get him to six catches.

Luke Bellus: T. J. Hockenson Under 49.5 Yards 

I like T.J. Hockenson a lot. 

I just don't like this matchup for him. 

We all know the issue with Indianapolis isn't the defence. 

And their ability to take tight ends out of the equation plays a reason why. 

 The Colts are giving up just 45 yards per game to tight ends per game and haven't allowed more than 45 yards to one since Hunter Henry had 50 in Week 9. 

On the flip side, despite averaging six receptions per game since joining the Vikings, Hockenson has gone over this number just twice in six games with Minnesota. 

He'll be involved in this game, I expected a few critical third downs to come his way, and I wouldn't be surprised if he finds the endzone. 

I just don't think it comes with many big-yard plays. 

Give me his under in a game that Indy simply can't win.... right?