It was a truly brutal Sunday in Week 12 for the NFL betting public. Each of the top-three most heavily bet teams in terms of ticket count (Ravens, Bucs and Titans) all failed to cover the spread.

In addition, each of the three teams that drew the most money against the spread (Seahawks, Bears, and Bucs) also failed to cover.

Total wise, each of the three most heavily bet overs didn’t cash (CIN-TEN, LAR-KC, ATL-WAS), and neither did the three heaviest bet unders (BAL-JAC, TB-CLE, CHI-NYJ).

The question now becomes will the betting public’s pain continue on Monday Night Football when the Steelers face the Colts?

Teams: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts

Line: Colts -2.5

Total: 39.5

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Indianapolis is currently a 2.5-point favorite, in a contest that features a tiny total of 39.5.

Few teams are more public than Pittsburgh, and the Steelers are drawing 70% of the spread wagers ahead of this matchup.

Note, this line hasn’t budged for most of the week in spite of the lopsided ticket count, which suggests online sportsbooks aren’t afraid of continuing to take Pittsburgh money.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Analysis

And quite frankly, why should they be. The Steelers enter play having lost three of four overall, and four consecutive road games.

Defence is typically Pittsburgh’s calling card, but this year the unit has massively underachieved. They enter play on Monday ranked 27th in yards allowed and 24th in scoring defence.

While it’s true they were forced to play without star pass rusher T.J. Watt for a large portion of their schedule, they haven’t set the world on fire since his return.

Last week against the Bengals, Pittsburgh was torched for 37 points and 408 yards. It marked the third time this season they’ve surrendered 35+ points, and the second in their past three games.

Offensively, first round pick Kenny Pickett is definitely a work in progress. He’s posted only one touchdown pass in his last three starts, and has thrown five more interceptions (8) than TD’s (3) this season.

Pittsburgh has won only one of the six games Pickett has started and finished, while the rookie ranks 31st in passer rating per Pro Football Focus among qualified candidates.

With Pickett underwhelming, the Steelers have gotten a boost from their ground game in recent weeks. Najee Harris has run for 189 yards total over his past two games with two touchdowns, however it should be noted those performances came against the 16th (Bengals) and 20th (Saints) ranked run defences per DVOA.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Analysis

Production in the run game should be very tough to come by for Pittsburgh on MNF. Indianapolis ranks sixth in rush defence DVOA, and just held the Eagles running backs to 57 yards on 17 carries.

The Colts are fresh off a heartbreaking loss to the NFC leading Eagles in the dying seconds, but have looked much better since Jeff Saturday took over coaching duties.

They’ve covered in back-to-back games, and have gotten back to pounding the rock relentlessly. Last year’s rushing champ Jonathan Taylor has run for 231 yards and two scores in his past two games, and looks like he did last year after sitting out a couple of contests.

Saturday also brought back Matt Ryan as the team’s starter, which has been a welcome sight for Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts number one receiver has seen 16 targets from Ryan over the past two games, hauling in 13 catches for 128 yards.

Ryan was abysmal in the majority of his first seven starts in Indy, but after sitting down for two games, it’s clear the team has a much better chance to win with him than with Sam Ehlinger.

In two games with Ehlinger under center this month, the Colts averaged only 9 points per outing.

Best Bets

Indianapolis hasn’t beaten Pittsburgh since 2008, when Peyton Manning was playing QB and Saturday was his center.

The betting public doesn’t expect that streak to be broken on Monday, but that alone shouldn’t persuade you to bet Pittsburgh.

The Colts’ front seven is extremely underrated and will not allow the Steelers to dictate the action on the ground. Indy is going to force Pickett to beat them through the air, and based on what we’ve seen from the rookie so far that just doesn’t seem likely.

Pittsburgh is historically a great team against the spread, but that hasn’t been case this season. They’re 3-7 ATS, which is the fifth worst mark in the NFL.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-110