Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the top two choices to win NFL regular season MVP at FanDuel.

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are the top two choices to win the Super Bowl.

They’ll go head-to-head in one of the most highly anticipated showdowns of the season on Sunday.

For the first time in his NFL career, Mahomes will be a home underdog.

The Chiefs have been the favourite in 41 straight home starts by Mahomes, including the playoffs.

However, Allen and the Bills have looked absolutely unstoppable in any environment other than under the scorching hot sun in Miami, and they will be looking for revenge after Kansas City ended Buffalo’s season in back-to-back years. 

For what it’s worth, underdogs and the under continue to cash at high rates.

Underdogs are 45-31-3 against the spread this season.

The under has gone 47-33-1, including another low scoring game between the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football.

What should we expect to see this Sunday?

Here are our TSN EDGE staff picks for Week 6 in the NFL.

Domenic Padula: Randall Cobb over 38.5 receiving yards

If betting on the NFL was easy, then a lot more people would be doing it more often.

For the most part, it isn’t. 

Then again, every once in a while the players will tell us what we should be betting on to happen and if we just pay attention, we can capitalize on the opportunity.

That was the case last week when Aaron Rodgers told The Pat McAfee Show that he was extremely impressed with Randall Cobb’s form and thought that he deserved more opportunities.
Well on Sunday, Cobb got a lot more opportunities in the form of seven catches for 99 yards on 13 targets in a loss to the New York Giants. 

He soared over the 38.5 receiving yards that FanDuel set his player prop over/under at.

After a breakout performance, I thought we would see an adjustment to Cobb’s over/under for this week.

Fortunately, we get it at the exact same number.

There’s no reason to think that Rodgers will lean on his veteran receiver once again versus the New York Jets, which will line up Sauce Gardner and Quincy Williams opposite Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs on the outside, funneling the pass game to the middle of the field.

Cobb should have the most favourable match-up of the Green Bay receivers, opening the door for another strong performance. 

Cobb has gone over this total in three straight games.

I’ll make Cobb over 38.5 receiving yards my FanDuel Best Bet for Week 6.

Eric "The Big E" Cohen: Bengals -2.5 at Saints

Nice spot for the Bengals here against a team battling with a ton of injuries. The Saints will be without wide receivers Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas and their top cornerback Marshon Lattimore. New Orleans will also continue to have Andy Dalton under centre in a revenge spot against his long team the Bengals.

Cincinnati cane up one play short on the road against the Ravens last week playing without their number two wide out Tee Higgins who is hoping to return this week. Overall the Bengals are the much healthier team, and I love the fact that Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr chase are returning home to where they had so much success at LSU. Since starting the season 0-2 the Bengals came away with double-digit victories over the Jets and Dolphins and could have easily won a third straight last week.

The Saints on the other hand are the only team to lose to Carolina, needed a crazy 4th quarter comeback to beat Atlanta and just gave up 32 points at home to Seattle in a game they were very fortunate to win. The Bengals are the better, healthier team in much better form and this is a very short price in a season where home field advantage just doesn’t seem to exist anymore.

Connor Ford: Mike Evans Over 72.5 Receiving Yards

The Pittsburgh Steelers defence is a mess. Sure, T.J. Watt is injured, but it’s still not what you would expect from a Mike Tomlin led team. I think Tom Brady and the Buccaneers will take advantage and roll this week. 

Through five weeks, the Steelers have given up the second-most receiving yards, while also allowing opponents to score 25.6 points per game, the sixth-worst mark in the league.

Their inability to shutdown explosive plays has been their most concerning issue. They’ve allowed 30 plays of 15+ yards to wide receivers, which is the most in the NFL this season. That’s where Mike Evans comes in.

Evans is still the go-to guy for Tom Brady when he needs a big play. Since 2018, Evans leads the NFL with 88 catches of 20+ yards. Guess who led the league in completions of 20+ yards last season? Brady, with 75. It’s a perfect marriage. 

While those big plays haven’t been there as frequently this season, the offense is finally starting to get healthy. Chris Godwin got a full practice in on Friday and while Julio Jones is doubtful to play, Russell Gage is a more than serviceable number three option.

The Bucs rank third in the NFL with 41.4 pass attempts per game. Brady is coming off back-to-back games with 350+ passing yards and I expect that trend to continue in a smash matchup, with Evans being the main beneficiary. Give me the over on his receiving yards as my FanDuel Best Bet.  

Evan Render: Bills/Chiefs Over 53.5

Game of the year? No doubt. This has the potential makings of another Bills/Chiefs classic, even though we’re still just in week six.                                              

When these two teams meet, it’s almost a sure thing there’s going to be touchdowns instead of field goals, game-tying drives in the fourth, and quarterback play that heavily contrasts with whatever you want to call that Thursday Night Football game.

I could probably go on for hours about the reasons why – specifically in this spot – both teams have the potential to score in the 30’s.

NFL team points per play:

1. Kansas City

2. Baltimore

3. Buffalo

In other words, these teams can score – quickly and efficiently –  a manner the most in the NFL can’t.

The last three meetings had 78, 58 and 62 points combined, in what most would remember as some of the best games of the decade. I think getting a number like 53.5 tells me the game should be high-scoring, which is why it’s the highest total of the week, but it doesn’t seem to match up with what we’ve seen in recent years when these two AFC titans go head-to-head.

I also think it’s a case of whoever has the ball last wins this game. It could be 21-21 in the fourth quarter, and I still wouldn’t be too nervous about hitting this number. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes can lead touchdown drives in minutes, if not seconds.

Kansas City just surrendered 29 points to Las Vegas, going over that game total of 51.5 with relative ease.

53.5 is a nice number in a game-of-the-year possibility with the Bills coming to town.

Give me Bills/Chiefs over 53.5 points on FanDuel.

Chris Amberly: Jacksonville +1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts

 There are so many reasons to love the Jaguars in this matchup.

Let’s start with DVOA rankings, a metric that grades a team’s performance based on the quality of their opponents.

The Colts rank dead last in that category, even worse than the Commanders and Bears who just set offensive football back three decades on Thursday Night.

Jacksonville meanwhile, ranks seventh in DVOA ahead of Super Bowl contenders like the Chiefs and Chargers.

How about pressure? The Jags rank eighth, despite blitzing on only a quarter of their defensive snaps. Indy’s offensive line grades out as the sixth worst pass blocking unit per Pro Football Focus, and Matt Ryan is abysmal when the heat is on.

Ryan is completing 47.9% of his passes under duress, throwing five interceptions and absorbing 21 sacks. He’s also fumbled a league-high 11 times.

Finally, recent history. The Colts under Frank Reich are 1-7 against the spread versus Jacksonville, losing five of those games outright, including a 24-0 decision in Week 2.

Yes, the Jags are coming off a brutal loss to the Texans, but don’t lose sight of the fact they outgained Houston by nearly 200 yards.

Luke Bellus: Carolina Panthers +10 vs. Los Angeles Rams 

I'm cold as ice in this article. So I'm going with my guy P.J. and the points on Sunday to get us out of this slump. 

The Rams offence hasn't impressed me at all this season, and if Carolina gets any sort of pass rush, Matthew Stafford might give us a few turnovers. 

You can read more about my love of P.J. Walker here. 

Happy P.J. Walker Week.