Ashleigh Barty entered the Australian Open as the consensus betting favourite.

After a dominant victory over Madison Keys in the semifinals, Barty is now an overwhelming favourite to win a Grand Slam title on her home soil for the first time.

Barty defeated Keys 6-1, 6-3 to move within one win of becoming the first Australian woman to win a home slam since Chris O’Neil did it in 1978.

While she would have been a betting favourite versus either of the other two semi-finalists, an upset win by Danielle Collins over Iga Swiatek means that Barty will be a heavy favourite once again with the title on the line.

Here’s the TSN EDGE Morning Coffee for Thursday Jan. 27, 2022.

Barty rolls into Australian Open final

Barty was the obvious favourite to win the women’s singles title entering the tournament at +280.

No other player had shorter odds than Naomi Osaka at +800.

Barty has certainly justified those odds over the past couple of weeks. The 25-year-old has dropped only 21 games en route to the final.

Per ESPN Stats & Info, no woman has reached the final dropping that few games since Monica Seles in 1993.

Barty needed only one hour and two minutes to defeat Keys in the semifinal.

The hometown favourite has played in five of the six shortest matches of the tournament, and the only one she didn’t play in ended early when Elena Rybakina was forced to retire versus Zhang Shaui.

For as dominant as Barty has looked, she hasn’t encountered much resistance, at least in terms of how oddsmakers view her opponents to this point.

Barty hasn’t faced a single opponent that was among the top-13 choices to win the tournament.

Based on the pre-tournament odds, her toughest opponent was Keys, who was 40-to-1 to win the title.

Her finals opponent Danielle Collins was 50-to-1.

Collins upset Swiatek 6-4, 6-1 as a +120 underdog for her first career major semifinal victory.

The 27th seed will be the fourth-lowest ranked Australian Open women’s finalist since 1980.

Barty opened at -500 for her finals match versus Collins, which is the exact same number she closed at for her semifinal match versus Keys.

Those odds represent an 83.3 per cent implied win probability, and a bettor would have to risk $500 just to win $100 wagering on Barty to win the match.

The comeback on Collins is +380, which means that a bettor that risked $100 on Collins would win $380 if she pulled off the upset.  

Medvedev, Nadal on collision course

On the men’s side, Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal are on a collision course to meet in the Australian Open final.

Medvedev, who entered the tournament at +145 to win the title, remains the consensus favourite at -105.

He’s -260 for his semifinal match with Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Meanwhile, Nadal entered the tournament at +750 to win his record 21st Grand Slam title and is now +240 to win it.

Nadal is -190 for his semifinal match with Matteo Berrettini.

TSN’s Australian Open coverage gets underway tonight at 7 p.m. ET.

NFC Championship pick

In Tuesday morning’s column, I explained my approach to betting on the AFC Championship game.

As for the NFC Championship, I leaned towards the San Francisco 49ers at +3.5 versus the Los Angeles Rams, but I waited to see how the market would develop before making a play.

While we did see the 49ers get to +3.5 -120, as of this morning I’m seeing them at 3.5 -110, which is the number I’ll take as my first play for the NFC Championship.

It starts with the San Francisco defence.

The defensive line has looked dominant in wins over the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers, and their ability to consistently generate pressure with four up front bolsters their coverage ability.

The 49ers have the pass rush to speed up the clock for Matt Stafford and force him to make difficult throws under pressure.

On the other side of the football, no team has run the ball more than San Francisco this postseason.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, the 49ers have called designed runs on 57 per cent of their plays this postseason, which would be the second-highest rate by any team over the last 10 postseasons.

The only team with a higher rush rate over that span is the 49ers’ team that went to the Super Bowl in 2019.

The commitment to Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel on the ground has been the key to winning the possession battle versus the Rams, shortening the game, and keeping the football away from Stafford.

Jimmy Garoppolo might be the weak link of the offence, but he’s averaged just 127.8 passing yards per game in his four playoff wins, so if he doesn’t turn the ball over San Francisco should have a chance to extend its impressive win streak versus L.A.

The 49ers have won six straight games versus the Rams, including a 27-24 overtime win in Inglewood in Week 17.

Kyle Shanahan and company should have a few wrinkles in place for an opponent they’ve dominated in recent years.

I’ll take the points and lock in San Francisco +3.5 as my first bet for the NFC Championship.