It’s never too late to rewrite your story. After committing an unfortunate penalty in overtime of Game 2, right wing Reilly Smith amended his narrative, spearheading an offensive explosion for his line that led to four consecutive wins for the Vegas Golden Knights. Similarly, the Montreal Canadiens went 7-9-2 in the last month of the regular season, and on May 26th were facing elimination, trailing the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1. Now they are one of the four teams left.

To put it kindly, the Canadiens are not viewed as equals to the Golden Knights. The moneyline for Vegas is so high it will eat into any vacation cost squirreled away for your post-pandemic trip should they lose. Is Vegas that good or is Montreal being underestimated, again? Allow me to be your trusty guide for a tour through the nuances of the matchup.

Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights
Monday, June 14 – 9PM ET

By the semi-finals, novelty is dead. Instead, game plans are stitched together using material previously used, like a patchwork quilt. The Minnesota Wild pushed the Golden Knights to seven, but the caveat is that Max Pacioretty was absent from the Vegas lineup for the first six games. Pacioretty was back and imposing as the Golden Knights vanquished the Colorado Avalanche, and the Canadiens will surely be surveying that series to construct their game plan.

Against Vegas, the Avalanche manufactured opportunities when they had their defencemen activating on the rush, sometimes assuming the role of playmaker. Good news, indeed, as Montreal did that with aplomb against the Winnipeg Jets. Colorado used shots from a distance and sharp angles to create rebound opportunities in front of the net. Check that box, as Montreal inflicted that on Winnipeg as well. When the Golden Knights shut down the neutral zone, the Avs utilized area passes to harness their forwards’ speed in open ice and gain a foothold in the offensive zone. Yes, the Canadiens preyed on Winnipeg with that tactic, too.

And yet, the Golden Knights finished the series outshooting the Avalanche at 5-on-5 and accruing vastly better expected goals and high-danger chances. Vegas’s staggering metrics against Colorado, the playoff favourite to win the Stanley Cup, begins with elite puck management.

For the Canadiens to challenge the Golden Knights, they are going to need to steward the puck with impeccable care. Colorado was felled by a confluence of factors, one of which was ill-timed turnovers. Misfire on a pass on the rush? Vegas will quickly ferry the puck the other way and deposit it in the back of the net. (Gabriel Landeskog was a victim of this in Game 5.)

The Golden Knights’ forecheck squeezes their adversaries’ breakout into submission as turnovers snowball and soon the goal horn blares. (Poor Samuel Girard nods glumly.) Even something as mundane as a line change can be used by Vegas as a weapon. Freddy Krueger comes for his victims in their dreams. Vegas takes its kill-shot when its opponents are changing lines.

But one thing Montreal has that Colorado didn’t have is an unassailably great shutdown line. One would assume Montreal coach Dominique Ducharme will be falling over himself trying to match the Phillip Danault line against one of the top-six Vegas lines. It will be harder to get matchups in Vegas since they don’t have last change, but Danault’s line has been masterful at squashing top scorers from the North Division. To wit, in 106:48 at 5-on-5, Danault and Brendan Gallagher have allowed zero goals (!) and tallied two. They have more shots and are better in expected goals and high-danger chances. Potentially disarming one of Vegas’s dynamic forward trios is nothing to sneeze at.

How do you make a giant look mortal? During the second round, the Golden Knights’ defence was so effective at swallowing up the mighty Avalanche that they held them to 8.73 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. For a reference point, that clip is slightly above what the Detroit Red Wings posted during the regular season. If you spent even a few minutes watching Detroit this year, you are aghast.

The Golden Knights’ defence is so good it allows them flexibility that is not usually afforded other teams. They can have their forwards flee the offensive zone on breakouts and rely on their defencemen to find them in the neutral zone. During the regular season, the Golden Knights were very conscientious about using direct passes to exit their own zone. Against Colorado, they chipped it past the defencemen to create foot races for their forwards and it worked.

Hockey polymaths, the Golden Knights are proficient at everything, uniquely capable at adapting to their environment. But that also understates how they shape their milieu. The Golden Knights practise strategies to protect the puck and keep opponents hemmed in their own end in the second period so they are stranded during the period of the long change. Or they will turn the tables on their enemy, like on forward Mark Stone’s game-winner from Game 5. At a moment when the Golden Knights seemed like they were on their heels, they turned a blocked shot into a breakaway.

Goaltending has been a catalyst for the Canadiens’ unexpected postseason run, but even that does not seem like much of an advantage against Vegas. Both Carey Price and Marc-Andre Fleury saw their Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) dip a little after luminescent performances in the first round.

Can Montreal gin up quality chances, or even get shots through to test Fleury? Vegas coach Peter DeBoer uses the Mark Stone triumvirate as his shutdown line, so how the Tyler Toffoli line fares against Selke Trophy finalist Stone and his two nettlesome buddies will be a subplot during the games being played in Vegas.

Is the Canadiens’ only path to victory via playing with a lead and winning low-scoring games? Can they win if they trail early in the contest? The Avalanche passed up some great looks against Vegas by trying to make the cross-seam pass or find a shooter in the slot. It is doubtful the Canadiens will make that error. They will fire pucks from everywhere. They are going to look to attack from behind the net and off the goal line. They are going to attempt to clog the neutral zone and demand their forwards provide unceasing backpressure so the defencemen can kneecap speed in the middle of the ice.

Unfortunately, the Golden Knights can win the grind game where they are digging pucks out of the corners. Moreover, Vegas’s forecheck is so ferocious that opponents collapse the slot. That overload below the circles allows the Golden Knights’ defencemen to creep to the circles or walk around wingers when they rush the point. Even if Danault silences the Karlsson line, the speed and depth of the Golden Knights are too overpowering.

I think this series is headed for a sweep, or Vegas wins in five. As of this writing, I am seeing tasty +375 odds for a Golden Knights sweep, and +275 for a 4-1 Vegas triumph. Get the brooms. I’ll take the value.

Pick: Vegas to win in four +375

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