When the lines for the matchups were released, four series (hello Florida, Colorado, Calgary, and Edmonton) were too pricey right off the bat from a pick-a-series standpoint. Unless you grab the underdog for one of these, you are better-served betting games individually. Therefore, I focused on the series that are competitively priced.

Enjoy!

St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild
If you want to know which will be the most entertaining series in the first round, tune into this matchup. Not much separates these two teams, and I expect every game to offer dazzling skill and savage physicality. I also believe multiple contests will go past regulation time. Both teams have top offences, and a crucial part of their success hinges on what happens in the middle of the ice.

The neutral zone is a scary place when playing the Wild. Minnesota gaps up extremely well, and by shrinking passing and skating lanes, the Wild produce turnovers that unleash a formidable counterattack.

But St. Louis will not be accommodating. The Blues are patient with the puck and protect it well. They are lethal off the rush, and even if Minnesota takes away space on the entry, the Blues can place the puck in areas of the offensive zone that allow them to retain possession. How Minnesota fares in its own-zone retrievals will be pivotal, because the Blues are crafty in the offensive zone when provided opportunity. Nevertheless, statistically speaking, the Wild have been elite since the All-Star Break in terms of puck management.

We live in an era of shot volume, which makes the Blues unusual. They will bypass shots from the perimeter in an effort to move the puck into the home-plate area. The Wild play man-on-man defence, and when the Blues fling the puck around, the Wild need to be quick on their switches. If the Blues can short-circuit the Wild’s reads on their defensive assignments, they will manufacture shots in the slot.

The Wild are banged up, which is concerning, but the sheer breadth of talent and depth on this roster makes it hard for me to pick against them. Their shutdown line, comprised of Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway, and hopefully Marcus Foligno, is the best in the league, outscoring adversaries 25-5 at 5-on-5. 

The Wild’s Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala lines should be able to strike off the rush and on the cycle. I think both trios will manipulate the Blues when they try to front pucks. Look for Minnesota’s forwards to slip beneath the opposing shot-blocker for a shot-pass to the backdoor or to whack at a bank pass off the back boards. 

Both teams come in super hot, but the Wild’s numbers are hard to compete with. Since March 1st, Minnesota has a +30 goal differential at 5-on-5, best in the NHL, and in expected goals and high-danger chances, it is top three. The Blues have an amazing power play, so if the Wild can avoid playing a man down, I think they win this series at 5-on-5.

The big unknown is goaltending. While Blues goaltender Ville Husso was stellar this season, he has a substandard Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in ten games in April. Marc-Andre Fleury, last season’s Vezina Trophy winner and Minnesota’s big trade-deadline acquisition, was even worse than Husso this past month, and by a noteworthy margin. 

Will Fleury’s bad play continue or was he just settling into his new team? Will Husso recapture the magic from earlier this season? Goaltending feels like the black box in this series.

I think the Blues got unlucky with this matchup. While I see it going seven games, I think the Wild will win by the skin of their teeth. 

Pick: Wild to win the series -148

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs
It’s an uncomfortable position. I would love nothing more than to shout through a bullhorn that the Toronto Maple Leafs’ opening-round slump will cease this postseason. All the bad juju will evaporate and the schadenfreude that the internet revels in when the Maple Leafs stumble will temporarily pause once they finally rid the monkey from their franchise’s back. 

This will happen, but maybe not till next year. The Lightning have a decisive goaltending advantage, and I think Tampa Bay laid out a winning blueprint in their 8-1 victory over Toronto on April 21st. 

When the Maple Leafs have the puck in their own zone, the mandate is unmistakable: move it north. The preference is a long pass to rapidly move the puck toward the other goal, and certainly the last choice is surely making a defenceman-to-defenceman pass below the goal line. The Lightning masterfully eliminated Toronto’s outlets at the point and things snowballed from there.

The Lightning’s blowout victory was a triumph of their forecheck, and the neutral-zone support was there from the Bolts’ forwards when their defencemen held the line. Eventually, the Maple Leafs were forced to ask their forwards to sink lower in the defensive zone so they could shorten the passes and come underneath the Lightning defencemen. 

The upshot was a lot of offensive zone time for Tampa Bay. Not only did the Lightning destroy the Maple Leafs, but they created among the highest chances off the cycle of any team in the NHL this season.

The Maple Leafs can look like gangbusters when they are on the attack, but savvy opponents can pick them apart in Toronto’s own zone. The Lightning exposed the Maple Leafs’ defencemen in the low slot, winning inside position for tips and tap-in goals. On the rush, Tampa Bay also seized space by using the stretch pass and by capitalizing on a Toronto defensive group that aggressively pinches but can struggle to recover, leading to odd-man rush chances. 

One important caveat is that the Maple Leafs were missing Auston Matthews in that April 21st game. Not only is Matthews the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy, but he is probably the game’s best 200-foot player right now.

When Matthews is on the ice, his line is dominant, and he is so good he can likely break the Lightning’s heavy forecheck. But even if Matthews crushes the Lightning’s opposing line, will that sufficiently compensate for the mediocre output from the Leafs’ other three lines? It is a heavy burden to carry. The ingredients to a Leafs’ victory seem to be Matthews propelling the offence, goaltender Jack Campbell playing Andrei Vasilevskiy to a draw, and the Lightning committing numerous penalties, activating the Leafs’ league-leading power play. 

While the Lightning’s rogue behavior is a major concern for me, the Campbell piece seems unlikely. Campbell had a -1.52 GSAx in the month of April, which actually was an improvement after a horrendous first three months of the year. The stat that is hard for me to ignore is that Vasilevskiy has been a top-ten goaltender among starters over the past four months, while Campbell ranks dead last in 2022. Look at the numbers for Erik Kallgren or Petr Mrazek and it seems clear that the Maple Leafs don’t have a better option.

The Lightning have been an infuriating team to bet on this regular season as there have been more games than I can count where they seemed unfocused and indifferent. But the acquisitions made at the trade deadline really shored up their top-nine forwards, and if Tampa Bay receives a strong effort from Vasilevskiy and Campbell struggles, I think Toronto might be lucky to force this series to six. Getting the Lightning as the underdog, when they still have one of the NHL’s most talented rosters and are relatively healthy, is a gift. 

Pick: Lightning to win the series +100

Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers
The New York Rangers are the only team with home-ice advantage in their first-round series that was priced as an underdog by some sportsbooks on Saturday morning. The rationale for skepticism about New York is a mix of several factors. The Rangers’ 5-on-5 advanced stats are poor, and they defied expectations by continuing to collect victories with peerless goaltending, power-play brilliance, and Chris Kreider’s lightning-in-a-bottle year. What looked unsustainable did, in fact, sustain for 82 games.

But one important thing to consider with the Rangers is that they have been a different team since March 15th. They were active at the trade deadline, most notably acquiring Frank Vatrano and Andrew Copp, who have bolstered a top-heavy forward group. The Rangers’ numbers at 5-on-5 have dramatically improved over a fairly large sample size. 

In expected goals and high-danger chances, New York has seen a four and five percent improvement since mid-March, which is significant. In shots per 60 minutes, the Rangers went from third worst in the NHL to eighth best. Most importantly, I think they match up well against Pittsburgh.

For the Penguins to beat the Rangers, I anticipate them looking to grind out victories, principally to neutralize the Rangers’ potency off the rush. But for this to happen, the Penguins’ defencemen need to be able to pinch and create turnovers on the Rangers’ breakout. 

Pittsburgh’s defencemen are more than happy to take an aggressive posture holding the blue line; the problem is that they receive very spotty back pressure from their forwards. If the Rangers can chip the puck past Pittsburgh’s defencemen who are without forward support, they will create odd-man rushes. Most troubling is that, even when the Penguins receive help from their forwards in transition defence, they do a poor job sorting out their assignments. The Penguins are consistently guilty of failing to pick up the trailer, and the Rangers are skilled at finding the open man when given space.

While the Rangers are lauded for their rush offence, they also are a threat on the forecheck and cycle, and their defencemen interchange with their forwards to open up seams. The Rangers like to have their forwards come to the point to stretch out the opposing defence, and then they run picks for playmakers like Artemi Panarin. In its own zone, Pittsburgh can get very focused on taking away passing and shooting lanes, which opens up plays to the backdoor and weak side because Pittsburgh is guarding areas and not players. All of this spells trouble for the Penguins, for whom quick retrievals and clean breakouts will be paramount. 

Igor Shesterkin’s GSAx each month has ranged from very good to excellent throughout the season. There was a period of time where Shesterkin was in the Hart Trophy conversation and it wasn’t far-fetched. He has been the NHL’s best goaltender this season by a landslide, a seeming lock for the Vezina.

Casey DeSmith, Pittsburgh’s backup goalie, will likely be in the other net. DeSmith had a very strong April, but his numbers for the season are poor. It seems very plausible that the Rangers will receive far superior goaltending in this series.

Postseason success is driven by matchup luck more than people like to acknowledge. I think the Rangers drew a favorable first-round opponent.

Pick: Rangers to win the series -115