Betting successfully requires a dispassionate heart and cool rationality. But as this writer and readers of this column spend the week watching games and checking lines, some bets and props materialize that are irresistible.

This weekend, we are betting against teams in a special tier of awfulness and doubling down on the world’s best goal scorer who is coming off two goalless games. The stars have aligned for three mouth-watering options this Saturday.  

Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators
Saturday, April 16 – 12:30 PM ET 
The Nashville Predators are perilously close to losing their foothold on a playoff wild-card spot. With the Las Vegas Golden Knights 7-2-1 in their last ten games, Nashville needs to keep winning to make it to the big dance in May. The margin for error being slim is the bad news. The good news is that Nashville’s opponent Saturday is the Chicago Blackhawks. 

How awful is Chicago? Since March 1st, only the Arizona Coyotes have a worse expected goals and high-danger chances percentage at 5-on-5. Moreover, Arizona’s only win without Jakob Chychrun and Clayton Keller came against Chicago. 

The Predators are coming off an ugly 4-0 loss against the Edmonton Oilers. The final score isn’t always indicative of the tale on the ice. This time it was. The Predators were bad in all three zones, and the Oilers succeeded at forcing their adversary into one-and-dones. 

I think against Chicago we see Nashville hew closer to the identity its coach, John Hynes, desires. I envision Nashville applying a physical forecheck and grinding the Blackhawks down with consistent retrievals. 

The Predators’ offensive cycle deftly marries power with finesse. Yes, Nashville attacks the middle of the ice by shooting into double-screens and trying to jam loose pucks off those shot attempts. But they also are crafty at using weak-side cuts off high rotations. Catch them on the right night and they will roll out a cheeky set play off an offensive zone faceoff. All of these tactics should have purchase against the Blackhawks, who defend like they are missing their skate blades. 

Compounding Chicago’s defensive coverage woes is its goaltending or lack thereof. With Marc-Andre Fleury shipped to Minnesota, the Predators will face either Kevin Lankinen, who has the second-worst Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in the NHL or Collin Delia, who has a poor GSAx on the season and a -2.21 GSAx in his last two appearances. Ouch!

The Predators’ game on Tuesday saw them eke out a 1-0 win in overtime over San Jose, even though they dominated that game and outshot the Fins 41-25. One piece of overlap between that game and Thursday’s loss to Edmonton is Nashville’s vulnerability in transition defence. 

The Predators receive good back-checking from their forwards, which is crucial. However, sometimes Nashville has an equal number of skaters back and will still allow an A-grade chance because the exorbitant back-checking players gravitate to the puck and don’t pick up an opposing player trailing or the forward who staggered his rush entry. On Leon Draisaitl’s second goal against Nashville Thursday, this exact scenario unfolded. In the San Jose contest, the opportunity was there, but competency was not.

The Predators like to match up the “Herd” Line against opponents’ top lines. Based on Thursday night, it is likely the Blackhawks will play Patrick Kane with Alex DeBrincat, so we know who the “Herd” will be attempting to shut down. Against San Jose, the Kane line scored two 5-on-5 goals, allowed zero, and generated eight shots. The rest of the forward lines allowed four goals and manufactured ten shots. If Nashville can stymie the Blackhawks’ top line, they should coast.

The Predators need to win if they want to make the playoffs. They have more forward and defensive depth, far better goaltending, and have been a very good home team. I will happily take the regulation line here.

Pick: Predators -165

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
Saturday, April 16 – 7:00 PM ET 
Pop Quiz: When was the last time Auston Matthews went three games without a goal? It was from January 19th to January 29th, when he went goalless for four games. Two other goalless stretches, spanning three games each, came at the start of the season and right before American Thanksgiving. Multiple games where Matthews fails to score are rare. That is problematic for Toronto’s opponent on Saturday, the Ottawa Senators. 

It is unusual for a superstar player of Matthews’ caliber to be as influential as he is in every role of the forecheck. Whether he is the F1, F2 or F3, Matthews understands how to wrest possession of the puck away from the opposition by using his strength, agility and anticipation. The outcome is that his line spends most of its shift in the offensive zone. Mitch Marner and Michael Bunting are excellent as complements to Matthews, but it is Matthews’ interchangeability, including grinding in the dirty areas, that makes the trio a buzzsaw on the forecheck.

Like George Costanza, the Senators are determined to try to end the season on a high note. They are 5-3 in their last eight games, and they are getting strong goaltending from Anton Forsberg. Yet, while April has been kind to Ottawa, this team is still getting outshot at 5-on-5 and is underwater in expected goals and high-danger chances. The Senators aren’t a pushover, but they also aren’t, like, good.

The Maple Leafs have the best power play in the league, but they have gone 0-15 in their last three games. Ottawa has a fine penalty kill, but it also commits a lot of penalties. Saturday is primed for Toronto to snap their bad juju on the power play, and I think Matthews could be a beneficiary. 

The Maurice Richard Trophy for the league’s leading goalscorer is not locked up yet. Draisaitl notched four goals in his last two games and is four away from tying Matthews. After recording a combined seven shots in his last two games, I think Matthews comes out firing against Ottawa and beats Forsberg at least once.  

Pick: Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer -135

Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames
Saturday, April 16 – 10:00 PM ET 
It’s been a forgettable week for the Calgary Flames. On Tuesday night, they trailed the Seattle Kraken 3-1 entering the third period, and at 5-on-5 they were being outshot and out-chanced. Flames coach Darryl Sutter took umbrage with the goaltending, pulling Jacob Markstrom and starting Dan Vladar in the third period. The Flames rallied in the final frame and pulled out a 5-3 victory, but it was a lacklustre performance.

On Thursday night, Calgary got blitzed by the Vegas Golden Knights, losing 6-1. The Flames’ only goal came on the power play. Once again, Markstrom was pulled. Starting in the Seattle game and continuing into the Golden Knights game, Sutter did the unthinkable – he temporarily split up the Johnny Gaudreau line. 

The common thread between the two games was Calgary’s defensive group wilting against the opposition’s forecheck. The Flames struggled on their breakouts and, when hemmed in their own end, their opponents found cracks in their defensive coverage. 

The Flames struggled to sort out their defensive coverage in the middle slot when the puck went behind the goal line. Seattle was aggressive using its defenceman to parachute into the slot and Calgary’s wings struggled to contain them. In both games, the Flames were less dynamic on the rush, and both the Golden Knights and Kraken were able to strike off the counterattack. 

Blip or not, Calgary has strung together two poor performances in a row, which doesn’t sound like an endorsement to pick them on a puck line. But context is everything, and their Saturday opponent is the Arizona Coyotes.

It has reached the point with the Coyotes where I’m wondering if they are staging “living-pain” art and the public hasn’t been notified. Since Jakob Chychrun and Clayton Keller have been removed from the lineup due to injury, Arizona is 1-6. In those six losses, the Coyotes were outscored 34-6! And their only win was against the Blackhawks.

While the Canucks have tortured the Coyotes by shredding their penalty kill, other opponents have done most of their damage at 5-on-5. In their 1-6 stretch, the Coyotes have been outscored at 5-on-5 by 20 goals. Goaltending hasn’t been a salve either. Since April 1st, only New Jersey Devils goaltender Andrew Hammond has been worse in terms of GSAx than the incumbent No. 1, Arizona’s Karel Vejmelka. 

The Coyotes likely belong in their own category for futility. A cranky Flames team at home should produce a victory of several goals. To make the price work, I will take the puck line.

Pick: Flames -190