Feb 11, 2022
Morning Coffee: Bank On Volume With Burrow For Super Bowl LVI
It’s our last stop before Super Bowl LVI, so instead of one play, I’ll tee up three plays to consider for Sunday’s finale. Here’s the TSN EDGE Morning Coffee for Friday Feb. 11, 2022.

It’s our last stop before Super Bowl LVI.
With 21 weeks of National Football League action in the books, it’s time for one last game to determine the champion.
That means one last chance to finish the season on a high note, or a low note, depending on how Sunday’s bet card plays out.
This week, I decided to spread out the action and make one recommendation per day in this column.
Here are my recommended plays to date.
#NFL Super Bowl Bet Thread (Updated):
— Domenic Padula (@DomPadulaEDGE) February 11, 2022
Kupp O 8.5 Receptions +105
Jefferson O 17.5 Longest -110
Perine O 1.5 Receptions -110
Burrow O 0.5 INT -125
McPherson O 1.5 FG -110
Playoff Record: 45-38https://t.co/ZDkspj8dXx #GamblingTwitter #SuperBowl @TSN_Edge https://t.co/pfvVEyKK8O
Well, it’s my final article of the week, which means one last chance to break down my remaining plays for Super Bowl LVI.
So instead of one play, I’ll tee up three plays to consider for Sunday’s finale.
Here’s the TSN EDGE Morning Coffee for Friday Feb. 11, 2022.
Burrow In Line For Another Busy Night
The Cincinnati Bengals made it all the way to the Super Bowl as a 150-to-1 long shot on the shoulders of their second-year quarterback Joe Burrow.
Now, he’ll face his toughest test of the season on the game’s biggest stage.
While I’m somewhat unsure about how Burrow will perform against a talented and dynamic defence behind a suspect offensive line, I am confident that the Bengals will once again need to lean heavily on his arm whether that’s their plan going into the game or not.
Joe Burrow: 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year 🏆 pic.twitter.com/uCEuZEJPiS
— PFF (@PFF) February 11, 2022
The Los Angeles Rams gave up just 95.8 rushing yards per game this season – the fifth-best mark in the NFL.
In the Wild Card Round, they held the Arizona Cardinals to 61 rushing yards on 3.4 yards per carry.
In the Divisional Round, they held the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to 56 rushing yards on 3.6 yards per carry.
In the NFC Championship, they held the San Francisco 49ers to 50 rushing yards on 2.5 yards per carry.
Do you notice a trend here?
Meanwhile, Joe Mixon is coming off his best performance of the postseason after rushing for 88 yards on 4.2 yards per carry in the AFC Championship win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, he was held to an average of 51.0 rushing yards per game in Cincinnati’s previous two playoff wins against the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans.
Simply put, for as much as the Bengals might want to use the run game to keep the Rams honest, they’re going to need to put the football in Burrow’s hands early and often in order to have a chance in this game.
That has already been the case in all three of Cincinnati’s playoff wins, in which Burrow has finished with 34, 37 and 38 pass attempts.
The comeback story isn't over.
— NFL (@NFL) February 11, 2022
But Joe Burrow's 2021 season is already one to remember. #NFLHonors @JoeyB pic.twitter.com/qacYgloOlF
Burrow’s pass attempts prop is currently set at 35.5, which is a number he’s topped in back-to-back games and four of his last five outings dating back to the regular season.
I’m inclined to bank on volume with Burrow again this week.
I’ll add Burrow over 35.5 pass attempts to my Super Bowl 56 betting card.
Burrow, Bengals Need Tyler Boyd To Step Up
In addition to their stout run defence, the Rams are also excellent at generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Burrow was sacked nine times in the Divisional Round win against the Titans, and if he wants to avoid getting hit that much again in the Super Bowl, he’s going to need to get the football out of his hands quick.
With the L.A. defence making it a priority to limit Ja’Marr Chase as much as possible, and tight end C.J. Uzomah dealing with a knee injury, Burrow will need wide receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to step up.
While Higgins has been the more productive wide receiver of the two to this point, that production is baked into their receiving yards props.
Most spots have Higgins’ receiving yards prop at 69.5 right now.
Meanwhile, you can find Boyd’s receiving yards prop as low as 39.5 at a couple of spots.
Tyler Boyd has not dropped a slot target since Week 2 of the 2020 season
— PFF (@PFF) February 7, 2022
194 consecutive targets without a drop 👀
📸: @Bengals pic.twitter.com/lbEYMMCvCy
For as good as the LA defence has been, they have been susceptible over the middle of the field, which also happens to be where Boyd operates.
With Uzomah limited or potentially sidelined, Burrow will need to lean even more on Boyd over the middle in order to attack an L.A. weakness and get the football out of his hands as quickly as possible.
While Boyd has been held to 26 receiving yards or fewer in each of the Bengals’ three playoff games, he has averaged 4.7 targets per game in those contests, and I think that number should be higher in the Super Bowl.
"Tyler [Boyd] is a very underrated part of our offense."@JoeyB singing @boutdat_23's praises. #SBLVI
— NFL (@NFL) February 7, 2022
💻: #SBOpeningNight live on NFL Twitter pic.twitter.com/FNVvHLklZ1
It's also worth pointing out that before the postseason, Boyd finished with 40 receiving yards or more in four of his final five regular season games.
I’ll bet on Boyd’s most productive game of the playoffs coming when they need him the most on the biggest stage.
Boyd to go over 39.5 receiving yards is the play.
Don’t Completely Overlook Perine
While Burrow and Chase have dominated the Super Bowl spotlight for the Bengals, it’s important not to completely overlook key skill position players like Boyd, who could be in line for a boost based on the opponent and situation.
Here is another name to keep in mind: Samaje Perine.
Last Friday, I kicked off my Super Bowl props card with Perine to go over 1.5 receptions as an under-the-radar play and the logic was simple: Opponents have struggled to run the football against the Rams, and Perine just helped save Cincinnati’s season with a 41-yard touchdown reception in the AFC Championship.
How about an extra shoutout for Samaje Perine.
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 31, 2022
His 41-yard TD rumble jumpstarted one of the greatest comebacks in NFL postseason history. @samajp32
via @Bengals pic.twitter.com/bXyNMV7eAk
Perine has at least two receptions in nine of the Bengals’ 15 games dating back to Week 5, including three catches for 43 yards and a score on four targets in Kansas City.
Seven days later, I’m going to double down on Perine and take him to go over 8.5 receiving yards.
Perine has gone over that mark in 11 of his past 15 games.
Joe Burrow & Samaje Perine (41-yd TD)
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 30, 2022
🔸 Yards After Catch: 44
🔸 Expected YAC: 10
🔸 YAC Over Expected: +34
» The odds of Perine scoring when he caught the pass? 0.5%#CINvsKC | #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/iZYuu4o8ku
As mentioned already, Burrow’s going to have to throw the ball early and often, and with Uzomah potentially limited or out, Perine could be in line for a couple of additional targets as the primary pass-catching back in this offence.
I’ll add Perine to go over 8.5 receiving yards as my final play here in this column for Super Bowl LVI.