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In the 3+ years since we launched TSN EDGE, I’ve learned a lot of important lessons.

None of them is more important than this:

There is a significant difference between considering something more likely to happen than not, and that thing actually happening. 

Let me give you an example.

What if I told you that Randall Cobb had recorded 42+ receiving yards in three straight games, was coming off a season-high seven catches for 99 yards on 13 targets, and had a favourable match-up against the New York Jets on Sunday.

Would it be reasonable to assert that it is more likely than not that Cobb would deliver 39 percent or more of his overall production and finish with 39+ receiving yards versus New York?

I thought it seemed reasonable when I made Cobb over 38.5 receiving yards my FanDuel Best Bet for Sunday.

So, when Cobb didn’t get a single target in the first half of Sunday’s loss and recorded just one catch for eight yards before going down with a serious ankle injury, it reminded me of that important rule.

There’s a significant difference between considering something more likely to happen than not, and that thing actually happening.

Remember that rule anytime that you place a wager.

It will make you a better bettor.

Now, we’re on to Monday Night Football.

Here’s the Morning Coffee for Monday October 17th, 2022.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Monday Night Football

The last time we saw Russell Wilson in action, he was walking off the field following an ugly overtime loss to the Indianapolis Colts in which he missed a wide-open touchdown throw to K.J. Hamler that would have won the game.

A lot of football fans in Denver were looking forward to watching Russ cook this season.

Unfortunately for Broncos Country, the results to date have been underwhelmingly to say the least.

Wilson’s 37 Total QBR is his lowest mark through five team games of any season in his NFL career.

His four touchdown passes are his fewest through five games in his career.

On top of the lack of production, a couple of Wilson’s former teammates called him out this week.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that for as bad as the Denver offence has looked, they can still get back to .500 with a win tonight against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football.

The bad news is that the Broncos’ schedule is about to get a lot more difficult, and Wilson is not 100 per cent.

The Chargers stumbled a bit out of the gates with losses in Week 2 and Week 3 after Justin Herbert suffered cracked ribs in a loss to the rival Kansas City Chiefs.

However, Herbert has righted the ship with a combined 64 points in wins over the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns over the past two weeks.

Star running back Austin Ekeler has played a key role in LA’s success, accounting for a combined 308 scrimmage yards in those previous two wins. 

Ekeler has had some success against the Denver defence in previous years, particularly through the air.

Last season against the Broncos, Ekeler averaged 4.5 catches for 61 receiving yards in two meetings.

Despite recording a season-low 26 receiving yards in last week’s win over the Cleveland Browns, Ekeler has still averaged 42.8 receiving yards per game this season.

I think he’ll play a key role in the Chargers’ passing attack once again tonight.

I’ll play Ekeler over 37.5 receiving yards as my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football