It was a career-defining moment when Raffaella Reggi defeated Vicki Nelson-Dunbar in the finals of the 1985 Italian Open. It was her first career WTA singles victory, and she was the first Italian woman to win the tournament in more than 30 years. Had the people of Italy known the streak that would follow, they might have celebrated just a little bit harder. 

No Italian woman has claimed a singles title in Italy since Reggi’s victory, and the streak is even longer in the men’s bracket. Adriano Panatta was the last Italian man to win the tournament, way back in 1976. 

While Rome has seen dozens of men's singles champions from a plethora of different countries, there hasn’t even been an Italian finalist there since Panatta’s loss to Bjorn Borg in 1978.

Much like the French Open, it is the Spanish who have dominated this tournament in recent history. Well, one Spaniard in particular. Rafael Nadal has won the tournament nine times since 2005, with only Novak Djokovic and his five titles posing a consistent challenge. In all likelihood, this year will be no different. Like most others in the clay-court season, this is Nadal or Djokovic’s tournament to lose. 

However, the unexpected happens all the time in tennis, and this year in the men’s bracket we are seeing perhaps the most legitimate Italian threat since Panatta. 

That threat goes by the name of Matteo Berrettini.

Now a household name around the tennis world, Berrettini is currently the 10th-ranked men’s singles player on tour, and at 25-years-old he is only getting better.

Berrettini is playing incredible tennis right now, and should anything go wrong with the two-headed monster of Nadal and Djokovic, he could be a serious contender to win the tournament. 

After being forced to retire with an abdominal injury in the fourth round of the Australian Open, Berrettini elected to take some time off to recover and pour his focus into the upcoming clay-court season. 

The time off served him well. In just his second singles tournament back, Berrettini won the Serbian Open in Belgrade, dropping just two sets on his path to victory. Then just two weeks later he reached the first Masters 1000 final of his career in Madrid. 

Berrettini appears to be returning to the peak form we saw in 2019 when he reached the semifinals of the US Open. That year also saw him claim the second and third ATP tour victories of his career. This all culminated in him reaching a career-high singles ranking of eighth. 

The Italian Open holds great meaning for Berrettini beyond just being a home court affair. He made his ATP main draw debut there in 2017, where he got to face fellow countryman Fabio Fognini for the first time in his career. He also earned his first-ever top-5 victory there in 2019, when he defeated reigning finalist and former champion Alexander Zverev in the third round. His deepest performance in Rome was just last year when he made it all the way to the quarterfinals before losing to Casper Ruud.

Berrettini has made his homeland proud once already this year with a tremendous performance at the ATP Cup. With straight-set victories over Gael Monfils, Dominic Thiem, and Roberto Bautista-Agut, Berrettini pushed Italy all the way to the finals for the first time in the nation's history.

The logical next step forward in his career is a Masters 1000 victory, and that’s precisely the opportunity he has this week in Rome. 

While the betting favourite in Rome is rightfully Nadal (+150), there are a few things to consider before calling the race. We are just over two weeks away from the start of the French Open, and as everyone knows, Nadal has a very special relationship with that tournament. He is the greatest tennis player in the tournament's history, and at the end of his career, it is his dominance there that will define his legacy. 

While the Italian Open is still an important tournament to him, Nadal won’t be taking any risks that could hamper his physical state this close to Roland Garros.

Djokovic (+333), on the other hand, dropped out of Madrid last week for personal reasons and has not reached a tournament final since his victory at the Australian Open.

Nadal and Djokovic falling early in the tournament is of course a long shot, but not impossible. Nadal is fresh off a straight-sets loss to Zverev in the quarterfinals in Madrid, and Djokovic’s most recent outing ended in a loss to Aslan Karatsev in the semifinals of the Serbian Open. 

Karatsev then went on to lose to none other than Berrettini in the final.

If things do open up in Rome this week, Berrettini could be the best pick of the remaining class to win the tournament.

With Berrettini returning to peak form at a tournament that has meant so much to him throughout his career, and his outright odds sitting at (+3300), he could be a great value bet to take a flyer on winning outright.

Beyond just betting a tournament winner, Berrettini’s matches through the early stages could also prove very enticing from a gambling perspective. With the way the bracket is arranged, Berrettini will not have to meet either Djokovic or Nadal prior to the quarter-finals. So I’m picking Berrettini on the moneyline versus any opponent he faces through the first three rounds. I would also recommend taking Berrettini to beat Nikoloz Basilashvili in straight-sets (-133) in his first-round match.

Berrettini, playing in front of a home crowd in Italy, in search of his first-ever Masters 1000 victory. These are the types of stories that seem too good to come true. Until they do.