Week 6 on the NFL schedule wraps up on Monday Night Football as the Broncos visit the Chargers.

Denver has been one of the biggest disappointments of the early season, as they look nothing like the Super Bowl contender many experts predicted.

Russell Wilson hasn’t taken the offence to the next level, and you could argue the team was much more efficient last year without him.

The Broncos enter play losers of back-to-back games, while LA is fresh off two straight victories.

The line for this game opened at Chargers -5.5, but has since been bet down a full point.

Teams: Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Chargers -4.5
Total: 45.5
*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook


Is Russ Cooked?

Denver is averaging a measly 15 points per game, and have scored a league-low six touchdowns. By comparison, Wilson’s former team in Seattle is averaging nine more points per game than the Broncos with Geno Smith under centre.

Denver is perhaps due for some positive touchdown regression as they’ve converted only 21% of their red zone trips into TD’s. Considering the league average is over 50%, we should expect more points in the Broncos future.

As for Russ, he grades out as the 33rd best quarterback so far per Pro Football Focus. He’s completing a career-worst 59.4% of his passes and has already taken 16 sacks.

He’s fresh off his lowest graded performance of the season versus Indy, but there is reason to believe he can exceed his passing expectations tonight.

The Chargers pass rush has been significantly downgraded with the loss of Joey Bosa, and the majority of Wilson’s struggles have come when under pressure this season.

Wilson’s passing yards over/under is set at just 232.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, and that’s a number he should easily exceed if he’s afforded time to operate in the pocket.  

Go Chargers Go 

As for LA, their 3-2 record is underwhelming but injuries have been partially to blame. In addition to the loss of Bosa, the team is also without number one wideout Keenan Allen.

To make matters worse, Justin Herbert is playing through a serious rib injury he suffered in Week 2, but that hasn’t stopped him from throwing at an extremely high rate.

Herbert is averaging 40 pass attempts per game, and ranks top-five in yards and touchdowns. 

Pass defence has been a strength of the Broncos all season, in large part thanks to shut down corner Patrick Surtain III, and the league’s number three graded pass rush.

Excellent corner play and a strong pass rush should open up the door for more Austin Ekeler usage tonight, whether that’s on the ground, or through the quick passing game.

After not scoring for the first three weeks of the season, Ekeler has five touchdowns over the past two games, three on the ground and two through the air.

Best Bets

Ekeler’s anytime TD odds at FanDuel Sportsbook currently sit at -135, the shortest of any player on the board. I still think there’s value at that number since Ekeler is such a versatile offensive option.

Not only is he going to see 12-16 carries, but he also projects for over five receptions. He currently leads all running backs in receptions, receiving yards and forced missed tackles.

Let’s target Ekeler to score on Monday Night Football, and Wilson to exceed 232.5 passing yards, a number he’s eclipsed three times in five starts despite a serious lack of efficiency.

Picks: Russell Wilson Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-113), Austin Ekeler Anytime TD (-135)