Jan 10, 2021
Examining Sunday's action for Super Wild Card Weekend
TSN takes a look at the betting perspective of Sunday's three wild card matchups, starting with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens battling Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans at 1 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT on TSN1/4/5, TSN Direct and the TSN App.
TSN.ca Staff
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Can you believe it? The NFL season has come and gone.
It feels like just yesterday we were sitting down and looking at which futures we liked the best, who was going to win the divisions, MVP, Comeback Player of the Year and all that fun stuff.
It also feels like just yesterday that TSN’s Domenic Padula reached out and asked me to join the team with TSN Edge and I want to take this moment to thank everyone for joining me throughout the season as I previewed Thursday Night Football each week.
It’s been quite an incredible journey, both on and off the field.
But the best is yet to come so let’s dive into this week’s playoff action.
Today, we’ll be taking a look at the three games slated for Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
REMEMBER ME?
A team that is fourth in points for, second in total yards and has a running back that rushed for 2,000 yards and played in the conference championship game last year is flying under the radar going into the playoffs.
That’s right, after making a magical run to the AFC Championship game last season, the Tennessee Titans have followed that up by going 11-5, winning the AFC South this season and being an underdog ahead of hosting the Baltimore Ravens.
Ryan Tannehill has shown the league that last year wasn’t a fluke as you find his name amongst the league leaders in quarterback rating and QBR, and we haven’t even talked about his running back yet.
Derrick Henry looks poised to take over in the playoffs once again.
The 26-year-old ended the season on fire, becoming the first player since Adrian Peterson in 2012 to break the 2,000-yard mark.
Henry’s 2,027 rushing yards made him the eighth person in NFL history to surpass 2,000 rushing yards in a season, and he did it thanks in a huge end to the season.
Since Week 14, Henry has rushed for 710 yards on 107 carries, good enough for 6.64 yards per attempt and he’s found the end zone five times in those four games.
The running back has gone for at least 100 yards in six of his last eight games, and has gone over 170 yards three times in that span.
If this all sounds familiar it’s because it should.
Henry flipped a switch this time last season, ending the season with 896 rushing yards over his final six games of the season, eclipsing 100 yards in five of those six games.
The Florida native carried that momentum into the playoffs and rushed for 377 yards and a touchdown in the Titans’ opening two playoff games in 2019.
But, despite the high-powered offence, this Titans team is plagued by a defence that will give up a lot of big plays, points and yards.
Tennessee ranked in the bottom third of the league in both points-for and yards, something this Ravens offence is sure to take advantage of.
GETTING HOT AT THE RIGHT TIME
It’s been a weird season for the Baltimore Ravens.
After starting the season 5-1, the team had a wake-up call five weeks later when they found themselves 6-5 and well out of the AFC North division race.
But since then, it’s been all Ravens all the time.
Through 12 weeks of the season, it appeared the league had caught up with Lamar Jackson and this Ravens running game, but it appears they were wrong.
Jackson and his offence have bounced back, averaging 37.2 points per game and ending the season on a five-game winning streak.
We are just one season removed from this team going 14-2 and having the inside track to playing in the Super Bowl.
But the playoffs haven’t been kind to Jackson and company.
This Ravens team just feels like all they have to do is win one playoff game to get the monkey off their back, and if that happens watch out.
Vegas sees it as well.
The Ravens and the Buccaneers are the only two road teams favoured this week, and Baltimore has the third-shortest odds to represent the AFC in this year’s Super Bowl, behind the Chiefs and Bills.
While I’m not sure this is the season we finally see Baltimore get over the hump and win a playoff game, I am positive that this offence will be effective on Sunday.
The Ravens will be able to take advantage of this Titans defence that was awful against the pass all season, and mediocre at stopping the run.
I think we see the Ravens put up points and Tennessee has the firepower to keep up.
The over was 12-3-1 in Titans’ games this season, I’ll ride with that.
Pick: Over 54.5
Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints -10
BEAR DOWN
We have seen the good and bad side of the expanded NFL playoffs this season.
On the AFC side, we see the 11-5 Indianapolis Colts make the playoffs as the final wild-card team, when they would’ve missed any other season.
But on the NFC side, this No. 7 seed isn’t as accomplished.
The 8-8 Chicago Bears limp into the playoffs on the heels of a 35-16 loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Chicago, however, got help down the stretch as the Arizona Cardinals imploded, losing five of their last seven games and opening the door for the Bears to grab the No. 7 seed.
Chicago has been … como se dice, average at best this season.
Seven of their wins came against teams that finished the season with a losing record, and they went 1-6 against teams that made the playoffs.
In those seven games, the Bears went 2-5 against the spread, but it’s worth mentioning that they played well enough to take the Saints to overtime in Week 8, losing 26-23.
The Bears will need a lot from running back David Montgomery in this game.
The 23-year-old has been solid down the stretch as the Bears beat up on back run defences and non-playoff teams to make their push.
But Montgomery will be taking on a Saints rush defence that is among the best in the league and has only had one game all season where they let a player rush for more than 100 yards.
OH WHEN THE SAINTS…
Saints fans!
Are you ready to get hurt again?
The playoffs haven’t been kind to the Saints or their supporters in recent seasons.
Between the two losses to the Vikings in 2017 and 2019 and that blown pass interference call in 2018, it’s hard to look at the Saints -10 and run to the counter to lay the number.
It’s been 11 years since New Orleans won the Super Bowl. And since then, they have won just four playoff games.
Only one of those wins (Detroit, 2011) have been by more than one score.
The Saints have been great this season after starting the year 1-2. They won 11 of their final 13 games, with the only loss coming against a Jalen Hurts-led Eagles team and Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs.
A big problem for the Bears will be limiting Alvin Kamara, both on the ground and in the passing game.
The last time we saw Kamara he rushed for a career-high 155 yards, added three catches for 17 yards, and oh, yeah, six touchdowns.
Could have been seven, too, but head coach Sean Peyton decided to give Taysom Hill a direct snap on the one-yard line in the fourth quarter. Way to go, Sean.
I find myself stuck between a rock and hard place with this game.
I can’t bring myself to back the Bears and I’ve seen the kind of pain these Saints put their fans (and bettors) through every playoffs.
I’m going to plug my nose and take the under.
I think Chicago knows the only way they can win this game is to muck it up - they won’t win a track race against this team.
Brees has been good since coming back from injury, but the teams he faced, the Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers, are nothing special on defence and this Bears team should come to play.
Pick: Under 47.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -6
The final game of the weekend is an interesting one as we get yet another divisional matchup with the Steelers hosting the Browns.
For Pittsburgh, we have to wonder which team is going to show up.
If it’s the team that started 11-0, then they will roll, but if it’s the team that is 1-4 in their last five games, then this depleted Browns team can compete.
The Steelers offence has completely stalled down the stretch and a lot of that can be attributed to the run game.
Pittsburgh rushed for just 1,351 yards this season, ranking dead last in the league.
Since Week 7, the Steelers have rushed for 667 yards in 11 games, a whopping 60.63 yards per game.
The lack of a run game this season has led to Ben Roethlisberger taking on a bigger role than normal in this offence.
Despite sitting out Week 17, Roethlisberger attempted the second-highest number of passes in his career this season.
He was one of three quarterbacks to attempt 600 passes this season and his 399 completions rank third in the league.
Since that same Week 7 mark, Roethlisberger has averaged 44.3 passes per game.
He enters this game with an over / under of 40.5 attempts.
Not completions, attempts.
That means every touch pass and halfback screen gets us one step closer to the over.
Dawg Pound
Oh, Cleveland.
Poor Cleveland.
This organization has waited so long for this moment, and COVID-19 has shown up to ruin the party.
The Browns will be without head coach Kevin Stefanski this week as they look to win their first playoff game since 1995.
Along with Stefanski, the Browns have seven players and five coaches, who are unable to be around the team due to COVID-19 protocols.
Special teams co-ordinator Mike Priefer will handle head coaching duties with offensive co-ordinator Alex Van Pelt replacing Stefanski to call plays.
So what does Cleveland do now?
Well, it all started on Thursday when they had their first team practice of the week.
Aside from that, they need their big players to step up in their head coach’s absence.
Baker Mayfield will be under centre on Sunday, with Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb and Jarvis Landry at his disposal.
When these teams met earlier in the season, the Browns were without Chubb and the offence suffered.
Mayfield struggled, going 10-for-18 for 119 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions – with one of them being taken back for a touchdown – while Hunt had just 40 yards on 13 carries.
These teams met just a few days ago in Week 17 as the Browns gutted out a win against the Steelers who played most of their backups.
But this Browns offence looks much better late in the season than when these teams first met.
The Browns have one of the top rushing games in the league, and they need to lean on it a lot this week to get past Pittsburgh.
Mayfield has shown over the years that he is capable of making plays when needed, but if they ask him to do too much against this Steelers defence, mistakes will happen.
This game opened with the Steelers as a field goal favourite. That number then spiked over the week and now sees them as nearly a touchdown favourite.
The Steelers went 7-1 straight up this season as a favourite of six or more points, but covered in just four of those games.
Their lone loss as a big favourite this season came on Week 15 as a 14.5-point favourite over the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Browns were an underdog just five times this season, going 2-3 straight up and against the number.
Call me crazy, but I think the Browns find a way to keep it close.
Maybe it says more about how little I think of this Steelers team – who got a few favourable pass interference calls against the Colts in Week 16 to end their losing skid.
I just don’t see them running away with this game.
Pick: Browns +6