Everyone has worked at a place where it’s an open secret that certain people aren’t good at their job. At best, it’s a source of amusement. Normally, it’s a nuisance.

Betting is that rare arena where you can wager on lack of aptitude. I’m delighted to live in an era when I can profit off NHL players who are in bad situations or flat-out bad.  

New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings 
Saturday, November 5 – 1:00PM ET 
Moritz Seider won the Calder Trophy last season by posting seven goals and 43 assists in his first year in the NHL. But then something transformative happened. The Detroit Red Wings fired coach Jeff Blashill and hired Derek Lalonde. 

In terms of how Seider is used, things haven’t changed dramatically. Seider still faces the toughest opposing lines and is used for most defensive-zone draws. But unlike last season, Seider is much less of a rover. Instead of looking like a young playmaking rearguard with Erik Karlsson-like dynamism, Seider, under Lalonde, has turned into a putative shutdown blueliner resembling Adam Pelech. The fig leaf Lalonde is now offering is that Seider gets first power-play-unit minutes.

It’s a bold strategy, and the results have been mixed at best. Seider has zero goals and two assists through ten games and his advanced stats are understandably mediocre given his difficult utilization. The Red Wings have a -2-goal differential and are 5-3-2. While Seider had an assist called back on Thursday night due to goaltending interference, his best opportunities to post points stem from the Red Wings’ power play, which ranks 20th in the league. 

Seider doesn’t have a blistering shot and that understandably shifts the gravity of the power play. A lot of Detroit’s play on the man advantage centers around trying to make seam passes to set up the shot off the flank or get the puck down low for a backdoor slam or tip. The Islanders have the third best penalty kill in the NHL, so hitting paydirt against them will be a challenge.

The rationale for fading Andrew Copp and Filip Hronek is less complicated. A huge factor is that neither plays on the first power-play unit. Copp is leaned on to take defensive zone faceoffs, which isn’t conducive to racking up points for a non-superstar player. 

Furthermore, until recently, Copp played on a line with Dominik Kubalik and David Perron, both capable offensive players. Lalonde split that trio up after the Wings got blasted by Buffalo, and Copp’s new linemates are Elmer Soderblom and Adam Erne, both depth players. On the surface, the new linemates seem to have worked. Copp vacuumed up two points on Thursday night against the Capitals. But context is needed.

On Copp’s goal, he happened to briefly share ice time with Dylan Larkin, who proved to be the engine on the goal-scoring sequence. Copp’s assist came when Washington had an empty net. With Copp buried on defensive zone draws and playing with energy players, I’m bearish on his chances of getting on the scoresheet against New York.

Hronek has six assists on the season and zero goals. Since he has collected a point in a half dozen of ten games, taking Hronek under 0.5 points would appear to carry risk. But his situation has changed. Three of those six points came on the power play, as Hronek started the season as the first-unit defenceman anchoring the man advantage. Now that he is on the second unit, he gets scant time on the man advantage. At 5-on-5, his perfunctory pinches seem less threatening. 

The Islanders rank third in the NHL in goals against. The Red Wings are a poor advanced stats team that won’t overwhelm New York with extensive offensive zone time. I think goals will be a struggle for Detroit and love this triumvirate to be held pointless.

Picks: Moritz Seider U 0.5 points -154, Andrew Copp U 0.5 points -134, Filip Hronek U 0.5 points -152

Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens
Saturday, November 5 – 7:00PM ET
The Canadiens’ offensive problems are well documented. They mostly can’t score on the rush. They have two players on their team who can create offence and they play on the same line. Montreal is saddled with the toxic combo of struggling to manufacture quality chances while surrendering too many quality chances. This makes the chance to bet on the failure of their bottom-nine forwards all the more tasty.

Christian Dvorak may not be the worst top-nine forward in the NHL but he is certainly in the running. He has registered points in two of eleven games this season. He isn’t good on the rush or forecheck. Even on defence, his warts are conspicuous. 

Against Winnipeg on Thursday night, Dvorak was on the ice for the next shift after the Habs took a 2-1 lead. When the puck entered Montreal’s end, Dvorak lost his man in defensive coverage, which led to a prime Jets scoring chance. Right after the puck left the zone, Dvorak gave a few lifeless and unsuccessful pokes at Cole Perfetti to purportedly thwart the re-entry. Seconds later, Blake Wheeler buried his third goal of the year. Echoing the iconic line from the Bobs in Office Space, one wonders what exactly does Dvorak do to earn playing time? 

Sean Monahan is friskier. He is Montreal’s third-line pivot, playing the net front presence on the first power-play unit. Monahan plants himself in the slot and wishes the puck will come in his direction so he can tip it or shoot it. This logic seems doomed to crumble when Monahan faces a Vegas Golden Knights team that defends the slot without mercy under new head coach Bruce Cassidy. 

The Golden Knights are a top-five team in high-danger chances and expected goals against per 60 minutes and rank first in goals against and fewest penalties taken per hour. I struggle to envision Monahan and wings Jonathan Drouin and Joel Armia imposing their will on Vegas.

Picks: Christian Dvorak U 0.5 points -164, Sean Monahan U 0.5 points -128

Anaheim Ducks at San Jose Sharks
Saturday, November 5 – 10:30PM ET
These two squads played on Tuesday in one of the wackiest games I’ve seen this season. It was fun for what it featured and also for what it lacked. One thing it featured was an own goal from distance from Jakob Silfverberg, which surprised everyone in the arena and perhaps Anaheim goaltender Anthony Stolarz most of all. One thing it lacked was sustained defence. 

The Sharks waved the Ducks into the slot like a tollbooth attendant. Gaps were as loose as a first dress suit. When Anaheim got below the goal line, the middle of the ice opened up, offering Ducks puck-carriers an array of options. When Anaheim got the puck in the neutral zone, San Jose backpedaled. Despite all this, Cam Fowler failed to collect a point for Anaheim. 

The Ducks had been the worst offensive team in the NHL until recently, but in their last three games they have notched four, six, and five goals respectively. Remarkably, Fowler has been held pointless during that stretch. In fact, he has one assist this season and that was against the New Jersey Devils on October 18.

I don’t think the game plan for San Jose is a mystery. The Sharks are going to try to slow things down. They will want to get in on the forecheck and force the Ducks’ defencemen to pass under pressure. Fowler at one point had the skating to elude forecheckers, but those days are a distant memory. 

Compare Fowler and fellow Anaheim Ducks defensive partner Simon Benoit in the stats and it’s hard to find much of a gap. Fowler has an individual expected goals of .5. while Benoit is at .43 (in four less games). Fowler has two high-danger chances. Benoit has one. Fowler has double the shots and shot attempts but nothing to show for it. Fowler plays more and has more name recognition, and I suppose there is a chance he stumbles on a point one of these games. 

The Ducks had a five-game stretch this season where they failed to score over two goals. They are one of the NHL’s worst in the advanced stats. I am dubious of the Ducks’ recent scoring barrage. I am eager to avoid fading the sensational Trevor Zegras and his linemates, along with the players who comprise the Ducks’ first power-play unit. The Sharks are bad, but I think they do enough defensively to keep Fowler from picking up a point.

Pick: Cam Fowler U 0.5 points -192