After getting slaughtered on each of the past two NFL Sundays, the public bounced back in Week 14. Each of the three most heavily bet teams against the spread (Lions, Bengals, Jets) all covered, as did two of the three most heavily bet overs (Vikings-Lions, Texans-Cowboys).

Tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Patriots and Cardinals isn’t seeing the same type of one-sided action as the teams just mentioned, although some bigger bettors are taking a stand.

Teams: New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals

Line: Patriots -1.5

Total: 43.5

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

New England is drawing 58% of the spread money as 1.5-point favorites on just 48% of the ATS tickets.

The Patriots can take over the final playoff spot in the AFC with a victory, and given their final three games of the season, tonight’s contest is a must win.

Patriots vs Cardinals Betting Analysis

After their date with Arizona, New England will face Las Vegas in Week 15, before closing with a daunting three-game stretch against the Bengals, Dolphins and Bills.

The Pats hav dropped back-to-back games, averaging just 18 points per outing in the process.

New England’s offence has been their weak link all season, although there should be optimism that they can perform well against the Cardinals.

Arizona has virtually been eliminated from playoff contention, and enters play ranked 27th per DVOA on defence, and 25th against the pass. That should set Mac Jones up for success, who’s just one game removed from a career-high 380 yard passing performance.

The Cardinals rank dead last defending the tight end position, bringing Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop into focus - more on that later.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots bring DVOA’s third ranked defence into play. New England has been exceptional against the pass, ranking third per DVOA, and stout against running backs allowing the fifth fewest rushing yards to enemy RB’s.

If there’s a weak link it’s versus rushing quarterbacks like Kyler Murray. The Pats have been torched on the ground in recent weeks by Josh Allen and Justin Fields, and earlier this season by Lamar Jackson.

Murray has posted pedestrian pass numbers this season, clearing 222 yards only once in his past five starts, but has produced with his legs. Murray has rushed for 116 yards over his last two outings, making the over on his rushing yards prop look appealing.

The Cardinals offence as a whole has underwhelmed again under alleged offensive guru Kliff Kingsbury this season, ranking 29th per DVOA and 17th in points per game.

Patriots vs Cardinals Trends and Best Bets

As far as the trends go, you can make an argument for both sides against the spread. New England is 7-3-1 ATS following a loss since the start of 2021, including 3-1-1 this season.

Bill Belichick led teams are 62-34-1 against the spread after a defeat over his coaching career, although keep in mind he had Tom Brady playing quarterback for most of those contests.

Arizona meanwhile, is 11-4 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, and 2-1 as a home underdog in 2022.

Back to Henry now, the Cardinals have allowed an average of 73 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this year, and an an 83% reception rate, which are both league-highs. They’ve also coughed up 9 TD to tight ends, the most in the NFL.

Murray may be set-up for success on the ground, but consider fading James Conner. His rushing yards prop sits at 59.5, a number he’s failed to eclipse in seven of nine games.

Best Bets: Patriots -1.5, Hunter Henry Over 30.5 rushing yards (-113), Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+340), Kyler Murray Over 34.5 rushing yards (-113), James Conner Under 59.5 rushing yards (-113)