The 1-3 Los Angeles Chargers visit the 2-2 New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football on TSN, in a game we thought would mark the return of Michael Thomas.

The NFL’s reigning receiving king has been out of action since Week 1 due to a high ankle sprain, but it appears his return is now on hold.

 

 

The absence of Thomas means Alvin Kamara is set up for another heavy workload, which spells trouble for the Chargers’ defence.

Kamara leads all skill position players in touchdowns with seven, and gets a favourable matchup on Monday night against an L.A. unit that has been hit hard by injuries.

 

Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints

Line: Saints -7

Total: 50

 

The Saints Offence Marches On

Half of the Chargers’ starting defensive line is on IR, as are starting cornerback Chris Harris Jr. and stud safety Derwin James.

L.A.’s once feared pass rush ranks 18th in Pro Football Focus’ pass rush metrics, and the defence is fresh off surrendering five touchdown passes to Tom Brady.

 

 

The Chargers have struggled badly defending running backs out of the backfield, allowing the sixth most catches to enemy RBs.

That must be music to Kamara’s ears, who’s racked up 25 receptions in Thomas’ absence.

 

 

Kamara’s usage is always high, but this season he’s getting extra touches in the red zone. He’s seen 14 carries and seven targets inside the 20-yard line, which explains why he’s already exceeded his touchdown total from a season ago.

The Saints offence has actually performed quite well without Thomas, averaging 30 points per game in the three contests he’s missed.

New Orleans is always a threat to score 30+ in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and there’s little reason to believe the Chargers can stop them.

 

Tightening Up on D

On the other side of the ball, the Saints should have both top corner Marshon Lattimore and top pass rusher Marcus Davenport back on the field, after each sat out in Week 4.

New Orleans’ defence is holding opposing running backs to 3.57 yards a carry this season and will do everything they can to force rookie Justin Herbert to beat them.

 

 

Herbert has exceeded expectations through three starts, nearly upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs and throwing for 310 yards per outing.

He has a respectable 5-3 TD-to-INT rate, and could find success against the Saints 26th-ranked coverage unit if he’s afforded time. Los Angeles will be down both its starting right guard and starting right tackle, which doesn’t bode well for Herbert, who’s already been sacked six times this season.

 

Final Verdict

Monday will also mark L.A.’s first game without starting running back Austin Ekeler. Joshua Kelley will assume lead back duties, but he’s a big downgrade from Ekeler.

Injuries are mounting on both sides of the ball for the Chargers, and it may be too much to overcome against the high-powered Saints.

Sure, not having Thomas stings, but L.A. will struggle to contain Kamara and the off-season addition of Emmanuel Sanders gives Brees a reliable target out wide.

Speaking of Brees, he has some of the league’s most severe home-road splits, posting a significantly higher TD rate, yards per attempt, and completion percentage inside the dome as opposed to outdoors.

Monday’s matchup is one he will exploit, leading New Orleans to a much-needed win.


Pick: Saints -7

Upon Further Review

Back to Kelley for a moment.

The rookie started strong this season, posting at least 60 rushing yards in back-to-back games, but struggled in Weeks 3 and 4. He accumulated just 50 yards total on the ground in those two outings, while fumbling twice.

Yes, he will be L.A.’s primary back to start, but Justin Jackson will absolutely eat into his workload.

Once Ekeler went down in Week 4, Kelley only out-touched Jackson 12 to eight, and Jackson’s superior pass catching chops make him a candidate to see more playing time should the Chargers fall behind.

It all adds up to Kelley delivering a significantly worse performance than oddsmakers currently expect.

 

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