First Look At The Lines: Betting odds for the BMW Championship

Dustin Johnson absolutely annihilated the field at The Northern Trust last week.

Johnson, who was among the pre-tournament betting favourites to win at +2000 odds, cleared the next closest contender by an incredible 11 strokes.

That was the largest margin of victory on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson won the BellSouth Classic by 13 shots way back in 2006.

With his 22nd career victory, D.J. moved back to No. 1 in the world rankings.

The Northern Trust marked the first of three FedEx Cup Playoff events, with the ultimate goal being the FedEx Cup and the $15 million prize that goes along with it.

The 2020 season is officially over for players that were not inside the top-70 after last week.

That includes notable names like Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth, who will not advance to the BMW Championship.

The top-30 players in the world following this event will advance to East Lake for the Tour Championship.

This week's BMW Championship will be contested at Olympia Fields Country Club just outside of Chicago, which hasn't hosted a PGA Tour event since Jim Furyk won the 2003 US Open.

However, it was the course for the 2015 US Amateur, which was won by Bryson DeChambeau, who sports +1200 odds to win outright this week.

There are still four Canadians in the running to win the prestigious FedEx Cup – each of them with long odds to lift the trophy at the BMW come Sunday.

Corey Conners is thought to have the best opportunity at +12500 odds. He’s followed by Mackenzie Hughes at +15000. Adam Hadwin is even further down the board at +25000 odds to win outright. Nick Taylor rounds out the quartet as the longest of the long shots at +40000.

Here is our first look at the field for the BMW Championship.

 

Betting Odds To Win the BMW Championship – Top-20

Dustin Johnson +800
Jon Rahm +1000
Bryson DeChambeau +1200
Justin Thomas +1200
Rory McIlroy +1600
Xander Schauffele +1600
Webb Simpson +2000
Daniel Berger +2000
Collin Morikawa +2200
Jason Day +3300
Patrick Reed +3300
Hideki Matsuyama +3300
Tony Finau +3300
Patrick Cantlay +3300
Viktor Hovland +3300
Scottie Scheffler +3300
Tiger Woods +4000
Adam Scott +4000
Tyrrell Hatton +4000
Kevin Kisner +4000

 

Hard not to expect D.J. to dominate yet again

There are few players on the planet that can make winning look as effortless and easy as Dustin Johnson does.

He did just that last week at The Northern Trust, where he shot a career-low round of 60 on Friday and eventually wound up a winner by an astounding 11 strokes.

D.J. shot 30-under par at the event, which was a stroke off matching Ernie Els' all-time record for a four-round tournament when he posted a 31-under at Kapalua in 2003.

Johnson dominated the field in every way imaginable, including gaining an unthinkable 18 shots on the field tee-to-green, in particular.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest that Johnson can't replicate that performance at Olympia Fields and set himself up for an elusive first FedEx Cup title.

The only thing that could bring some pause is his wild inconsistency of late.

While he's won twice in his last six starts and was runner-up at the PGA Championship, D.J. also missed the cut at the Memorial and withdrew after the first round of the 3M Open during that span.

Those performances seem to be in the rearview mirror at this point.

For the most part, there is usually a level of caution with backing any golfer listed as low as +800 against a stacked field.

However, that might caution might not apply for D.J. right now.

 

Tiger remains intriguing option heading into event

At what point do you throw away recent form and decide that Tiger Woods' value to win outright outweighs his recent production?

That very well might be the case this week with the 15-time major champion sitting at +4000 odds to win this event.

In his three tournaments since the hiatus, the Big Cat has hardly put together strong showings, with a T-40th, T-37th and a T-58th.

However, Woods has hit the ball well, gaining strokes on the field tee-to-green in all three instances.

He's been experimenting with different putters in his last two tournaments and made some more putts last Sunday at The Northern Trust.

Keep in mind that this is also a limited field event with just 70 players.

Why is that important?

Each of Tiger’s last four PGA Tour victories have come against smaller fields.

That list includes the 2013 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, the Tour Championship in 2018, The Masters in 2019 and finally the Zozo Championship.

None of those tournaments had the usual full list of competitors, much like this week.

At some point you'd have to expect Tiger to wake up from his slumber and win an important event.

Why not take the extra juice on him at +4000 this week and hope it can happen?

 

Past Five Winners at the BMW Championship

2019: Justin Thomas -25
2018: Keegan Bradley -20
2017: Marc Leishman -23
2016: Dustin Johnson -23
2015: Jason Day -22

*None of these events were held at Olympia Fields

 

FORE YOUR INFORMATION

Trending Up

Kevin Kisner +4000

Kevin Kisner has been flying under the radar in recent weeks, but he shouldn't be with his exceptional play of late.

In his last two events, Kisner has finished tied for fourth at The Northern Trust and tied for third at the Wyndham Championship.

He’s placed in the top-25 in five of his last six starts overall, including another third place showing at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Kisner has gained strokes tee-to-green in five of those last six starts.

Additionally, he has been lights out on the dance floor, gaining at least five strokes on the field in each of his last four events.

Pairing a strong tee-to-green game with a hot putter is a deadly combo.

Kisner could very well lift his fourth PGA Tour trophy at long odds as a quality value pick to win this week.

 

Trending Down

Marc Leishman +15000

If you are looking for a long shot with a realistic chance to win this week, Marc Leishman sticks out in a big way.

Since the tour restart, the affable Aussie has missed four of the last seven cuts.

The three times he made the weekend, Leishman didn't exactly inspire much confidence either with results that include a T-40th, T-52nd and T-58th.

However, Leishman is a world-class player that has the tools to win a big event.

In fact, he won this very tournament in 2017, albeit at a different golf course – one of his five PGA Tour victories to date.

Leishman has also tasted success against other elite fields at both the 2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational and this year's Farmers Insurance Open.

Is he likely to contend this week?

Based off his recent form – no.

However, you're not going to find much more crooked value for a player that is more than capable of competing with the world’s best when he himself is at his best.

If you're feeling lucky this week, even a small bet on Leishman to win the BMW Championship at +15000 odds could result in an absolutely massive payday.

It might just be worth the risk.

*All Betting Information appears as listed by Bodog on Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2020.