The 2021 NFL rookie quarterback class is regarded as one of the most talented groups in recent years.
But if the first month of the season is any indication, it’s going to take some time before bettors can rely on them.
Fading this year’s rookie quarterbacks has been a profitable approach for bettors in September.
Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Davis Mills are a combined 1-10 straight up and 1-10 against the spread.
Their lone win and cover came from a head-to-head matchup when Jones’ Patriots beat Wilson’s Jets 25-6 in Week 2.
That means that if you blindly bet on veteran quarterbacks against rookies in September, you’d be 10-0 right now.
If you haven’t faded the rookies yet, Thursday Night Football should be another good chance to get started.
Here is the Morning Coffee for Thursday, Sept. 30, 2021.
Bengals will be a popular teaser pick
The Cincinnati Bengals opened as a 6.5-point favourite against the Jacksonville Jaguars for Thursday Night Football.
That number has since moved to 7.5, and I’m not so sure we don’t see some money on Cincinnati before they kick off tonight on TSN.
Since 2016, Thursday night home favourites of at least seven points are a combined 13-1-1 against the spread, not including season openers.
Jacksonville has lost 18 straight games outright and is one of four teams that have yet to cover the spread this season.
With wins over the Minnesota Vikings and the Pittsburgh Steelers to start the season 2-1, the Bengals should have no problem taking care of business at home against the Jaguars.
Cincinnati should also be a popular teaser play with a chance to tease them down through the key numbers of 7 and 3.
A two-team, six-point teaser with the Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers gets you Cincinnati -1.5 and Tampa Bay -1 at -120.
A two-team, seven-point teaser with the Bengals and Buccaneers gets you both teams to win outright at -140.
While I lean towards Cincinnati to cover the 7.5 at home, I’ll lock in the latter tease as my best bet for Thursday Night Football.
AL wild-card race tightens
The American League wild-card race tightened even further on Wednesday night.
Bo Bichette hit two home runs to lead the Toronto Blue Jays (-110) to a 6-5 win over the New York Yankees.
Marcus Semien hit his 44th home run of the season, which is the most ever in a season by a primary second basemen.
The Boston Red Sox (-260) beat the Baltimore Orioles 6-0.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners (-120) stayed red hot with a 4-2 win over the Oakland Athletics. It was Seattle’s 12th straight win over Oakland.
After last night’s results, there are four teams separated by a total of two games.
The Yankees are still the front runner, but their betting odds to make the playoffs have shortened from -2000 to -650.
The Red Sox, a game back of New York, went from -150 to -160 to make it. The Blue Jays’ odds to make it shortened from +240 to +210. Finally, the Mariners went from +300 to +250 to make the postseason.
As of this morning, Toronto is a -140 favourite for tonight’s game against the Yankees, with AL Cy Young Award favourite Robbie Ray set to get the start opposite Corey Kluber.
Ray’s odds to win the AL Cy Young shortened to -600 after Gerrit Cole was roughed up by the Blue Jays on Wednesday night.
With a strong performance tonight, Ray could solidify his status as the obvious favourite and help Toronto climb one win closer to qualifying for the playoffs.
Alabama, Ole Miss set for marquee SEC showdown
We are just over 48 hours away from a marquee SEC showdown between the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday.
Alabama will be ready and motivated for it.
Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Crimson Tide are now at 80 per cent chance to reach the SEC Championship game.
Alabama is a +175 co-favourite to win the FBS national championship along with the Georgia Bulldogs.
However, the Crimson Tide have the slight edge to win the SEC Championship at -165, with Georgia at +150.
Meanwhile, Saturday’s battle between Alabama and Ole Miss will feature the top two choices to win the Heisman Trophy in quarterbacks Matt Corral and Bryce Young.
Corral is down to +150 from +1400 to win that award at the start of the season. Young entered Week 1 at +900 and is now +300.