You’ve probably heard a fair bit about not overreacting to what we saw last week by this point.

Well, we’ve seen that theme play out to some degree this week with the traders at FanDuel not overreacting to the Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos all losing in Week 1.

Each of them is among the four teams that are currently favoured by double digits at FanDuel.

Double-digit favourites went 28-20-3 against the spread last season – a 58.3 per cent cover rate.

It will be interesting to see if that trend continues this season.

At least one of us is banking on that trend continuing in Week 2 on Sunday Night Football.

Domenic Padula: Green Bay Packers -10 vs. Chicago Bears

I played this at Packers -9.5 on FanDuel earlier in the week and I feel comfortable giving out Packers -10 as my FanDuel Best Bet.

Green Bay’s last four wins over Chicago have each been by double digits.

The Packers are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in their last six Sunday Night Football games.

Matt LaFleur’s teams are 9-0 straight up and against the spread after a loss.

The Bears got a break last week some favourable weather conditions against San Francisco, but I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with Green Bay on the road in prime time.

Aaron Rodgers is looking for redemption after last week against a team he has absolutely dominated in recent years.

I’ll make the Packers -10 my FanDuel Best Bet.

Eric Cohen: New York Giants -125 money line vs Carolina Panthers

Usually when something looks too good to be true, it is, but I am very confused by this line? It is well known in the NFL that you are automatically favoured by three points (sometimes more depending on your home field advantage) just for being at home so what this line tells us is that on a neutral field Carolina is better than New York? This line is simply wrong.

I am not going to read too much into what I saw Week 1, but the Giants are not the same football team under Brian Daboll. It is clear Daboll has the players respect, something that could not be said under Joe Judge. Daboll showed the city of New York he means business going for two and the lead down by one with just over a minute left at Tennessee. With Dak Prescott’s injury, the Giants are all of the sudden in the mix for an NFC playoff spot if they start the season 2-0.

Another huge takeaway from New York’s win was the health of Saquon Barkley!! The former second overall pick had a great rookie year in 2019, but has been hampered by injuries since. Last week Barkley looked awesome shredding the Titans for 164 yards on the ground.

Overall, it was a struggle for Baker Mayfield in his home debut last week and I don’t see it getting any better on the road against a Giants team that is surrounded by positivity for the first time in years. Give me the Giants to win the game at a short price on FanDuel.

Connor Ford: Christian Kirk Over 58.5 Receiving Yards 

Kirk was paid like a number one receiver in the offseason, signing a four-year, $72-millon deal with Jacksonville. Whether he will live up to that contract remains to be seen… but the Jaguars certainly made him an integral part of their offence in week one. 

Kirk opened the season with six receptions for 117 yards against the Commanders. He saw 12 targets, which led the team and ranked T-5th among all wide receivers. However, not all targets are equal. Let’s dive deeper. 

In week one, Kirk ranked: 

8th in YAC (50) 

3rd in Air Yards (128) 

T-7th in Target Share (32%) 

 

He also ranked 7th in ADOT (10.7) among the 26 receivers that saw at least eight targets. 

What does this mean? Not only did Kirk see heavy volume, but his targets were down the field and he was efficient with them. Take away his 50 yards after the catch and he still would have went over this week’s receiving total.

The Jaguars finished T-4th in pass attempts in week one, throwing 42 times. In 2021, they passed 62% of the time, which ranked 7th in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence will probably have to keep airing it out on Sunday, especially if they fall behind early to the Colts, who are listed as a 3.5-point favourite. 

Expect Kirk to once again be the focal point in this pass-heavy offence. Give me the over on his receiving yards as my FanDuel Best Bet. 

Evan Render: Over 46.5 Falcons At Rams

IF IT AIN’T BROKE..DON’T FIX IT..

That’s where my heads at with the biggest play of my week 2 card, and my that play is Atlanta and LA over 46.5. That number appears too low for a Falcons team who looked fairly decent in week 1, and a Rams offense that will be out for blood after that national embarrassment against Buffalo to start the season

Atlanta’s metrics on the defensive side were not good last year. Other than AJ Terrell, there’s not really a marquee player on this unit. It’s essentially a perfect matchup for Sean McVay’s squad, who sit as Ten point favourites at FanDuel.

 LA really struggled to protect Matt Stafford against the Bills, who have one of the best pass rushes in the league, especially with Von Miller added to that mix. The Rams’ offensive line without the presence of Andrew Whitworth struggled heavily.

This shouldn’t be the case against a much weaker pass rush from Atlanta.

With an extra three days preparation, Stafford and his offensive unit should be able to scheme more than enough to improve on their protection packages from week 1. I’m confident LA can at least put up 30+ points at home, in a “get right” game. The question then remains, can Mariota and his offense response with 17 or more points on the road? Absolutely. I’m higher on Atlanta’s offense than most, specifically because of their pass-catching talent.

This number seems way too low for me. Give me over 46.5 in Falcons at the Rams.

Chris Amberly: - Lions -1.5 vs. Commanders

We all know the saying good teams win, but great teams cover. No team has covered the spread more often than the Lions since Dan Campbell arrived in 2021, and they did so again in Week 1 versus a very good Eagles squad.

This week oddsmakers have upped the ante. Detroit is favored by 1.5 points over Washington, marking the first time they’ve been laying points in 24 games. That’s hard to believe, but the Lions’ status as favorites is justified.

Detroit put up 33 points against the Eagles, averaging over 6.0 yards per carry. The Lions were Pro Football Focus’ top graded rushing unit of the week, and they can definitely expose a Commanders defence that graded out in the bottom-seven versus the run.

Washington also graded out as a bottom-seven pass defence, allowing 11.5 yards per reception to the Jags. Their top pass rusher Chase Young remains out, and given the strength of Detroit’s O-line (ranked fifth overall by PFF), Jared Goff should have all day to throw.

The Lions are 12-6 against the spread in their past 18 games, including 8-2 at home.

Luke Bellus: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins 

When the Baltimore Ravens are healthy, they win football games. 

The team was the one seed in the AFC last year on Dec. 1 before injuries derailed them and they missed the playoffs. 

Now, after curb-stomping the Jets last week, Lamar Jackson has a chance to redeem himself against a Miami team that shut him down last season on Thursday Night Football. 

Speaking of last week, those 300 yards of passing the Ravens allowed to Joe Flacco... doesn't look great. 

But when I tell you 120 of those came in the fourth quarter of a blowout, it provides all the context you need. 

The Dolphins should be good this year, and I like them. But this week, they run into the buzzsaw that is the Baltimore Ravens with a highly motivated quarterback.  

I don't often like laying points, but this feels like an appropriate time.