Opinions in hockey are always changing.

That is the benefit of more games and more data points.

I’ve selected three teams to spotlight because they present interesting wagering possibilities going forward.

Most Overvalued: New York Rangers

Like makeup, superstars can improve a team’s appearance while hiding its blemishes. The New York Rangers personify this truth.

Everything has been coming up roses for the Blueshirts thus far. New York has five games in hand on the Carolina Hurricanes and is tied for the Metropolitan Division lead. There will not be a race for the wild-card spots in the East, meaning the Rangers have essentially cemented a postseason berth. On their roster are viable candidates for the Vezina Trophy, Maurice Richard Trophy and Norris Trophy, and their longest losing streak on the season is three.

The Rangers have also stayed extremely healthy. When looking at their leaders in points, the most games missed among the top seven in scoring is five by Artemi Panarin. Hardship has been foreign to the Broadway gang. 

I think the fall is coming. One person who I believe will have a more modest second-half performance is Chris Kreider. Right now, he is on pace for an unfathomable 57 goals. To put into context how incredible that pace is: Alex Ovechkin, the greatest goal scorer of the 21st century, has only bested that total once. Through 47 games, Kreider already has eclipsed his personal best by five goals! His shooting percentage is an otherworldly 22.4.

Kreider isn’t the only one who has been rubbing the rabbit’s foot. Barclay Goodrow has 10 goals, and his 16.1 shooting percentage is double what it normally is, which is in the 8s. The Rangers clearly cherish Goodrow’s skill set, but regression from him, and Kreider, seem inevitable.

The Rangers have the feel of a Michael Bay action movie. A few cool sequences, but long stretches that are messy and incoherent. The Rangers spend a disturbing amount of time in their own end, as only the Arizona Coyotes have a worse shot-attempts percentage at 5-on-5 when the score is within one. In expected goals and high-danger chances, New York ranks in the bottom five and bottom 10, respectively. Opponents are spending time in the Rangers’ end and generating quality chances. So how is the Rangers’ record not worse?

The answer is goaltender Igor Shesterkin, who has been incredible this season. He leads the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) and Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA). When the Rangers turn over the puck on their breakout, or keep a poor gap, they have Shesterkin between the pipes to cover up their mistakes.

And the most astonishing thing is that Shesterkin’s greatness seems to be contagious. In backup goalie Alexander Georgiev’s last 13 appearances, he too has been awesome. This is especially shocking because from October to the start of December, Georgiev was a vulnerability.

Every month, Shesterkin has been great. But while he is clearly a superlative talent, this will be his first full season in the NHL. Including his time in the KHL, he has never played more than 39 games in a season. I have concerns that if his play dips, and regression stings the Rangers, their foibles in their own end and their sloppy neutral zone work will lead to a rash of losses.

The Rangers are going to make the playoffs and their nucleus gives them a chance to make a run. But for the rest of the regular season, I think they’re a good bet to fade.

Most Undervalued: Calgary Flames

The way goals are registered is by shooting. More shots increase the chances of goals being collected and a team winning. Therefore, shot volume leads to success. Enter the Calgary Flames.

The Flames and the Florida Panthers are the only two teams in the NHL averaging 36 shots per game. Stylistically, there are important differences between the two teams. While the Panthers are the toast of the betting community for consistently hitting the Over and a nearly unbeatable streak at home, Calgary possesses a subtle advantage over them. When peeking at the 5-on-5 numbers, the Flames emerge as the more balanced team.

With Florida, a ferocious offence carries a so-so defence in expected goals and high-danger chances. In contrast, the Flames rank better in high-danger chances allowed than high-danger chances produced. In expected goals, offensively and defensively, they rank in the top 10.

An interesting portion of the Flames’ calendar comes after the All-Star Break. For the next two months, Calgary will play 21 of its next 26 games at home. Calgary is 7-4-4 in its own arena this season, but the underlying numbers signal this team is primed to go on a big run at home.

In their own barn, the Flames’ expected goals percentage and high-danger chances percentages are 62.70 and 62.75, respectively. The teams with the second-best percentage are at 58.88 and 59. Ergo, the Flames are dominating play in their own rink more than any other team at home, and by a substantial margin. And here’s the kicker: They are averaging 10 more shots per game at home per 60 minutes than the next highest team. 

Okay, so what gives with the lacklustre home record for the Flames thus far? Their shooting percentage has been wretched, at 6.38 per cent. On the road, that number is 8.33 per cent. I expect this number to rise at home over the next two months and the Flames to rip off a bunch of wins in the Scotiabank Saddledome in the near future.

Of course, if you’ve bet on the Flames recently and lost, you may have been a victim of Calgary’s iffy goaltending. Dear reader, I can relate. From the start of the season to Dec. 1, Jacob Markstrom ranked barely outside the top in the NHL in GSAx. Since that date, he has been somewhere between bad and a liability.

But there is hope. In Markstrom’s last eight appearances, he has a respectable GSAx, suggesting he may be emerging from whatever dark place he was trapped in. I think Calgary is going to get scorching hot. And bettors stand to capitalize.

Most Puzzling: St. Louis Blues

Watching the St. Louis Blues is a reminder that there are puck management problems and there are puck management problems. For the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs of the world, puck management struggles are a gnawing concern, a nettlesome issue that could potentially hinder the team from reaching its full potential. And then there are the Blues, whose puck management woes act as a debilitating force to their ambitions.

Surrender the puck on breakouts and in the neutral zone with frequency and it will show up in the numbers. Only one team in the NHL has a worse high-danger chances percentage at 5-on-5 and that is the Columbus Blue Jackets. Even when the score is within one goal, the Blues are chasing the puck to an alarming degree, with their adversary accumulating shot attempts and quality looks.

And yet, the Blues have a +32 goal differential and the fourth-best points percentage in the West. They use the stretch pass and picks to create space. On offensive zone faceoffs, they are effective at exposing opponents’ overload and deftly find the defenceman on the weak side. Scan their roster, and it is brimming with talent at forward, defenceman, and goaltender.

Some of the team’s shortcomings are perplexing. The Blues’ defencemen can be guilty of neglecting to challenge opposing entries when their forwards provide back pressure. In their own end, forwards will lose their assignment, leading to slot opportunities for adversaries. As much trouble as the team has in its own end, it is important to highlight that the Blues’ underlying offensive numbers at 5-on-5 are poor as well.

Wait, then how do the Blues rank sixth in goals per game? First, their shooting percentage at 5-on-5 is in the top five in the NHL. But the teams that are ranked slightly above them in shooting percentage (Carolina, Colorado, Florida) all collect four-to-eight shots more per 60 minutes. Furthermore, St. Louis’s power play has been excellent, ranking second in the NHL behind Toronto.

Even goaltending has defied expectations. In 17 games last season, backup goaltender Ville Husso had a GSAx of -6.41, which is ugly. Expectations were modest for Husso heading into the 2021-22 campaign. But this season, Husso has been superb, posting a 17.9 in 15 games. Meanwhile, incumbent starter Jordan Binnington finished last season with a 3.3 GSAx, but has seen that number plummet to -7.5 GSAx in 2022. Does Husso continue to sparkle? Will Binnington improve in the second half? I have no idea.

With the Blues, the best- and worst-case scenarios seem plausible. The Blues could be frauds and post-All-Star Break they fizzle out and miss the postseason. Or maybe the Blues clean up their breakout and gaps and have the Colorado Avalanche fighting them tooth and nail in the second round of the playoffs.

Betting-wise, the best play moving forward is probably fading as many Binnington starts as possible until he returns to credible form. Especially when the Blues are at home, opponents should get a pretty good price.