Thirty franchises watched with envy as the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning slugged it out in an entertaining and competitive Stanley Cup final. But the Avalanche winning the Cup is old news now. Stanley Cup futures have had a little time to marinate, and the present moment provides an opportunity for bettors to start determining value for next season. 

Overvalued Bet: Florida Panthers +1000
The Florida Panthers were exposed in the playoffs. Their offence was revealed as one-dimensional with Florida proving too reliant on the rush for goals and undependable on the forecheck and cycle when called upon. 

Compounding matters, the team’s defence was unreliable, surrendering time and space too easily. And goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky was good but not exceptional. Bizarrely, a franchise that mortgaged its future for the present at the trade deadline decided that a premature playoff exit justified hiring former Winnipeg Jets coach Paul Maurice.

Over the last three regular seasons, only the Detroit Red Wings had a worse high-danger chances percentage at 5-on-5 than Winnipeg. In expected goals percentage, the Jets were bottom five. But where they excelled during that three-year stretch is in goaltending. In team save percentage, they ranked just outside the top five. 

A big thanks goes to Connor Hellebuyck, who won the Vezina Trophy in 2020 and finished second in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 2021. Hellebuyck compensated for the Jets’ on-ice woes, and he manned the crease for 12 more games than any other goaltender in that three-year stretch. 

But a down year for Hellebuyck last season (by his standards) not coincidentally resulted in the Jets floundering and Maurice resigning. With Florida, Maurice will inherit Bobrovsky, who posted a strong GSAx last season, although he will be 34 years old in September. How much work he can handle without it affecting his numbers will be an interesting storyline to watch.

As the inimitable Travis Yost of TSN pointed out in a recent column, Maurice has a strikingly lacklustre win rate for a bench boss with 1,000 games coached in the NHL. The Panthers have been an elite team in the advanced stats in the past two seasons, but Maurice’s hallmark has been overseeing a Jets team that chases the puck and allows far too many quality chances.

The Panthers possess crucial attributes that characterized the Avalanche and Lightning’s Cup-bound teams. They have forward depth and speed. On defence, they have several puck-movers. But the Lightning and Avalanche demonstrated adaptability, a trait the Panthers lacked. 

When the Avalanche had their speed taken away through the neutral zone, they showcased an ability to win with their forecheck, cycle, and creation of chances off the counterattack. When the Lightning’s breakout up the boards was swallowed up by the Avalanche, they adjusted by utilizing the flip pass to exit the zone. A large reason the flip pass worked is that when the Avalanche attempted a re-entry, Tampa Bay tried to stand up at the blue line and gap up. Punting the puck out of the zone as a means to reset into a stingy defensive posture is a shrewd coaching adjustment. 

Under former coach Andrew Brunette, the Panthers didn’t check well enough and were poor at adjusting. (Their power play is the most conspicuous example of the latter.) But this year was also Brunette’s first foray into coaching at the NHL level, and with more experience, a coach can improve. Maurice, on the other hand, has an established track record of mediocrity. Sadly for the personnel, Maurice seems more likely to exacerbate the team’s problems than be the solution. 

Undervalued Bet: St. Louis Blues +2500
The St. Louis Blues’ Stanley Cup odds being +2500 is utterly head-scratching. It is worth stressing that the Blues and Avalanche were tied 1-1 after two games in the second playoff round until Colorado’s Nazem Kadri collided with St. Louis goaltender Jordan Binnington in Game 3, thereby vaulting Ville Husso into action. The Blues dismantled the Wild in the first round and went toe-to-toe with the Avs in the second round, which underscores that the Blues have one of the deepest and most skilled teams in the NHL. 

St. Louis had nine (!) forwards with 20 or more goals last season. One of them was David Perron, who is an UFA, but even if the Blues can’t re-sign him, their forward depth remains among the best in the league. The Blues have a comfortable fusion of veterans and youth, and there is a possibility that their young players, like Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, will get even better. 

The Blues have an underrated defensive group, made evident by the fact that their best defenceman, Torey Krug, was injured for the entire second round against Colorado, but St. Louis remained competitive. (The entire blue line was brutally banged up.) Even if trade deadline acquisition Nick Leddy walks in free agency, Krug, Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk compose a strong top three on the back end. 

So what gives? During the regular season, the Blues had below-average metrics in the advanced stats. They were poor in expected goals and high-danger chances, and at 5-on-5 they were badly outshot. But the Blues also don’t subscribe to the shot-volume approach. They are patient, bypassing shots from the off slot in the hopes of moving the puck into the slot. Their roster of puck carriers can protect the puck under duress and look for the passing lane to open up.

Admittedly, goaltending uncertainty hangs over the Blues. Ville Husso won the starting role during the past regular season, but Binnington grabbed the job back during the playoffs. During the regular season, Binnington was atrocious, but he played very well in the playoffs before his injury.

The bottom line is that a glut of skilled players can go a long way in terms of papering over goaltending concerns, as the Avalanche just demonstrated. Darcy Kuemper posted the worst GSAx of any goaltender during the playoffs, but Colorado won the Cup anyway. Goaltending obviously matters, but Colorado winning it all provides an important correction to the belief that you need a star netminder to take home the Cup. 

One of the final important lessons to be learned from this year’s Cup final teams is that the roster that starts the season can be burnished by a few late-season additions. The Blues are loaded at forward and defenceman, but a few key moves at the deadline would put them in position for a deep Cup run. The Avalanche are undisputed favourites in the West. But giving the Blues such long odds is insulting.  

Wait-and-See Bet: Vegas Golden Knights +1000
The Golden Knights are not being judged for missing the playoffs last season. That much is clear, as Vegas is currently +1000 to win the Stanley Cup, which is the second shortest odds of any team in the West. 

This measured attitude from the sportsbooks toward Vegas can be rationalized. Vegas’s season was marred by injuries, causing them to drop from being a top-three offence and defence in 2020-21 to outside the top ten in 2021-22. Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone both played less than 40 games and coach Peter DeBoer lost his job.

One of the most interesting questions of the offseason is whether Vegas can reassert itself as a powerhouse despite being in salary cap hell. Bruce Cassidy was hired as the new head coach, which promises that the Golden Knights will defend the slot like mongooses and do so out of a zone defence. There are also reports that UFA Reilly Smith is staying with Vegas, ensuring that the Golden Knights’ top-six forwards will be formidable. But the dire cap situation is also going to sap the Golden Knights of crucial depth. Thus, the impending roster reshuffling to get the books in order shows how important it is that Jack Eichel play at a superstar level this season.

The most important thing to know about Eichel’s 34 games with Vegas is that he got better over time. In both expected goals and points per hour at 5-on-5, Eichel saw marked improvement over his final 17 games. Moreover, he was positive on both the offensive and defensive ends. If Eichel can establish himself as a dominant No. 1 center again, Vegas will be potent.  

Any conversation about the Golden Knights also needs to revolve around the age of their nucleus. Pacioretty is 33 years old, albeit when he played, he was still a force. Putative No. 1 defenceman Alex Pietrangelo had a surprisingly poor season last year and he is 32. Jonathan Marchessault will turn 32 during the season and both Stone and Smith are 30 and 31, respectively. Starting goaltender Robin Lehner turns 31 this month, which is a little unsettling given his difficulty sometimes moving post to post. 

Obtaining Eichel injected youth into the core forwards, but this doesn’t override the fact that the Golden Knights are tied to a suite of players who are either ending their prime or past their prime.

This Golden Knights franchise has a lot of unknowns. As much as I like the coach and personnel, the cap situation, along with whether an aging team can maintain elite performance and stay healthy, has me wary. I don’t like the Golden Knights at +1000, but it is possible bettors could get a better number in a few weeks. On this one, sit tight.