Last year, we learned that anything could happen over the course of 60 games. Take a pair of long-shot Most Valuable Player Award winners, for example.

National League MVP Award winner Freddie Freeman came into the season ranked 13th in betting odds at +2500. Jose Abreu, the American League winner, was behind Marcus Semien, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Gary Sanchez – who finished the year hitting .147 – with odds north of +5000.

But both players caught fire early and stayed hot over a condensed 60-game schedule and earned the first MVP nods of their respective careers.

With a full schedule back, will we see more long shots take home the hardware or will this year’s winners be a little more predictable? With Opening Day just around the corner, here is a snapshot of how the MVP picture looks in each league.

 

American League

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The Favourite

Mike Trout +200

Usually, there are a handful of players oddsmakers consider as favourites for things like MVP Awards heading into a season.

This year, there’s one.

According to William Hill Sportsbooks, Mike Trout is far and away the favourite for the American League MVP. Would anyone be surprised if he wins it for the fourth time?

Trout actually finished above Abreu in on-base percentage, OPS and +OPS in 2020 en route to finishing fifth in voting. And get this: It was the lowest he’s finished since his rookie season in 2011. He won it in 2019 and came second the year before, averaging 42 home runs, 92 RBI and a 1.086 OPS over those two seasons.

At 29, Trout is still in the prime of his career and has plenty of support in a Los Angeles Angels lineup featuring Anthony Rendon, David Fletcher and Shohei Ohtani, who is expected to see more at-bats in 2021 than either of his previous two pitcher-hitter seasons.

Durability, which can factor strongly into an MVP discussion, might be his only drawback. The eight-time All-Star has missed a total of 105 games over the past four seasons after sitting out just 16 from 2013 to 2016. But that hasn’t really stopped him from getting votes. If he stays healthy and plays anything at all like he has the past decade, Trout should be front and centre in the MVP discussion yet again.

A Few Contenders

Alex Bregman +1100
Aaron Judge +1200

It’s hard to believe the runner-up in AL MVP odds is all the way back at +1100, but that may be a testament to just how good Trout is.

Last season was a bit of a down year for Alex Bregman and the Houston Astros, who didn’t have to deal with much in the way of public animosity for the sign-stealing scandal that dominated headlines two off-seasons ago. Bregman hit a career-low .246 in his age-26 season and saw his walk rate plummet after leading the league in free passes in 2019. Many think the Astros will bounce back from a 29-31 season and Bregman could be a big part of that.

For Aaron Judge, his production has never been the concern. After a 155-game rookie season, the 28-year-old has missed a total of 132 contests over the past three seasons, including 32 last year. Judge has missed time with a fractured wrist, oblique strain, rib fracture and calf strain over that span. If he stays healthy, there are encouraging trends. While he only played 28 games in 2020, the 6-foot-7 slugger lowered his strikeout rate by over three percentage points and bumped his home run rate to 7.9 per cent. It was the highest of his career, even higher than his remarkable 2017 season when he knocked 52 out of the ballpark. If he can stay healthy, who knows what his ceiling is.

A Few Long Shots

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +3000
Shohei Ohtani +3000

Listed above are a couple of interesting names at +3000.

Toronto Blue Jays fans would be thrilled if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ends up in the conversation because it means he will have ascended to the level many were hoping he’d get to when he first came up. Through his first two seasons, Guerrero hasn’t been bad by any means, but hasn’t quite produced at the elite level he was forecasted to.

Guerrero came on strong in the second half of the season and finished with the 12th best average exit velocity according to Statcast. As TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips explains, Guerrero’s key to success going forward could be getting the ball in the air more as 54.6 per cent of his batted balls were grounders. Still without a full major league season under his belt, watch out if Vladdy figures out how to hit the ball in the air more.

Shohei Ohtani is looking to bounce back from a pretty disappointing 2020. The two-way sensation made just two starts and threw a total of 1.2 innings before a flexor strain ended his season on the rubber. At the plate, he wasn’t much better. Ohtani hit .190 with little power as a full-time designated hitter.

But the 26-year-old was back on the mound this spring and looked outstanding, regularly hitting triple digits on the radar gun. Everything with Ohtani is a bit of a question mark including his valuation as there’s never really been a two-way player in the MVP discussion. The thought of what he could be is exciting. Let’s hope it clicks for the game’s most unique talent.

 

National League

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The Favourites

Cody Bellinger +850
Mookie Betts +850
Juan Soto +850

Unlike the AL, there isn’t clear front-runner in the National League MVP race.

Teammates Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts top the list at +850 along with Washington Nationals phenom Juan Soto.

The league MVP in 2019, Bellinger’s follow-up season was a bit underwhelming with a .239 batting average and 30 RBI in 56 games. We know he’s better than that. The year before, Bellinger hit 47 homers and had a 1.035 OPS. Two seasons before he was rookie of the year. Bellinger is proven, in the prime of his career and hits in an extraordinarily deep lineup.

The exact same is true for Betts. In his first season in L.A., the 2018 AL MVP showed why the Dodgers paid a premium price to acquire him and then dished out a $365 million contract. Betts finished second in MVP voting and took home his fifth straight Gold Glove Award. If he was to win the award with the Dodgers, he’d join Frank Robinson as the only players ever to win MVP in both leagues.

And then there’s Soto, who may have had the most impressive season of any hitter. If it wasn’t for him missing the first chunk of 2020 after testing positive for COVID-19 and the Nationals struggling to a fourth-place finish, Soto may well have been deemed the NL’s most valuable. He led the league in – deep breath – batting average (.351), on-base percentage (.490), slugging percentage (.690), OPS (1.185) and OPS+ (212). At just 21, Soto became the youngest NL batting champ ever and his OBP, OPS and slugging percentage were the highest since Barry Bonds’ totals from 2004 – widely considered the greatest statistical offensive season ever.

A Few Contenders

Fernando Tatis Jr. +900
Ronald Acuna Jr. +1000
Freddie Freeman +1200

Next up are a pair of the game’s most exciting young stars in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuna Jr. and there’s quite a few similarities between the two. They’re each in their early 20s, each earned gigantic contracts long before they were even arbitration eligible and each include an element in their game that’s been lost across baseball in recent years – speed. In addition to their eye-popping numbers at the plate, Acuna and Tatis aren’t afraid to steal bases. Acuna’s 37 led the league in 2019 and Tatis’ 11 swipes in 2020 placed him fifth last year.

Both the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres are supposed to win a bundle of games this year. Don’t be surprised if either flashy youngster is the driving force behind their team’s success.

And don’t be surprised either if Freeman picks up right where he left off a season ago. While 2020 may have been his magnum opus, the 6-foot-5 first baseman has been as consistent as anyone the past several seasons. From 2016 to 2019, Freeman averaged 149 games played, 31 homers, 95 RBI, hit .303 and had an OBP nearly 100 points higher.

He also managed to slash his strikeout rate more than four percentage points and bump his walk rate nearly five, which is becoming increasingly more valuable in the ‘three true outcomes’ era. Freeman hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down yet and, at 31, that may still be a couple seasons away.

A Few Long Shots

Bryce Harper +2000
Jacob deGrom +4000

There’s a couple fun long shots out there, starting with Bryce Harper.

By no means has Harper been a disappointment from a statistical perspective since signing his 13-year megadeal with the Philadelphia Phillies. He hit 35 home runs and drove in 114 his first season and followed that up with a league-leading 49 walks and .962 OPS while playing in all but three games. The only major issue for Harper has been the play of his team.

When owner John Middleton said in 2018 the team had some money and may be a “little bit stupid” with it just before signing Harper, he probably didn’t envision a continuation of Philadelphia’s playoff drought. But not only have the Phillies missed the playoffs every year since 2011, they haven’t even had a winning season. If the Phils hit their stride and Harper continues hitting baseballs a long way, maybe he could add a second trophy to his 2015 MVP Award.

At +4000 is New York Mets righty Jacob deGrom and using the word dominant to describe him would probably be an understatement. After back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019, deGrom finished third in 2020, even though his season was pretty much as good as the other two. In 68.0 innings spread out over 12 starts, deGrom struck out an absurd 104 hitters while keeping his ERA at a miniscule 2.38 and his WHIP (0.96) under 1.00 for the third consecutive season.

While he’s almost a sure thing to be in contention for the Cy Young once again, pitchers winning an MVP Award is rare. In fact, it’s so rare that it’s only happened once this millennium when Justin Verlander took home AL honours in 2011. Prior to that, the last pitcher to win was Dennis Eckersley in 1992.

Tough task for deGrom? Absolutely. Impossible? Maybe not.