Week 12 in the NFL concludes on Monday Night Football live on TSN as the Seattle Seahawks visit Washington.

At 3-7, the Seahawks are off to their worst start in the Pete Carroll era. They’ve dropped back-to-back games, and five of their past six overall.

On the other hand, Washington has played its best football of the season. They’re fresh off back-to-back victories, and are now within striking distance of a playoff spot in the NFC.

Seattle actually opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but that line didn’t last long. Sharp money came flooding in on Washington, pushing the point spread all the way to Washington -1.

 

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team

Line: Washington -1

Total: 47

 

Washington Turning the Corner

The most surprising thing about Washington’s recent success is that it came after injuries to two of its premier pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

Without the duo, Washington was basically written off, but the rest of Ron Rivera’s defence has risen to the occasion.

The Football Team held Tom Brady and the reigning champs to 19 points two weeks ago, and a season low 253 total yards. Washington followed up that result last week in Carolina, pulling off a second straight upset.

 

They held Cam Newton and Co. to just 21 points and 297 total yards. Carolina converted just 2-of-9 third down opportunities, and Washington’s play on third down has been a big key to its recent success.

After allowing a 60 per cent conversion rate on third down through the first four weeks of the season, Washington has yielded just a 31 per cent conversion rate over the past two games.

Offensively, Taylor Heinicke is coming off the highest passer rating of his career versus the Panthers (141.9), after throwing three TD passes and leading the Football team to 27 points.

Washington’s run game has also looked much better since its Week 9 bye, as Antonio Gibson finally looks healthy. The sophomore RB was clearly bothered by an injury through the first eight weeks, but has ripped off 159 yards and two TD in his past two outings.

Seattle Continues to Waste Russell Wilson’s Talent

Meanwhile, the Seahawks aren’t doing themselves any favours on offence. Despite having Russell Wilson under centre, arguably a top-10 QB in the league, Seattle insists on wanting to run the ball with a stable of castoff RB’s.

Last time out versus Arizona, in a game the Seahawks desperately needed to win, they dropped Wilson back just 23 times. For comparison, the Buccaneers who rank number one on offence per DVOA, allow Brady to throw an average of 43.2 times per contest regardless of game script.

 

Seattle’s obsession with running the ball would be acceptable if they had a superstar RB, or if they lacked playmakers at wide receiver.

However, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett form one of the best 1-2 wide receiver tandems in the NFL, while starting running back Chris Carson, who’s not an elite talent to begin with, is out for the season.

To make matters even more frustrating, the Seahawks are not even a strong rushing team. They rank 23rd in run blocking per Pro Football Focus, 19th in adjusted line yards, and average a measly 98.4 rushing yards per contest.

Yet after every loss, the first thing Carroll tells the media is how the team needs to run the ball more.

Best Bet

Not surprisingly, Seattle’s archaic approach to play calling has produced plenty of slow paced, low-scoring games. The Seahawks rank last in the NFL in plays per game, and have scored more than 20 points only once in their past six outings.

As for the Seattle defence, they’ve actually been one of the lone bright spots for the team. They’ve yielded 23 points or less in five straight games, while three of their past five opponents have failed to clear 17 points.

The matchup versus the Washington offence is by no means intimidating, as despite their strong performance recently, the Football Team ranks 21st in points per game.

Everything points to this game failing to live up to offensive expectations and there are a few key trends to back that notion.

The under is 8-1-1 in Seattle 10 contests this season, and 13-2 in Wilson’s last 15 regular season starts.

Pick: Under 47

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