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Happy Friday to everybody who reads this column!

If you have clicked on the link to the Morning Coffee and tailed my FanDuel Best Bets from Monday through Thursday, then you’re 4-0 this week.

There’s nothing better in this industry than celebrating big wins with others, and while yours truly was the victim of some awful beats this week, I believe I understand the formula to becoming even better at this game from an efficiency standpoint moving forward.

Right now, I’m operating at a 61.5 per cent win rate betting on the NFL this season.

However, the NFL picks I’ve given out as FanDuel Best Bets have hit at a 70.6 per cent win rate.

Dating back to Week 3, the FanDuel Best Bets featured in the Morning Coffee column have gone a combined 11-0, including the NHL pick that I gave out on Wednesday morning.

If you read this column or you follow me on Twitter, then you know that I often go all-in trying to capitalize on every possible edge I can find looking for winners.

While I don’t want to scale back on the content that I produce, perhaps a little more efficiency will make for a better experience.

That said, there’s nothing wrong with giving out one more FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s game as we look to make it five straight winners this week and a 12-0 run overall.

Here’s the Morning Coffee for Friday October 14th, 2022.

Wentz, Commanders Hang On For Narrow Win On Thursday Night Football

In yesterday’s column, I gave out Washington Commanders -1 over the Chicago Bears as my FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football.

While it was an absolute sweat, Washington held on for the 12-7 win.

Carson Wentz improved to 7-0 on Thursday Night Football.

 

Road teams improved to 30-19 against the spread on TNF over the past four seasons.

Unfortunately for yours truly, I couldn’t help but give out a couple more prop bets later in the day that didn’t cash.

Curtis Samuel had a 40-yard touchdown reception in his hands, but dropped it and finished with just two catches for six yards in what was by far his worst performance of the season.

 

That drop certainly didn’t help Carson Wentz’s passing totals, as he went 12-of-22 for 99 yards with three sacks in the narrow victory.

Would I have liked for Samuel to haul in that TD pass to finish in the green last night?

Yes.

Should I have added the two props to my card for Thursday Night Football rather than sticking with my FanDuel Best Bet on the Commanders -1.

No.

Should I have bet the under after highlighting that Thursday night games with totals in the 30’s were 18-7-2 to the under since 2000 and that the under had gone 11-5 in prime-time games this season in this column yesterday morning?

Yes.

 

Again, it isn’t that the results haven’t been positive overall to date.

It’s that they’ve been very positive in the face of injuries, bad beats, and most importantly – some bad decisions on my part.

The bad news is that I can’t go back and change the past.

The good news is that I’ve still hit at above a 60 per cent clip, I’ve identified areas where I can improve, and now I have the opportunity to refine the process to be even more efficient going forward.

We’re on to a FanDuel Best Bet for Friday.

A FanDuel Best Bet To Consider For Friday’s NHL Slate

The Montreal Canadiens surprised the hockey world and Leafs Nation in particular with a 4-3 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night.

For perspective, only two teams have longer odds to win the Stanley Cup than Montreal.

Meanwhile, only two teams have shorter odds to win the Cup than Toronto.

While one win won’t do much to change the perception of the Canadiens, I’m looking at them again tonight with a player prop from their game against the Detroit Red Wings.

Cole Caufield led the way for the Habs with two goals in the win over the Maple Leafs.

He finished with five shots on goal on nine attempts, leading Montreal with a 0.56 expected goals in all situations.

Nick Suzuki looks good to go after a pre-season injury, Josh Anderson is healthy, and that tandem did an excellent job of getting their best scorer the puck against Toronto.

I’m expecting that group to produce again tonight in Detroit.

FanDuel has set the over/under on Caufield’s shots on goal prop at 2.5 once again for tonight’s game.

Caufield averaged 2.8 shots on goal per game last season, but I think he’s primed to take another step as a pure scorer that has the potential to really improve his output as a 21-year-old with a head coach that he has thrived under in Martin St. Louis.

 

In case you missed it, he played over 18 minutes in the opener, including 3:32 of power play ice time.

I’ll make Caufield over 2.5 shots on goal my FanDuel Best Bet for Friday night’s NHL slate.