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Week 4 of the NFL season was one to remember.

For those who missed it, the TSN EDGE team kicked the week off by hitting on a FanDuel Same Game Parlay at +7900 for Thursday Night Football.

While it would have been tough to top that, my FanDuel Best Bets for Week 4 went 3-0 and I finished with a 20-9 record overall.

I’m not expecting to hit on 69 per cent of my NFL bets every week.

Still, is it unreasonable to expect to do better?

It certainly felt like there were some near misses that went against me.

Also, there’s nothing wrong with setting the bar high.

So, let’s get the NFL card started with an Early Lean for Week 5.

Here’s the Morning Coffee for Tuesday October 4th, 2022.

NFL Early Lean For Week 5

The Philadelphia Eagles were +2000 to win the Super Bowl entering Week 1 of the regular season.

After a 4-0 start, the Eagles are the third choice to win it all at FanDuel at +750.

Only the Buffalo Bills (+450) and the Kansas City Chiefs (+700) have shorter odds.

Those three teams are on the short list of teams capable of coming back from down 14+ points to win a game on any given Sunday.

In fact, we saw exactly that from two of them as Buffalo and Philadelphia both rallied from double-digit deficits to secure a win in Week 4.

For the Eagles, a 14-0 deficit turned into a 29-21 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars to remain the league’s only undefeated team.

Jalen Hurts finished with 242 scrimmage yards and one score.

Meanwhile, it was Miles Sanders’ turn to take the spotlight in the Philly offence as he recorded 156 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in the win.  

The fact that the Eagles were able to win and cover despite falling into a substantial hole early on is a testament to their talent and resilience, and I think we will see them thrive with a better start to their Week 5 contest against the Arizona Cardinals.

Per ESPN Stats & Info, Philadelphia’s offensive line ranks second in the NFL in Run Block Win Rate and seventh in Pass Block Win Rate. 

Hurts leads the NFL in QBR and yards per attempt when he has 2.5 seconds or more to throw the football.

 

Arizona’s defence ranks last in the NFL in sack percentage and defensive efficiency this season, so I’m counting on another strong performance from Hurts and Sanders in particular in Week 5.

On the other side of the football, the Eagles’ defence is primed for a favourable match-up against a Cardinals’ offence that is not at full strength.

Kyler Murray threw for just 207 yards in last week’s win over the Carolina Panthers. 

Cooper Rush and Jacoby Brissett are on the long list of quarterbacks that have produced a better QBR than Murray early on.

While 5.5 is a lot to spot a team on the road at FanDuel, Philadelphia has produced three straight wins by eight points or more over the Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders and the Jaguars over the past three weeks.

The Eagles have been on a roll, but we still haven’t seen them execute for a full four quarters yet, including their brutal start versus Jacksonville and zero second-half points scored against either the Vikings or the Commanders.

Even though a Week 6 showdown against the Dallas Cowboys looms, Philadelphia should be in good shape to beat Arizona by at least a touchdown on Sunday.

I’ll make Eagles -5.5 my NFL Early Lean for Week 5.