Even with the postponements and fluidity of the NHL schedule, Saturday offers a packed itinerary.

On this week’s betting menu, the theme is redemption.

A 56-game season will tax all players and teams, but this week’s best bets look to endorse those that have recently stumbled.

Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators

Saturday, Feb. 6 – 1 PM ET

Human nature dictates a lacklustre effort – eventually. The Montreal Canadiens have been steamrolling their competition and posting ridiculous metrics. Therefore, when they submitted a flat effort against the lowly Ottawa Senators on Thursday night, opportunity barreled through the front door and announced its arrival. On Saturday afternoon, we can bet on a highly motivated Canadiens team to cover the puck line against the worst team in the NHL. Giddy up.

When Ottawa took a multi-goal lead on Thursday, it was able to clog the neutral zone and kneecap a Montreal team that has demolished its opponents on the rush. But if the Senators are going to pull the same trick twice, they will need the assistance of their special teams, because facing the Canadiens 5-on-5 is a mismatch.

The Canadiens have a top-five offence and defence in 5-on-5 expected goals per hour. Compounding the problem for the Senators, they have the third-worst expected goals against and sixth-worst high-danger chances against on a 60-minute basis. But here is the kicker: the Senators’ goals against is a gasp-worthy 4.55. Yes, goaltending is a flashpoint for Ottawa and a storyline for Saturday.

Ottawa goaltenders Matt Murray and Marcus Hogberg have been the very worst and fourth worst in GSAx (goals saved above expected) this season. Yet on Thursday, Murray outplayed the Canadiens’ Carey Price, who allowed two soft goals. Price and Jake Allen have basically been alternating starts, and Allen has been the better goaltender this season. Better play between the pipes for Montreal, along with a regression from Ottawa, seems foreordained.

The other storyline to keep an eye out for is the contributions of the Montreal forwards. On Thursday, the Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher and Tomas Tatar trio generated 15 shots at 5-on-5 and the sole goal. But it was for naught because the rest of the top nine was stymied. The Tyler Toffoli line and Nick Suzuki lines combined for only five shots at 5-on-5. Considering how porous the Senators’ defence is, low output seems unlikely to happen again. This is especially true for Toffoli, who leads the Canadiens in expected goals percentage and is currently the leading goal scorer in the NHL.

Generally, I am loath to pick the puck line, but I am not going to spend my Saturday steeped in regret and self-pity. Nor should you.

Pick: Montreal -1.5 (+115)

Arizona Coyotes at St. Louis Blues

Saturday, Feb. 6 – 3 PM ET

Just like that, we have a four-game series. In COVID-19 times, the NHL is switching around schedules and suddenly the Arizona Coyotes and St. Louis Blues are playing each other four straight times.

The Blues have had rough starts in their first two games against the Coyotes, being badly outplayed in some or all of the first period. In Thursday’s loss, Arizona proved unsparing throughout the full 20 minutes, racking up eight high-danger chances at 5-on-5 in the first period to St. Louis’s one. But with the postponement of its game against Colorado, St. Louis will get the chance to punch back. Because when the Blues are focused, they are deep, talented and versatile.

At 5-on-5, the Blues are first in the NHL in goals per 60 minutes. They receive offence from anywhere and everywhere: first-line forwards, depth forwards, defencemen. Jordan Kyrou went from being an occasional forward with the San Antonio Rampage last season to the points leader for the Blues.

The Avalanche have the better reputation, but the Blues are a hair better in scoring right now. The Blues didn’t score until they pulled their goaltender on Thursday, but they should be able to puncture the Coyotes’ coverage on Saturday.

Defence is the only real issue. St. Louis will need to tamp down Arizona’s young and dynamic offence, which currently ranks second in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The Blues have a mobile and deep defensive group on paper, but they were loose with the puck on Thursday, and their defensive coverage had a few head-scratching gaffes, giving Arizona a spate of quality shots.

At this moment, the Blues rank in the bottom 10 in goals against, partially due to a poor penalty kill, but also likely due to roster changes that have them looking more like a finesse team at times.

But the Blues’ coach is still Craig Berube. I expect fewer goals, fewer opportunities and more physicality in game three against the Coyotes. Mike Hoffman and Torey Krug add more agility to this squad, but on Saturday I think they will revert to a grinding, heavy forecheck. After the Blues ripped off four consecutive wins, I expect a more spirited effort from the get-go, which will hinder the Coyotes’ ability to get a foothold. At +106 to win in 60 minutes, I think the Blues provide value.

Pick: St. Louis Regulation Win +106

Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs

Saturday, Feb. 6 – 7 PM ET

Can a team have multiple nadirs? If so, how soon in the season? The Vancouver Canucks seem determined to answer that question after Thursday night’s 7-3 blitzing by the Toronto Maple Leafs, another humiliating episode in a potentially nightmarish season. This is why, the money line for Toronto on Saturday is an outrageous -190. To build up the case for the Canucks, allow me to crib a tactic from politics: Tear down the opposition!

Before last night, the Maple Leafs’ offence papered over the team’s flabby defence despite disturbing underlying numbers. At 5-on-5, Toronto was a bottom-seven team in the league in expected goals against. Only five other teams were allowing more high-danger chances per hour. Among goaltenders who have played nine or more games, only Mikko Koskinen has a worse GSAx than Toronto’s Frederik Andersen.

The power play has been a silver bullet for the Maple Leafs. Toronto is tied for the best power-play percentage in the league and has accrued 14 goals from the man advantage, which is also tied for first. True, the Canucks are one of the most penalized squads in the NHL, which makes the convergence of these two teams a potentially toxic mix.

However, Toronto actually has a worse net penalties per 60 minutes, albeit by a slim margin. And entering Thursday night, the Canucks have been showing incremental improvement in their discipline, limiting opponents to eight total power-play chances in their prior three games.

Issues of accountability bleed into the Vancouver’s 5-on-5 play. Yes, the Leafs’ power play is a concern for the Canucks, but so is play at even strength because Vancouver has been atrocious in every imaginable defensive metric. When the game against Toronto was still competitive, Auston Matthews and John Tavares scored two goals on the backdoor. The Canucks were exposed in their transition defence, as bad pinches and forsaken back pressure opened up cavernous seams for Toronto.

Still, as rudderless as Vancouver can look, there is talent on this squad. Last Saturday, Vancouver jumped out to an early lead, and proceeded to allow only one 5-on-5 high-danger chance to Winnipeg in the second and third periods. The Canucks were lively on the forecheck and slung the puck around on the cycle. Vancouver slowed the game and, in turn, the Canucks defencemen were able to keep tighter gaps on the Jets forwards.

That game can be the template: Vancouver exhibits more grounded decision-making when playing with the lead. The Canucks have strung together three straight duds and frustration is mounting. The belief that Vancouver will temporarily find normalcy, even if its season is tinged with fatalism, combined with my pessimism over the Leafs’ defence, makes me compelled to fade Toronto at the going price.

Pick: Vancouver +165