Canada sits on the precipice of its first World Cup berth in 36 years.

With three matches remaining in CONCACAF qualifying, Canada is in the driver's seat atop the Octagon with 25 points through 11 matches and with the top three teams in qualifying automatically heading to Qatar this fall, Canada can clinch its first berth World Cup berth since Mexico 1986 as soon as Thursday night.

These are the four different ways that can happen.


1. Canada defeats Costa Rica

This is the most straightforward manner for Canada to punch its ticket on Thursday night and the one that requires absolutely zero other results to go its way. Simply defeat Costa Rica in San Josè and Canada is headed to Qatar. In their previous matchup during qualifying, Canada was a 1-0 winner over Costa Rica in Edmonton last November on a goal by Jonathan David. While Canada has put itself in an advantageous position, Costa Rica has virtually no margin for error in its final three matches. Right now, the Ticos are on the outside looking in. Costa Rica sits in fifth place on 16 points, one back of Panama for the intercontinental playoff spot and five behind Mexico and the United States for automatic qualification. Realistically, catching Panama and then defeating a team from Oceania in the playoff is the most viable route to Qatar for the Ticos, but they're still aiming for all nine remaining points and are going to make Canada's life difficult on Thursday night. This will be the seventh trip Canada has made to Costa Rica where they've previously only won one match. That victory came in a March 1993 friendly when Colin Miller had the only goal in a 1-0 win.

2. Canada draws with Costa Rica + a Panama loss or draw against Honduras

In looking at how Canada forges its path to Qatar, there are ways other than simply accruing points. Teams chasing Canada dropping points can get the job done just as well. Like Costa Rica, Panama is desperate, as well. Yes, they currently occupy the intercontinental playoff spot and would be heavily favoured against any team from Oceania (almost assuredly New Zealand), but they would much prefer the automatic qualification route and that means making up four points on Mexico or the USMNT in the final three games. Panama opens their final three matches at home to Honduras on Thursday night and will be heavily favoured against a team that hasn't won a game in the Octagon, is dead last in the table and has already been eliminated. Historically, Panama is 5-4-5 all-time at home to Honduras. In their last meeting in Panama City, the two teams played to a 2-2 draw in 2017. A loss or draw for Panama is certainly possible, but it would behoove Canada to take care of their own business.

3. Canada draws with Costa Rica + a USMNT draw or loss against Mexico

Here's an interesting one because it might be more feasible than Panama dropping points against Honduras. But make no mistake, Mexico's qualifying campaign has not gone according to plan and it feels like Tata Martino's job is hanging by a thread. At times, it's felt like El Tri has been sleepwalking through these qualifiers. To wit, here are Mexico's last five results: 2-0 loss at USMNT, 2-1 loss at Canada, 2-1 win at 10-man Jamaica, 0-0 draw at home to Costa Rica and a 1-0 win at home to Panama on a late penalty. Despite things not going well and the potential for disaster, El Tri is still loaded with talent and there are few more intimidating venues in world football than the Azteca. They would love nothing more than to reassert their bona fides with a victory at home over the hated USMNT and look to avenge November's loss in Cincinnati. On another famous "Dos a Cero" night for the Americans, El Tri were humiliated on goals by Chelsea's Christian Pulisic and Juventus's Weston McKinnie. The USMNT's last trip to the Azteca came in 2017, also in World Cup qualifying. Michael Bradley's sixth-minute goal gave the US an early lead before it was cancelled out only 17 minutes later by Carlos Vela and the two sides played to a 1-1 draw.

4. Canada loses to Costa Rica + a Panama loss or draw against Honduras + a USMNT loss to Mexico

This is the only scenario in which Canada can clinch on Thursday night with a loss to Costa Rica and it's the one which they would like to contemplate the least since it involves not only a failure to win, but specific results from two other matches. Again, this scenario is far from impossible, but it's probably the most unlikely of the four.