We have officially hit the weird part of the NHL season.

Check the scores any day of the week and at least one of the results will surprise you.

The postseason is more or less set in stone with the exception of a handful of teams in the West vying for a couple of spots, but the teams that ostensibly are eliminated have moments of friskiness.

No one is safe.

With seven games on the schedule, it’s a light Saturday.

But even with fewer games, there is still opportunity to be found.

Here are my best bets for Saturday’s games.

Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres

Saturday, February 19 – 1:00PM ET

This is the biggest mismatch of the weekend on paper. The tagline could be reduced to “the best playing one of the worst.”

The Buffalo Sabres have a convincing argument for being the least talented roster in the league, and they compensate by trying to avoid leaving themselves exposed.

Most NHL teams exhort their back end to be aggressive, but Buffalo’s defencemen stay rooted at their points and aren’t a threat to score in transition.

The Sabres’ lack of dynamism requires they overload on the puck in the defensive zone and then make short to intermediate passes up the ice.

Unsurprisingly, scoring is a struggle.

At 5-on-5, Buffalo is tied for the worst expected goals created and third worst in high-danger changes produced.

For the Sabres, nothing comes easy, so their attitude is playing with strength in numbers in all three zones.

Their opponent couldn’t be more different. The Colorado Avalanche are replete with skill at forward and defence, which gives them the latitude to get creative. They use a lot of misdirection to get opponents moving the wrong way. Colorado looks to employ flip passes to spring players for transition opportunities against plodding counterparts.

And the Avalanche have so much speed that they can push their adversary back on the rush and then pause and let the play develop. Pressing pause allows Colorado’s teammates to finish their routes, opening up a host of options. All of this is troubling for the Sabres, who struggle with their mobility against speedy teams. But in one area, how Buffalo plays will stack up well.

In the neutral zone, the Avs’ forechecking posture is to play man-on-man defence, and because of their speed they are very good at holding lines and forcing turnovers. When opponents try to make long passes, it can be a disaster because the Avalanche can press their man and force a takeaway. To avoid that, opponents need shorter passes and forwards moving back toward their defencemen. Opponents need to transition up the ice with more puck support. The Sabres check that box.

Still, I think this is a game the Avalanche win on the forecheck because Buffalo is hellbent on slowing down the rush. The Avalanche are one of the best teams in the NHL at creating chances on the cycle, and I see them eschewing the Sabres’ efforts to front the puck by using bank passes off the goal line boards to set up low-slot shots and by spreading the Sabres out by bringing the Avalanche forwards high.

For all their skill, the Avalanche are a terrifying puck line team because over the course of the season they have played down at their opponent’s level far too many times. But the Avalanche have a secret weapon lately, and that is their team defence.

Since the start of 2022, Avalanche goaltender Darcy Kuemper has the best Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). In the event Colorado starts Pavel Francouz, he has been stout as well. If Buffalo can’t score, which seems plausible, I think the Avalanche muster enough offence to win by two or more. I’ll take the puck line, please!

Pick: Avalanche -1.5 (-140)

Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators

February 19 – 7:00PM ET

Empty seats aren’t always disappointing. No doubt they were a relief for the Ottawa Senators last Saturday as there were only a handful of fans in attendance to be sour that the game went south so quickly against a Bruins team without Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand.

But that was then, and this is now. Yes, Bergeron is back in the lineup, a surefire bad thing with no silver linings for Ottawa. But the Bruins look awfully vulnerable of late, having lost four of their last five games. Thus far this week they have faced both New York teams, and each contest was illuminating.

The Bruins defend the slot extremely well. The numbers shout this with a megaphone. But on Tuesday night, the Rangers were extremely effective pressuring the Bruins’ defencemen below the top of the circles into turnovers. Once the Rangers gained possession, they played a version of keep-away to exhaust the Bruins. When Boston finally chucked the puck out of the zone, the Rangers regrouped and exploited a splintered Bruins’ squad desperate for a line change.

Furthermore, the Rangers used a bumper above the offensive blue line to help combat the Bruins’ strategy of holding the blue line and denying the entry. The Filip Chytil goal saw this ploy work to perfection.

The Bruins struggled again with their breakout against the Islanders. Boston’s defencemen struggled to evade the forechecking pressure, and the Islanders sometimes jumped the Bruins’ outlet pass. Against Ottawa, I think the Bruins will have their forwards sink lower in the defensive zone to help the flailing defensive group with its retrievals and first pass.

Against the Islanders, the Bruins put Taylor Hall with Bergeron and David Pastrnak, stacking the first line. The Bruins were able to create off the forecheck and find the F3 in the slot, and when the Boston defenceman pinched, it was impactful. But the Islanders still outshot Boston at 5-on-5.

I think the Bruins will pepper the Senators’ goaltender with shots and be more aggressive stretching out Ottawa’s man-on-man defence with creative offensive-zone set plays using their mobile defensive group. Even though the Bruins are on the road, we know they will use Bergeron as their safety net on defensive zone draws.

The Senators are missing Drake Batherson, Josh Norris and No. 1 defenceman Thomas Chabot. Forwards Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle are rising stars, but they don’t have the support around them to control play consistently. I expect most of this game to be spent with Ottawa attempting to exit its end. I am guessing it’s only because Marchand is suspended and Boston is on the road that this game’s moneyline is palatable, and I will seize on that.

Pick: Bruins -175

St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs

February 19 – 7:00PM ET

When the Pittsburgh Penguins are humming, they play a three-quarter-ice game. They want to keep the puck above the top of the circles in their own end and keep play down in the opposition’s end. When Pittsburgh faced Toronto on Thursday night, that goal wasn’t just thwarted—it was ripped to shreds. When the game was competitive, Toronto controlled the puck with a sticky forecheck and well-oiled cycle, forcing Pittsburgh into a lot of time chasing in the bottom half of the defensive zone.

This Saturday, the Maple Leafs will want to employ a similar strategy against the St. Louis Blues. The tactic is to try to force the Blues to make as many passes up ice as possible. Play a passive forecheck like Montreal did against St. Louis on the Pavel Buchnevich goal Thursday night, and the Blues will slice you up.

The Canadiens prevailed in that game, but the Blues don’t lose two games in a row a lot. It’s happened only once in 2022, and almost two weeks separated the two games. The time they dropped consecutive contests before that was at the beginning of December. The Blues have the fourth best points percentage in the West, which is a testament to their consistency. Nevertheless, I like the Maple Leafs here for a few reasons.

First, the Maple Leafs play at home like they have a cheat code. They boast an 18-4-1 record in their own arena, and the Blues have lost more games than they have won on the road. The Blues have a balanced top-nine forward group, but Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe will look to play the Auston Matthews and John Tavares lines against the Blues’ top two forward lines.

The most interesting group in this game is the Blues’ defencemen, and I think the contest will be decided by whether they sink or swim. The Blues lean on them for offence on the cycle with their shooting and pinches, but their forwards will also kick it back to them in the neutral zone for the delayed entry and four-man rush attack.

The Blues’ defencemen are also extremely aggressive stepping up at the blue line and in the neutral zone. But the Blues can be sluggish in their transition defence, and a counterattack can be capitalized on by slipping the puck to the second-wave trailer.

St. Louis has never started goaltender Ville Husso for four straight games this season. If the past predicts the present, that means Jordan Binnington will be between the pipes, which is a green light for bettors who want the Leafs. Binnington has ghastly Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) numbers, and Toronto could humiliate him.

Yes, that is right: The Maple Leafs may have a decisive goaltender advantage. This price is inflated for the Maple Leafs’ moneyline, but I refuse to fade Toronto at home.

Pick: Maple Leafs -175